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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I was wondering that too... seems like not having that ULL get pulled in would eventually be better.

So I wasn't being stupid when I gave Tim's post a "like"?

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I just experienced the craziest day of my life. Normal, routine doctor's visit quickly spiraled into a seven hour stay in the ER for a MRI scan to check for malignant tumors or multiple sclerosis. Tha

Downvote this post if you want snow.

Good morning,  As you know, back in late December I decided to end my jovial "ranting" here among you soulless bastard's to focus on more personal matters.  Well despite my better judgement

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7 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

I got the rug back from the raccoon, he hasn't been around today.... yet.

If you would kindly tell him to fug off, it rhymes with rug so he should get the jist. 

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Just now, Cloud said:

If you would kindly tell him to fug off, it rhymes with rug so he should get the jist. 

I already did when I found my rug this time, he doesn't even believe in 18z runs either.

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It just seems very suspicious to me how easily the ECMWF wants to dig that thing out over the ocean.  Very possible it's wrong.  No way to know for now.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Let’s face it. We’re all a bit cautious when it comes to models saying snow days away. It’s happened too many times, the closer we get, the worse the model runs, and it becomes a nothing burger. This time though, I don’t know what it is, I feel different. This may be a historic couple weeks ahead IMO. 

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14 minutes ago, Acer said:

We are all gonna get spanked when Jim get's on here again.

Not me! I’m staying on board until the ship sinks to the bottom of the sea. Would love to hang out with SpongBob and Patrick anyways....win win

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Mark Nelsen is going to bite 100% on the EURO solution if it stays consistent with the 00z run. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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4 minutes ago, Snowdrift said:

Alert, Weenie post: Never bet against the Pacific

It's quite a battle brewing tbh, so it should be fun to follow regardless. A really legit cold airmass goes to battle with the Pacific. Obviously I'm rooting hard for the TPV. 

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8 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

Let’s face it. We’re all a bit cautious when it comes to models saying snow days away. It’s happened too many times, the closer we get, the worse the model runs, and it becomes a nothing burger. This time though, I don’t know what it is, I feel different. This may be a historic couple weeks ahead IMO. 

Always comes down to the actual hour of the event.....so I wait 

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On one hand, I’d like to mod preview all of the weenies that jump at every opportunity to call an event dead because one or two runs on a Sunday evening pull back a little.

On the other hand if everything plays out, it will be 5spooky6me to compare this event to 2019. The same mini meltdowns, the same naysayers, the same hype, the same “snow for me but not for thee” attitudes.

One thing is for sure, stop sharing links from other model sites or Facebook. Please for the love of snow, save the picture and upload it to your post. The dead links are really irritating.

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2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

This is far from decided but the cluster on the 18z EPS seems to be around central OR.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nw-mslp_with_low_locs-3088000.png

Certainly not the snowless Vancouver landfall doomsday I think some were expecting.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

This is far from decided but the cluster on the 18z EPS seems to be around central OR.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nw-mslp_with_low_locs-3088000.png

Looks a lot better than the Op. How do 850mb anomalies look?

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

18z vs 12z EPS 850mb mean for Thursday AM...

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nw-t850-3066400.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nw-t850-3066400-1.png

Looks like quite a shift north from the 12Z run.  What doEs the mean snowfall map look like?

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18Z EPS is also quite a bit warmer and farther north than the 12Z run on Friday morning.

18Z run on top... 12Z run on the bottom.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-3131200 (6).png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-3131200 (7).png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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33 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

For those who don't remember, in January 2011 models showed a series of lows making landfall far enough South for literally 2-3 feet of snow from PDX to Everett. It got within about 4 days and then the PV pushed West of BC out over the ocean instead if digging South over us which forced the lows further North. Seattle got 3" of overunning snow and Bellingham got about 9" from two storms but that was about it.

It helped that it was preceded by one of the coldest mid November outbreaks on record and followed by one of the coldest late February outbreaks on record. Each event had some big winners with 12"+ totals including the January 2011 one. Parksville had around a food of snow early on followed by the overrunning event later in the week in the January.

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The end of the 18Z EPS on Saturday morning... comparing last few runs its been a steady shift northward at that time.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nw-t850_anom_stream-3239200.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

This is far from decided but the cluster on the 18z EPS seems to be around central OR.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nw-mslp_with_low_locs-3088000.png

Actually pretty encouraging to see. Can you post this for the 12z ECMWF too please?

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My trademark phrase. DEVASTATING TRENDZ#, has been sitting waiting for a night like tonight!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Great performance by TOM BRADY in the first half. Can he finish it off?!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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18Z EPS control run is downright ugly for Saturday morning...

 

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-nw-t850_anom_stream-3239200.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My trademark phrase. DEVASTATING TRENDZ#, has been sitting waiting for a night like tonight!

My concern I mentioned last night with the arctic trough elongating stalling to the north looks to be coming to fruition. UNLESS the GFS/GEFS is leading the way. Hard to believe that given we're in the 3-5 day window now.

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18Z EPS control snowfall through Saturday morning... still looks good for WA but this a shift north from the 12Z run.

18Z run on top and 12Z run on the bottom...

 

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-nw-total_snow_10to1-3239200.png

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-nw-total_snow_10to1-3239200 (1).png

  • Rain 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Meteorologist

When I compared the trough over the B.C. from 00z to tonight's 18z on the ECMWF, each run has weakened the western extent of the TPV. The question is when does the weakening stop?

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4 minutes ago, Esquimalt said:

Looks like quite a shift north from the 12Z run.  What doEs the mean snowfall map look like?

We're probably in a decent spot for the big overrunning event at the end of this. It seems to be trending away from a highly resistant airmass that will suppress/dry out anything that comes close.

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1 minute ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Still looks fine for Western Washington or no? Lots of negativity here but mean snowfall looks great. 

The issue is the sizeable shifts north with each ECMWF run... when does it stop?    I was surprised how far north the 18Z ECMWF shifted.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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What a bizarre situation.  The 18z EPS ensemble keeps Seattle solidly cold and snowy for a decently long time in spite of a bad looking 500mb setup.  It appears the cold air being so close beforehand keeps it cold as long as the surface gradients remain offshore of northerly.  The surface stuff is excellent for Seattle.  And I'm still thinking the chances are good the PV lobe will sink further south than progged.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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The issue is ev

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

The issue is the sizeable shifts north with each ECMWF run... when does it stop?    I was surprised how far north the 18Z ECMWF shifted.

The issue is how you take 4 to 5 day models as gospel.

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15 minutes ago, iFred said:

On one hand, I’d like to mod preview all of the weenies that jump at every opportunity to call an event dead because one or two runs on a Sunday evening pull back a little.

On the other hand if everything plays out, it will be 5spooky6me to compare this event to 2019. The same mini meltdowns, the same naysayers, the same hype, the same “snow for me but not for thee” attitudes.

One thing is for sure, stop sharing links from other model sites or Facebook. Please for the love of snow, save the picture and upload it to your post. The dead links are really irritating.

Don’t worry ! The Gin Martini picture will not go away....I’m smart 

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In 4 or 5 days this thing might look like a far off dream.  Visions of -20 850's and 3 feet of snow and prolonged cold turn into 46 degrees with a nice mixture of drizzle and fog.

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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Conflicting reports!! 
 

And for the record I have only gone into winter cancel mode once today! I’m pretty proud of myself!! 

I DON'T care what YOU have to do superstitiously but DO IT goddammit, DO IT!

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10 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

Actually pretty encouraging to see. Can you post this for the 12z ECMWF too please?

Here's the 12z EPS for same time. This shows mainly two camps - some northern around the Columbia and some southern around S OR. 18z EPS cluster seems to have split the difference.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nw-mslp_with_low_locs-3088000-1.png

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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2 minutes ago, Acer said:

In 4 or 5 days this thing might look like a far off dream.  Visions of -20 850's and 3 feet of snow and prolonged cold turn into 46 degrees with a nice mixture of drizzle and fog.

This winter has been a forecaster's dream in the sense of that forecast working out about 99.6% of the time so far. Copy/paste weather!

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9 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Still looks fine for Western Washington or no? Lots of negativity here but mean snowfall looks great. 

It's actually very good.  Just as snowy (actually snowier for the 3 to 6 day period) and almost as cold as the 12z at hour 144 (hour 150 12z).

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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