February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[Requiem]

I’m concerned but it looks like we come out okay thanks to the trusty Gorge. Gonna bank on the deadly accurate mid-range euro hopefully 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

King euro. That model is so far ahead of the gfs it's comical 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, wxmet said:

Still looks like a good run for PDX

Yeah... precip just does not want to lift north any further.   But its such a huge change for the GFS that I expect future runs will be even farther north. 

 

[Cloud]

Nice cave to the Euro. 

[wxmet]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... precip just does not want to lift north any further.   But its such a huge change for the GFS that I expect future runs will be even farther north. 

 

Agreed.

[TT-SEA]

Precip on Friday morning... and look at that beast to the west.   That is going to be the next snowstorm on this run. 

 

[FroYoBro]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Lol what is the GFS smoking. All of a sudden there's a healthy precip shield way up north. This model is flailing. 

Just wait until you see the runs in two days!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The key to all of this is the massive cold pool to tap into. This is not a typical overrunning. Like in past big snow periods you see heavy snow, a warm up for 18 hrs then below freezing again. This could play out like that.

[TT-SEA]

Here comes the Saturday storm...

 

[Timmy]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Precip on Friday morning... and look at that beast to the west.   That is going to be the next snowstorm on this run. 

 

 

Hopefully it’s cold enough 

[wxmet]

Can’t say this enough this is such a huge change from 00z. There must have been better sampling this cycle.

[Cloud]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... precip just does not want to lift north any further.   But its such a huge change for the GFS that I expect future runs will be even farther north. 

 

Morning Euro will be telling as to where it wants to place moisture —  the GFS is just playing catch up at this point. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The key to all of this is the massive cold pool to tap into. This is not a typical overrunning. Like in past big snow periods you see heavy snow, a warm up for 18 hrs then below freezing again. This could play out like that.

Yeah... usually the models show the cold being scoured out but they are not even trying to show that now.   

[Phil]

What begins with a G and rhymes with doofus?

[Timmy Supercell]

It's crazy the difference in temperature from here to Redmond on 02/06/2014. They were single digits while I was pushing 40 that day during the snow. 

[Requiem]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The key to all of this is the massive cold pool to tap into. This is not a typical overrunning. Like in past big snow periods you see heavy snow, a warm up for 18 hrs then below freezing again. This could play out like that.

The fact that the cold pool so so potent definitely gives me hope for PDX— hopefully bodes well further south.

[TT-SEA]

A Portland special on Saturday per this new run... with a roaring east wind for all. 

[Timmy]

[Cloud]

This looks like it could be a VERY snowy solution for the region with the weekend storm. Assuming it verifies. 

[TT-SEA]

Precip can't overcome the east wind up here on this run... here is Saturday afternoon.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This is litterly a dream scenario for snow chances West of the cascades of Oregon and WA. 

[Ray]

Good morning, looks like we bottomed out at 38 for a low.  Plenty of potential ahead for sure.  We just have to be prepared for these models to be dancing back and forth over the coming days.  Still hoping for something great though.

[Cloud]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Precip can't overcome the east wind up here on this run... here is Saturday afternoon.

 

Yeah looks like the east wind and low dp is just eating everything up.

[TT-SEA]

That low and all that precip just runs into a wall of east wind next weekend and falls apart.

 

[TT-SEA]

And here comes another system on Sunday...

 

[FroYoBro]

Portland gets just a little bit of snow on this run. Definitely in a dangerous spot and wouldn’t be surprised to see this end up like February 2019. 

[Christensen87]

Huge east windstorm. Foothill locations should definitely start preparing. 

[wxmet]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

That extremely dry air is not letting precip fall from Seattle northward. Going to need some strong precip rates to overcome that. 

Or just a better low track to increase the dps closer to the temp. Would prefer to see a system moving to the north from the south than vice-versa. 

[Cloud]

Single digit dp for Seattle with a strong east wind. That system is getting obliterated as it approaches.

[wxmet]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

PDX is in the sweet spot again. 

Total snow through Saturday afternoon...

I’m in the hole on the GFS which probably means I’m in the perfect spot

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

PDX is in the sweet spot again. 

Total snow through Saturday afternoon...

 

Might be more helpful to separate out all the systems.    Here is just Friday morning through Sunday morning.

 

[Requiem]

2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Portland gets just a little bit of snow on this run. Definitely in a dangerous spot and wouldn’t be surprised to see this end up like February 2019. 

Definitely worried for this, but at least there’s that persistent offshore flow and cold pool this time around.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

And by 10PM Saturday they are closing in on a foot...

Pretty insane difference between HIO and PDX/TTD, almost a foot difference due to the East winds eating up all the moisture. I'm not going to start taking any of these snow maps seriously until 2 or 3 days out. But this map shows the huge potential for some lucky soul(s) to SCORE big within the next week or so. 

[FroYoBro]

2 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Definitely worried for this, but at least there’s that persistent offshore flow and cold pool this time around.

It will change plenty of times before the time actually comes. Just pray to Tim the weather god each night! 

[wxmet]

12z RGEM

 

[TT-SEA]

Seattle area finally gets in on the action on Monday...

 

[Timmy Supercell]

7 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

Huge east windstorm. Foothill locations should definitely start preparing. 

These can be brutal in the winter, well at least it won't cause fires this time.

[Requiem]

10 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

Huge east windstorm. Foothill locations should definitely start preparing. 

This apply to the Oregon foothills as well?

[Cloud]

9 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

Huge east windstorm. Foothill locations should definitely start preparing. 

Power outage in sub freezing temps? No thanks! People have died in the past due to carbon monoxide poisoning because of the stuff they had to do to keep warm.

[Timmy]

Gem caving too