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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Power outage in sub freezing temps? No thanks! People have died in the past due to carbon monoxide poisoning because of the stuff they had to do to keep warm.

If this place lost power in an arctic setup that would be disastrous. We can't use the fireplace either because the chimney was blocked up years ago.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

06z EPS control model looked quite snowy by Friday night. 

This is a slight shift northward from it's 00z run.

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-nw-total_snow_10to1-3196000.png

Thinking the morning Euro is gonna trend more north as well. Guess we’ll find out soon. 

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2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Thinking the morning Euro is gonna trend more north as well. Guess we’ll find out soon. 

Yeah... the 12Z GFS has me thinking the northward trend might continue.    It was such a dramatic shift to the north.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Hope the EURO sticks to its guns, as long as we get that offshore flow to tap into the cold air PDX is in the running.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... the 12Z GFS has me thinking the northward trend might continue.    It was such a dramatic shift to the north.

 

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... the 12Z GFS has me thinking the northward trend might continue.    It was such a dramatic shift to the north.

Except I don’t think it’ll be much of a shift. Still leaving a snowy solution for most, so I like to assume the Euro at this point is just making adjustments to details. PDX posters shouldn’t be worry about missing out on the snow as the GFS tends to be more dramatic. 

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1 minute ago, FroYoBro said:

Who is the mystery person with no name and no picture?

It's me PuyallupJon reimagined for the next four years.

Black is beautiful and the best best thing ever. Everything black is wonderful and amazing.

I've seen these types of situatations unfold before.  With the initial shot I'd be happy if things went too far south.  So many times the cold air doesn't make it here because of some pesky low not dropping far enough south.  The goodies get held up at the border and then slide east.

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2 minutes ago, ..... said:

It's me PuyallupJon reimagined for the next four years.

Black is beautiful and the best best thing ever. Everything black is wonderful and amazing.

I've seen these types of situatations unfold before.  With the initial shot I'd be happy if things went too far south.  So many times the cold air doesn't make it here because of some pesky low not dropping far enough south.  The goodies get held up at the border and then slide east.

Some flashes of lightning through that window would top it off 🤪 ⛈️

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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The GEM/ICON camp look great for everyone. 

GFS/EURO are great for PDX - north, but shifting north quickly. Right now the odds are not good anywhere south of PDX for cold and snow. Probably 50/50 for PDX. Seattle still looks to be in a good spot. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Watch PDX get like two inches of ice lol 

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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The GEM literally parks the PV over Central Oregon. I have a feeling the crazy model solutions will continue. 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_32.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, ..... said:

Yeah, the window didn't turn out so well in the picture but I'm glad someone(you) saw it.

This is going to be a fun and wild week.  Are you ready for it?

Definitely. I think a lot of the time the models underestimate this basin down here. I've seen it a lot.

3" could translate to 8-9". We'll see. I forget what these models were doing in Jan 2017 at my place.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 minute ago, Timmy said:

The odds aren’t good south of pdx

Bellingham to Wilsonville maybe.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Just now, Requiem said:

Bellingham to Wilsonville maybe.

Except Wilsonville is one of the worst metro spots for snowfall (they do good in some wind events however).

My brother has lived there for 7 years. He hasn't had a real snowstorm since 2008 in Hillsboro.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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The GEM develops a lot of juice along the arctic frontal boundary. I think there is a good chance that feature ends up being a lot snowier than modeled, especially in the Puget Sound area. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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