February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[wxmet]

Just now, Fircrest said:

This is so much fun. Can you imagine getting paid to do this as a professional?! I almost majored in meteorology but didn't because of all the math involved.  Should have done it anyway.

First sight of the quasi-geostrophic height tendency equation can be intimidating 

[Requiem]

3 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Except Wilsonville is one of the worst metro spots for snowfall (they do good in some wind events however).

My brother has lived there for 7 years. He hasn't had a real snowstorm since 2008 in Hillsboro.

Maybe Bellingham to Oregon City then haha, I’m concerned for those south of Keizer.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It is pertinent to note the GFS is all over the place. 06z completely different than the 12z. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

Maybe Bellingham to Oregon City then haha, I’m concerned for those south of Keizer.

Oregon City is one of the worst spots in the metro for snow. Warn nose central over there. lol

[mtep]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

Maybe Bellingham to Oregon City then haha, I’m concerned for those south of Keizer.

This means absolutely nothing, but I have a real good feeling about Portland this time around. 

[SalemDuck]

The snow maps are probably underdoing it if you go with the standard 10:1. With this cold of an airmass to work with we’d see 12-15:1 ratios if not more 

[Timmy Supercell]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

Maybe Bellingham to Oregon City then haha, I’m concerned for those south of Keizer.

Yeah that's a little better

There were a few times he's had powerflashes (even one time I visited him in Dec 2015) middle of the night while most locations were topping 45-50mph. 

[Requiem]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oregon City is one of the worst spots in the metro for snow. Warn nose central over there. lol

Yikes my southern bounds are just landing on every crappy snow microclimate lol. Ok Bellingham to... how’s Lake O?

[High Desert Mat?]

PV over central Oregon . Ya right. What kind of temps would that be over in Bend?

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, wxmet said:

First sight of the quasi-geostrophic height tendency equation can be intimidating 

Nah that was a piece of cake...

...and I’m the second coming of Christ.

Talk about brain stew.

[Cloud]

2 minutes ago, Fircrest said:

This is so much fun. Can you imagine getting paid to do this as a professional?! I almost majored in meteorology but didn't because of all the math involved.  Should have done it anyway.

Feel the same way, I majored in EE but I find a lot of my passion revolve around weather and analyzing weather data/models. Which isn’t very different from my everyday work but it’s a lot more fun as a hobby. Plus, weather is a lot more dynamic. I’d imagine this is probably a lot of fun and stressful for the mets.

[Timmy Supercell]

2 minutes ago, SalemDuck said:

The snow maps are probably underdoing it if you go with the standard 10:1. With this cold of an airmass to work with we’d see 12-15:1 ratios if not more 

20:1 if we're talking Jan 3 2017 here. There was perhaps an inch of precipitation at KLMT and 20" fell.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I just looked at my weather channel app, for Gresham it's now showing for Wed to Sun: 37/27, 28/18, 28/21, 34/23, 39/27.

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It is pertinent to note the GFS is all over the place. 06z completely different than the 12z. 

When is it ever not all over the place?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, SalemDuck said:

The snow maps are probably underdoing it if you go with the standard 10:1. With this cold of an airmass to work with we’d see 12-15:1 ratios if not more 

How are you feeling about things in Salem? The snowy solutions really seem to thread the needle. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

26 minutes ago, ..... said:

It's me PuyallupJon reimagined for the next four years.

Black is beautiful and the best best thing ever. Everything black is wonderful and amazing.

I've seen these types of situatations unfold before.  With the initial shot I'd be happy if things went too far south.  So many times the cold air doesn't make it here because of some pesky low not dropping far enough south.  The goodies get held up at the border and then slide east.

When you see a red door do you want to paint it black?

[Blizzard777]

8 minutes ago, Fircrest said:

This is so much fun. Can you imagine getting paid to do this as a professional?! I almost majored in meteorology but didn't because of all the math involved.  Should have done it anyway.

 

[Prairiedog]

20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The GEM/ICON camp look great for everyone. 

GFS/EURO are great for PDX - north, but shifting north quickly. Right now the odds are not good anywhere south of PDX for cold and snow. Probably 50/50 for PDX. Seattle still looks to be in a good spot. 

Having the snow would be what many of us hoped for but how does that affect cold going forward?  Is that the beginning of the end if the low keeps going north or NE?  Ideally we want it going west to east south of PDX for snow that lasts a few days.  Obviously wouldn't get as much snow.  I'm just trying to see how to have my snow and cold afterwards for more than a day.  Cant see how we stay cold very long after it possibly snows.  What am I missing?

Not holding my breath that the arctic front will deliver much our way.

[Phil]

Archive that CMC run. Might be the craziest one you’ll ever see.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

20:1 if we're talking Jan 3 2017 here. There was perhaps an inch of precipitation at KLMT and 20" fell.

I saw that ratio all the time in the Rockies. It easily possible if it is cold enough.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Yikes my southern bounds are just landing on every crappy snow microclimate lol. Ok Bellingham to... how’s Lake O?

Lake O is fine. McMinnville/FG would be two places who would probably do well. 

[Fircrest]

10 minutes ago, wxmet said:

First sight of the quasi-geostrophic height tendency equation can be intimidating 

Huh? Right....

[TacomaWaWx]

More crazy runs overnight. Gonna be some fun times coming. 

[SalemDuck]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

How are you feeling about things in Salem? The snowy solutions really seem to thread the needle. 

I don’t live there anymore (in Tualatin now) but never bothered to change my name. But my parents live there still. I’d be pretty nervous if I lived south of Wilsonville. Wouldn’t take a lot to get warm nosed. The one saving grace is the airmass east side is top tier so it could bail everyone out.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

15 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

 

Snowy!

[Timmy Supercell]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Lake O is fine. McMinnville/FG would be two places who would probably do well. 

Recently several inches fell in FG not long ago in late January. I'd say a decent spot.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Prairiedog said:

Having the snow would be what many of us hoped for but how does that affect cold going forward?  Is that the beginning of the end if the low keeps going north or NE?  Ideally we want it going west to east south of PDX for snow that lasts a few days.  Obviously wouldn't get as much snow.  I'm just trying to see how to have my snow and cold afterwards for more than a day.  Cant see how we stay cold very long after it possibly snows.  What am I missing?

It looks like all models cool things down after the Thursday system. Looking at that one again, it is kind of horrifying how much ZR it shows, down to N. Douglas county even. Which makes me think at worst there will be a very strong low level push of cold air. 

[SalemDuck]

Gem gets a little cold 

[Perturbed Member]

Those snow maps sure look great for PDX right now but you don't want to be in the sweet spot this far out. Really playing with fire. Just a single north trend away from turning into a quick snow to rain with minimal accumulation event. If I had to guess right now, I think the sweet spot ends up somewhere north of PDX.

This is gonna be one long and exhausting week of model riding.

[Timmy Supercell]

4 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Recently several inches fell in FG not long ago in late January. I'd say a decent spot.

Here's that... Jan 26.

[Prairiedog]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It looks like all models cool things down after the Thursday system. Looking at that one again, it is kind of horrifying how much ZR it shows, down to N. Douglas county even. Which makes me think at worst there will be a very strong low level push of cold air. 

The ZR would be ugly.  I should be thankful for even a nice inch these days but we're all hyped and have a lot of expectations.  It would be orgasmic to beat the warm tongue and get 6-10" of snow.  That would be very satisfying to watch that fall.  We just get greedy when we see the possibilities.  I hate seeing all that snow turn to slop in a day or two.  Give me a couple highs at or below freezing after the snow, then I will be at peace.  My fruit flies are so confused right now. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Wow Nws point forecast going all in at my location with a 33/23 day forecasted Thursday. Weather app even crazier with 2 sub freezing highs lol. 

[Blizzard777]

Beautiful clear sky’s this morning locally if you happen to actually look outside! 

40*

Thoughts of 2/2019 remind me my screentime was up 1,000 percent

[Requiem]

Just now, nwsnow said:

Those snow maps sure look great for PDX right now but you don't want to be in the sweet spot this far out. Really playing with fire. Just a single north trend away from turning into a quick snow to rain with minimal accumulation event. If I had to guess right now, I think the sweet spot ends up somewhere north of PDX.

This is gonna be one long and exhausting week of model riding.

At the same time I like that we have the amount of cold air to tap into that we do. In the end I feel like areas that are influenced by the gorge will be okay.

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, nwsnow said:

Those snow maps sure look great for PDX right now but you don't want to be in the sweet spot this far out. Really playing with fire. Just a single north trend away from turning into a quick snow to rain with minimal accumulation event. If I had to guess right now, I think the sweet spot ends up somewhere north of PDX.

This is gonna be one long and exhausting week of model riding.

I get the feeling it’ll actually work out alright...sometimes these things don’t trend north after all. With a massive supply of cold air to work with too...I’m getting a good feeling about this being great on a regional scale. We have more cards in our favor than usual. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, nwsnow said:

Those snow maps sure look great for PDX right now but you don't want to be in the sweet spot this far out. Really playing with fire. Just a single north trend away from turning into a quick snow to rain with minimal accumulation event. If I had to guess right now, I think the sweet spot ends up somewhere north of PDX.

This is gonna be one long and exhausting week of model riding.

Yup… if I took all those model runs seriously I’d be in full-fledged pity party mode right now because they show me getting the short end of the stick snow-wise. This far out, we really don’t know. The good thing is that there are now genuine possibilities for all. Beats the pants off model runs showing nothing but endless torching.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, SalemDuck said:

I don’t live there anymore (in Tualatin now) but never bothered to change my name. But my parents live there still. I’d be pretty nervous if I lived south of Wilsonville. Wouldn’t take a lot to get warm nosed. The one saving grace is the airmass east side is top tier so it could bail everyone out.

Yeah, I'm nervous because I've seen this movie before. On the other hand there is really still no consistency with the models. People are latching onto the details/runs that are best for their areas and acting like they are a trend, but there is really just a lot of inconsistency.

I think you are right, this will be a top-tier airmass east of the Cascades. Often the models underestimate the depth of the cold air that can produce in the valley (Eugene was forecast to have ZR in February 2014.). 

Still a very wide range of possibilities. By the end of the week I could have cold rain, tremendous snow, or clear skies and lows in the single digits. 

[Blizzard777]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Wow Nws point forecast going all in at my location with a 33/23 day forecasted Thursday. Weather app even crazier with 2 sub freezing highs lol. 

Feeling really good about this! Faucet covers go on later today

[Gummy]

It will be interesting to see if Seattle can dip below 30 for a daytime high. I don't think that has happened in February since 2011.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hey Phil. What the heck is up with the GEM?!