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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


BLI snowman

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18z is running. All options on the table! Total bust! Partial bust! Apocalyptic snowstorm that I for some bizarre reason think about in terms of displacing people in tents from outside of my favorite Applebees!

Get ready!

Anything less than 14" of snow in Portland and I'm gonna lose my mind!

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11 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

A little surprised to see a WWA for EPSL tonight.

NWS Seattle must be banking on the models showing a heftier CZ.

We'll see but I don't think they need to include much of Pierce County all other forecasts is just dry. Guess I couldn't rule out a snow flurry in the higher hills of Pierce County well above 500'

Edited by ChrisTACWX96
Misspell
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Eastside Tacoma/Salishan, WA. Elv 263ft

Family home in Spanaway, WA. Elv 413ft

☥𓂀✡️

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6 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

18z is running. All options on the table! Total bust! Partial bust! Apocalyptic snowstorm that I for some bizarre reason think about in terms of displacing people in tents from outside of my favorite Applebees!

Get ready!

Anything less than 14" of snow in Portland and I'm gonna lose my mind!

As it turns out, a pretty large encampment has materialized kitty corner to the Applebee’s in Orchards. Reached for comment late this morning, residents were reportedly big fans of recent model developments.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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37 minutes ago, Acer said:

I actually do think it's going to end up a slushfest for a day then back to normal.

I’m really catching a January 2012 and or January 2020 vibe...Still lovely events for us up here but fairly short in duration. The PNA looks terrible for anything sustained. 

D48D0107-FAA7-4209-8B17-06304169FC55.jpeg

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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At first glance the 18z seems like it could be a jog south, with less energy being absorbed into that northern PV lobe, but the devil is in the details, and we'll find out soon enough.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 minute ago, fubario said:

if tim posts it we're in trouble

I know I am new here, but he does seem to have a certain bias and is rather 'selective' with the maps he chooses to post. Am I way off base here? I apologize if I am completely wrong.

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2 minutes ago, Gummy said:

I know I am new here, but he does seem to have a certain bias and is rather 'selective' with the maps he chooses to post. Am I way off base here? I apologize if I am completely wrong.

You aren't.  If there is a warm outlier to be found, somewhere deep down in a hidden bunker, he will find it.

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4 minutes ago, Gummy said:

I know I am new here, but he does seem to have a certain bias and is rather 'selective' with the maps he chooses to post. Am I way off base here? I apologize if I am completely wrong.

You wouldn’t have been wrong in the early 2000’s when we were originally on The Old Farmers Almanac forums and Tim was posting HOTT MRF maps, and you wouldn’t be wrong now! But it’s good he posts the maps as it keeps people from living completely in fantasy land. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 minute ago, Gummy said:

I know I am new here, but he does seem to have a certain bias and is rather 'selective' with the maps he chooses to post. Am I way off base here? I apologize if I am completely wrong.

let's just say you're not the only person making this observation

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1 minute ago, Gummy said:

I know I am new here, but he does seem to have a certain bias and is rather 'selective' with the maps he chooses to post. Am I way off base here? I apologize if I am completely wrong.

There are a few people on this forum who selectively post certain maps, whether to enforce a narrative supporting their personal preferences, or to get some reactions, and sometimes even both. The best thing you can do for yourself is to laugh along with everyone else and not get caught up in the drama.

Tim is not god, and he doesn't control your day. Most of the time he posts informative, useful stuff. But sometimes he'll post warm EPS maps while everyone is having fun, just to stir the pot. He'll deny this claim if you ask him or call him out on it, but he knows what he's doing, and the rest of us do as well. It's all in good fun, though, and there's nothing meaningful, let alone malicious about it. You'll come to find that you care less and less, and eventually you'll find it just as funny as he does.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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I will say you will not see much Tim posting either way when it comes to the 6 and 18z’s...He doesn’t believe in them. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

There are a few people on this forum who selectively post certain maps, whether to enforce a narrative supporting their personal preferences, or to get some reactions, and sometimes even both. The best thing you can do for yourself is to laugh along with everyone else and not get caught up in the drama.

Tim is not god, and he doesn't control your day. Most of the time he posts informative, useful stuff. But sometimes he'll post warm EPS maps while everyone is having fun, just to stir the pot. He'll deny this claim if you ask him or call him out on it, but he knows what he's doing, and the rest of us do as well. It's all in good fun, though, and there's nothing meaningful, let alone malicious about it. You'll come to find that you care less and less, and eventually you'll find it just as funny as he does.

Nope, the Euro is god and Tim is his messenger. 

Gave me a good chuckle that you had to reassure people that Tim isn't god and doesn't control their day or the weather 😆.

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Large closed off low approaching from the Pacific on this run. Could be a fierce battleground situation here...

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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2 hours ago, Kayla said:

I can never understand this. Why do people gas up their cars before winter storms?? If it's so bad then you aren't driving anywhere anyway. If it's not so bad why can't you just fill up at the gas station like any other day? Do people think the gas station tanks are going to freeze over or something?? 

2006 wind storm I did not fill up my car.  We lost power for a week and my wood supply ran out for keeping one room warm.   Found some wood available but and hour out of town.  Gas stations locally were all shut down.  It was a nail biter getting to my destination and hoping a station would be open so I could get back home.  So good thing to fill up just in case.  Ya never know what scenario is going to play out.  

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Caving to the GEM... ;)

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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9 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

I just bought a house in North Bend in December after living at sea level the past 7 years. To say I'm excited is an understatement 😁

Welcome to the Snoqualmie Valley!  

We will stay as snow out here even if the warm air makes it into Seattle.   The east wind is going to be relentless.

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