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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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I just experienced the craziest day of my life. Normal, routine doctor's visit quickly spiraled into a seven hour stay in the ER for a MRI scan to check for malignant tumors or multiple sclerosis. Tha

Downvote this post if you want snow.

Good morning,  As you know, back in late December I decided to end my jovial "ranting" here among you soulless bastard's to focus on more personal matters.  Well despite my better judgement

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1 minute ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Low is way south. Comes in around Oregon Cali border. Good trend. 

Not sure it is a good trend, it’s not really colder initially either.

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Well at least GFS temp output will be more realistic. 24 hour snow with first system.

 

B562F6BB-B6C6-4907-BDA3-9A5987F0867D.png

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 9.8"                        2020-21: 40.47"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Well at least GFS temp output will be more realistic. 24 hour snow with first system.

 

B562F6BB-B6C6-4907-BDA3-9A5987F0867D.png

Timmy Supercell gets hosed! 😢

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 9.8"                        2020-21: 40.47"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 minutes ago, Brennan said:

At least Ethereum is pumping. Might as well make money if we're not going to be trapped in 3 feet of snow. 

You'd like being trapped in the snow!!

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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12 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

I think it's early to make a huge call like that. I'd still be saying things like "we're continuing to watch snow chances as it unfolds" on AFDs if I were them. Of course while not alarming the public.

That's why I like Medford NWS discussions like this one for Saturday event.

image.png.0b54f211712efd5b9e512315121ba6a6.png

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A little bit warmer (especially compared to earlier) and a whole lot drier! My favorite type of run!

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 6.9"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 

2020-21: 10.5" (2/10: Tr, 2/12: 0.5" , 2/13: 8.5", 2/14: 1.5")

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This run was pretty boring. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 9.8"                        2020-21: 40.47"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Some quick overrunning next Monday. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 9.8"                        2020-21: 40.47"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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At least we aren’t seeing massive undercutting with 50 degree rain this weekend for areas south of Olympia.

Thats what I was half expecting to see this morning judging by the trends yesterday. Looks like cold air and suppressed jet is still very much in play on this run. I’d take that any day over lows gradually trending up to Juneau.

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39 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Currently very light snow and 32. Just enough to cover the roof. 

DP 32. 

A74BA85F-66CA-407B-ABD3-4B592A7E4D1D.jpeg

Looks similar here, just a trade of dry snow covering the roofs and some other surfaces. Currently 34F with a 27F dewpoint and surprisingly still completely windless.

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1 minute ago, Timmy said:

I truly feel bad for any professional trying to make a local forecast this week.

They're going to get lambasted by anyone that thinks looking at their phone app twice a week counts as looking at the forecast. 

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3 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

Looks similar here, just a trade of dry snow covering the roofs and some other surfaces. Currently 34F with a 27F dewpoint and surprisingly still completely windless.

What are you thinking for this week coming up here in Victoria? 

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EF724141-6896-4203-A6A8-0CB81FDF6AC2.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 9.8"                        2020-21: 40.47"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:
12z GEFS well a touch colder The Dalles -19.0c mean temp

Great to see things stay cold/trend colder. This is the stage where I am fine with moderation/pacific moisture staying away in the mid range. It’s not like it would take all that much of a tweak for some to get up here.

 

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2 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

They're going to get lambasted by anyone that thinks looking at their phone app twice a week counts as looking at the forecast. 

Honestly I think that most of the apps have been doing okay. Everything I've seen here over the past couple days has suggested cold with a chance of snow at points throughout the week. Probably the best forecast that can be made so far and the closest to reality unless some major snowstorms/rainstorms show up on future runs.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 6.9"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 

2020-21: 10.5" (2/10: Tr, 2/12: 0.5" , 2/13: 8.5", 2/14: 1.5")

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Wishcasters will note the GEM turns snowy with the snow line slowly working south down the valley.

54C8A9A8-98CD-4321-8201-3E4D3714F205.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 9.8"                        2020-21: 40.47"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Honestly I think that most of the apps have been doing okay. Everything I've seen here over the past couple days has suggested cold with a chance of snow at points throughout the week. Probably the best forecast that can be made so far and the closest to reality unless some major snowstorms/rainstorms show up on future runs.

They've done okay, sure, but at one point yesterday I had a snow icon for, like, Tuesday through Saturday. It's not so much that the apps are bad, but rather that people don't know how to interpret them with any nuance. 

So if someone saw that same thing yesterday, they might assume it's gonna be snowing all week long. 

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2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

12z GEM Day 4.5 850s turning colder likely enough for immediate PDX metro to remain below freezing.

gem_T850_nwus_19.png

Devastating trends!!

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I still have some hope at the end of February. Looking back at pictures it seems most of the significant events for Medford is at the end of February.

 

 

F56FE374-5D73-4B17-91BC-EF15769A94B3.jpeg

C0DC4B1A-720D-46DF-ABD1-6088D1C31C32.jpeg

595B4B7A-E4F2-4273-ABD1-AE6DD98F9078.jpeg

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Models almost always underestimate low level cold air through the Gorge and if we do end up with 850s -16c to -20c for the Gorge(Which I'm doubting right now), the low level air would be bitter.
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Lol

58474C75-45B4-4F28-842B-5202B6AF56B3.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 9.8"                        2020-21: 40.47"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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In slightly related news, over the last week 15 people have died in avalanches across the country which is the most in a week since the Stevens Pass avalanche in 1910.

https://unofficialnetworks.com/2021/02/08/most-avalanche-deaths-since-1910/

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 6.9"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 

2020-21: 10.5" (2/10: Tr, 2/12: 0.5" , 2/13: 8.5", 2/14: 1.5")

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