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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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The block might be re-forming at the end of the ECMWF run... but it seems like we have to get rid of the first block before the details of that even begin to settle out.    So messy! 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Yeah getting excited about anything past 120hrs is just Dumb.

I think people are just getting excited about the possibilities and not the specific details... and there is definitely a chance with the pattern being so volatile.

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Too funny... the 12Z ECMWF just morphs into a great looking pattern right at the end of the run after being a total mess for the days leading up to that time.

ecmwf_z500a_namer_11 (5).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Either +8c or -11c by days 5/6. 

Pretty much the same thing as throwing a dart at a board while being blindfolded. Who knows where it will end up...

ens_image.php?geoid=136221&var=201&run=12&date=2021-02-02&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

I didn't see that you already posted this.  I deleted my version.

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Seasonably cool for sure

1613044800-8A5yMTmEoa4.png

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Just now, Deweydog said:

Euro is reminiscent of 2-2014.

Seahawks!   

It was sunny and cold in Seatte for the parade.    I heard something different was happening in Eugene! 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Well how about that!  Major improvement on the ECMWF.  The big change is it keeps the PV in Canada this weekend instead of driving into the Upper Midwest.  Fantastic changes!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Euro is reminiscent of 2-2014.

That one snuck up on us bigly. Ended up with almost a foot of snow at the Pelican Pub in Pacific City on the coast!!!

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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The ECMWF spits out  37 / 25 for SEA on day 9 with a low of 22 on day 10.  It even has a chilly 43 / 31 for next Monday.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, bainbridgekid said:

At hour 150, 850mb temps are 11 degrees colder on the Euro than the GFS.

-7 on the Euro and +4 on the GFS.

Models have been sh*t this winter but this seems even more chaotic than usual. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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This has to be one of the all time great examples of model chaos I have ever seen.  That includes the old MRF days.  The coming pattern is ridiculously complex.  It's pretty obvious there could still be more improvement coming even as soon as day 5 on future runs.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

It’s 7+ days out and threads a needle while riding a unicycle while legally intoxicated.  

Lol like double the limit. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

This has to be one of the all time great examples of model chaos I have ever seen.  That includes the old MRF days.  The coming pattern is ridiculously complex.  It's pretty obvious there could still be more improvement coming even as soon as day 5 on future runs.

Keep hope alive.

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3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

It’s 7+ days out and threads a needle while riding a unicycle while legally intoxicated.  

The run brushes us with cold before that though.  Something not there on previous runs.  I think if the PV stays in Canada like this run shows it will bode better for us than if it plunges into the Midwest.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The interesting thing is the GFS and ECMWF turn cold here close to the same tine even though they take different paths getting there.  Both runs get pretty cold.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The run brushes us with cold before that though.  Something not there on previous runs.  I think if the PV stays in Canada like this run shows it will bode better for us than if it plunges into the Midwest.

Eh, there's no driver for that first blocking episode. That’s been a very consistent feature since the runs late last week which entertained the idea of full latitude blocking.  Also, models have loved the idea of these quasi-retrograding lobes all winter at varying latitudes.  The models have struggled with them massively.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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