February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Juneau landfall! 

We've already made a 24 hour two state jump!

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

That dude is lip syncing 100% on Super Bowl and wow that music is HORRIBLE. Who listens to this lmao.... Lip syncing doesn't help the EURO run at all.

A lot of ppl listen to The Weeknd!!!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Aside from the higher heights over NE Canada, this is looking a little like Jan 2020 in terms of the 500mb pattern with a very cold pool of Arctic air to draw from but very negative tilt on the ridge:

 

 

 

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

That dude is lip syncing 100% on Super Bowl and wow that music is HORRIBLE. Who listens to this lmao.... Lip syncing doesn't help the EURO run at all.

Lip synching at the halftime show!!?  

Could be the next major scandal!

[TheNewCulverJosh]

Ok...if the EURO is correct, then this dude at halftime is really singing......shows you I believe the other models :).

[snow_wizard]

C-Zone headed south now.  Seems like ice pellets or graupel could happen with this.

[SouthHillFrosty]

5 minutes ago, iFred said:

Someone is trying to DDoS the forum right now. Things might be weird while I work on this.

D**n. I learned how to do a DDoS attack last year. Was a lot of fun to learn!

[SalemDuck]

18z NAVGEM looked good, take that weenies!

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

We've already made a 24 hour two state jump!

You're not wrong. With the pv lobe becoming a whimper now elongating to the north the warm air is moving further and further north. We need a miracle on 00z runs tonight. OR IF by some rare chance the GFS/GEFS is leadng the way, then we're good to go we'd see the EURO move big time towards the GFS. I doubt it.

[Blizzard777]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

C-Zone headed south now.  Seems like ice pellets or graupel could happen with this.

Future cast radar has it drying up on my doorstep  

[snow_wizard]

The truth of the matter right now is we just don't know how this thing is going to play out.  You can see on the EPS how incredibly close of a call it is whether the PV lobe wants to keep digging south or whether it breaks out over the ocean.  there's a point there that is very uncertain.

[Phil]

22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z EPS control run is downright ugly for Saturday morning...

 

Good grief. Looks nothing like any of the other guidance.

[BLI snowman]

Just now, SalemDuck said:

18z NAVGEM looked good, take that weenies!

 

Unfortunately that's a massive shift towards the Euro. 12z at the same time. Not going to be able to sustain four more days of the same trend.

[GHweatherChris]

Hmm, went out to get something from my truck and, there is some wet snow splatting on it amidst the rain.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

It is always a bad idea to bet against Team 50˚F Rain.

[GHweatherChris]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The truth of the mater right now is we just don't know how this thing is going to play out.  You can see on the EPS how incredibly close of a call it is whether the PV lobe wants to keep digging south or whether it breaks out over the ocean.  there's a point there that is very uncertain.

I like maters.

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

You're not wrong. With the pv lobe becoming a whimper now elongating to the north the warm air is moving further and further north. We need a miracle on 00z runs tonight. OR IF by some rare chance the GFS/GEFS is leadng the way, then we're good to go we'd see the EURO move big time towards the GFS. I doubt it.

Don't forgot the UKMET!

We'll see. Maybe the Euro is just struggling with the PV right now. And If I remember, it was a bad run 00z Friday right? Everyone was down until it bounced back Saturday morning. Lets see what happens. 

[Perturbed Member]

4 minutes ago, SalemDuck said:

18z NAVGEM looked good, take that weenies!

12z vs 18z NAVGEM. As Andrew would say, devastating trends.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It is always a bad idea to bet against Team 50˚F Rain.

It's probably going to be fine.  Nothing is anywhere near decided.

[Omegaraptor]

If the low landfalls somewhere between Lincoln City and Cape Blanco we’re golden in PDX metro. EPS still looks decent in that respect.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Good grief. Looks nothing like any of the other guidance.

I think the ECMWF models wanting to dig that thing westward so easily looks pretty suspect.  I clearly remember a few days ago it was just the opposite.  The ECMWF wanted to progress the base of the block inland which ruined the pattern also.  The ECMWF has not been great lately.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's probably going to be fine.  Nothing is anywhere near decided.

Nope, winter cancelled for anyone south of Skagit County.

[snow_wizard]

Still lots of snow and freezing high temps for SEA on the 18z EPS according to the meteograms.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I think the ECMWF models wanting to dig that thing westward so easily looks pretty suspect.  I clearly remember a few days ago it was just the opposite.  The ECMWF wanted to progress the base of the block inland which ruined the pattern also.  The ECMWF has not been great lately.

That’s a pretty climatologically favored outcome though. Without a vigorous NE driver, ie a significant Pacific block,  PV either slips east or has a tendency to either hang up or become cyclogenic. Tons of examples of that progression, while there are very few of these uber-suppressed, stable setups.  The bullseye will quite likely be SW BC.

[wxmet]

There are quite a few weather stations on the northern Canadian Northwest Territories coast. I wonder if better sampling has led to this shift in the models.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think the ECMWF models wanting to dig that thing westward so easily looks pretty suspect.  I clearly remember a few days ago it was just the opposite.  The ECMWF wanted to progress the base of the block inland which ruined the pattern also.  The ECMWF has not been great lately.

I think the GOA ridge weakness it the biggest problem and none of the models are showing a particularly strong ridge to the west. This looks like a PV driven trough and those are notoriously unstable.

[snow_wizard]

I would sure like to know why everyone thinks the ECMWF is right when it's the only model handling the PV lobe in that way.  It was wrong just a few days ago in the way it handled the base of the block while the GFS held firm and the ECMWF caved to the GFS.

[umadbro]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I would sure like to know why everyone thinks the ECMWF is right when it's the only model handling the PV lobe in that way.  It was wrong just a few days ago in the way it handled the base of the block while the GFS held firm and the ECMWF caved to the GFS.

Because when the Euro does this, it's just about always right. I've been watching this happen several times in the past few years. You really need to quit getting so worked up over people's opinions 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

I think the GOA ridge weakness it the biggest problem and none of the models are showing a particularly strong ridge to the west. This looks like a PV driven trough and those are notoriously unstable.

We'll just have to wait and see.  At any rate things still look fine for many of us on here.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, umadbro said:

Because when the Euro does this, it's just about always right. I've been watching this happen several times in the past few years. You really need to quit getting so worked up over people's opinions 

It was wrong just recently as I pointed out and it caved to the GFS on a very important issue.

[Kolk1604]

Looks like the 18z moved the low back south. I know the EPS has a cluster of them to the south. I wonder where the 00z ends up. If it stays cold...

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

If you really want to see something funny pick the 4 or 5 day period on the ecmwf and scroll back 4 runs.  After that ask yourself if 1 run is a trend.

[Omegaraptor]

8 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Nope, winter cancelled for anyone south of Skagit County.

Mossman only 2 miles within the screw zone. Nice

[TheNewCulverJosh]

Lots of energy across the sound in the PSCZ.........anyone have a temp map from the lowlands out to the foothills?

[Omegaraptor]

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

74% of 18z EPS members show 2+ inches in Seattle by Saturday morning. 44% show 6+ inches. Honestly at this point I'll take those odds. 

Here's KPAE and KBLI too. 

PDX please?

[MV_snow]

So why do the WA posters hate the 18z euro? I understand why OR posters do, but it still gives Seattle at least a half foot.

[Omegaraptor]

2 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

So why do the WA posters hate the 18z euro? I understand why OR posters do, but it still gives Seattle at least a half foot.

Any further north trend and the south Sound starts getting screwed as well.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

Mossman only 2 miles within the screw zone. Nice

Seriously, though, I hope this turns out good for everyone. But it’s just weather, and I am not going to let it ruin my life it it busts… and it could quite easily bust for me, too.

[Winterdog]

5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

74% of 18z EPS members show 2+ inches in Seattle by Saturday morning. 44% show 6+ inches. Honestly at this point I'll take those odds. 

Here's KPAE and KBLI too. 

I’d be more than satisfied with that outcome but it would sure be easier to buy into if the trend wasn’t moving in the wrong direction.

[wxmet]

The ECMWF is the overall better performing model than the GFS independent of the few situations where the GFS might have performed better.

 

1 minute ago, MV_snow said:

So why do the WA posters hate the 18z euro? I understand why OR posters do, but it still gives Seattle at least a half foot.

 

We don't hate it but it is very close. Any further north and we'll easily be in the warm/rain sector of a Pacific storm.