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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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Gonna be a blend of the gfs and euro. Just my guess probably lean slightly more towards the euro solution. Like some have already mentioned gfs usually overdoes cold.

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Warm season rainfall-5.26”

+80s-27

+85s-9

+90s-3

+100s-2

Highest temp-106

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2 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said:

 

Check out that sleet

image.png

Image result for leon lett slide

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Yea.... this is going to clobber everybody

wow.png

It actually completely evaporates before reaching the Coast. GFS is pretty confused and fairly on its own right now with how dry it is.

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Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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As of now we have no idea about snow for pretty much anyone.  It does appears either really cold and dry or cold with snow are the two most likely options by far now.  Maybe we can still pull off really cold with snow.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

It actually completely evaporates before reaching the Coast. GFS is pretty confused and fairly on its own right now with how dry it is.

Highly doubt we end up with this much suppression.

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Warm season rainfall-5.26”

+80s-27

+85s-9

+90s-3

+100s-2

Highest temp-106

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

As of now we have no idea about snow for pretty much anyone.  It does appears either really cold and dry or cold with snow are the two most likely options by far now.  Maybe we can still pull off really cold with snow.

I want both at the same time...Like December 2008 style! 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

As of now we have no idea about snow for pretty much anyone.  It does appears either really cold and dry or cold with snow are the two most likely options by far now.  Maybe we can still pull off really cold with snow.

The models have been erratic enough that surprises of all sorts cannot be ruled out.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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15 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Just remember, Jan 10, 2017 was forecast to be tr-4".

And to use an equally poor analog, they probably didn't know the Columbus Day storm was coming even 96 hours out! Food for thought!!

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GFS is pretty much on its own, probably too enthusiastic with the cold air.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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8 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

How?

sfct.us_state_or.png

Bend will probably have 2 feet on the ground. Been happening once every year lately.

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (7)
05/14, 06/22, 06/24, 07/27, 07/29
07/31, 08/01, 
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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Wow, what an incredible run. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, Requiem said:

GFS is pretty much on its own, probably too enthusiastic with the cold air.

Do you read the comments here, take the words, put them in a bag and shake them up to make your posts lately? ;)

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Ensemble average below -13 on this run.  Brrrr.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Just now, Jesse said:

That would be an historic regional arctic outbreak for this late in the season.

 

There are people on this forum who would take 1" of slush that melts in 30 minutes over a historic arctic outbreak. No joke. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, Jesse said:

Do you read the comments here, take the words, put them in a bag and shake them up to make your posts lately? ;)

I have been mentoring the young Requiem. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

There are people on this forum who would take 1" of slush that melts in 30 minutes over a historic arctic outbreak. No joke. 

Here here! Your best post today so far Andrew. :wub:

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

There are people on this forum who would take 1" of slush that melts in 30 minutes over a historic arctic outbreak. No joke. 

I'd be happy with a few inches and blowing snow. Very rare here.

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Looks like the operational bottoms out at -15 and the control is about the same.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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The good thing is if we don't like a run we just have to wait 6 hours and it will be completely different!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

My god goofus.... get your act together. This model is so freaking lost right now 😂 

It’s been way more consistent than the Euro the last few days. 

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

There are people on this forum who would take 1" of slush that melts in 30 minutes over a historic arctic outbreak. No joke. 

I don’t think it’s that necessarily that people are commenting on with the gfs...just that it seems really unrealistic we end up that cold and dry. I’d take a historic blast like that as well as it would probably eventually lead to some snow at some point. I think the models leaning towards the euro are more realistic though. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Warm season rainfall-5.26”

+80s-27

+85s-9

+90s-3

+100s-2

Highest temp-106

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4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

My god goofus.... get your act together. This model is so freaking lost right now 😂 

It has had some victories over the ECMWF recently.  I honestly call it a toss up.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I don’t think it’s that necessarily that people are commenting on with the gfs...just that it seems really unrealistic we end up that cold and dry. I’d take a historic blast like that as well as it would probably eventually lead to some snow at some point. I think the models leaning towards the euro are more realistic though. 

Didn’t the Euro just move toward the GFS earlier though? It starts to get confusing going down that rabbit hole.

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