February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SalemDuck said:

The 12z EPS does shift the cold air west in the midrange. 

 

Big change from previous runs.  Really good news.

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, SalemDuck said:

The 12z EPS does shift the cold air west in the midrange. 

 

Woah that's pretty good!

[jakerepp]

Man alive, I just have to believe that we're going to get hit by something. All of a sudden, 4 days out, all the models are going to agree on some serious cold or a blowtorch or something. 

This volatility is just insane. 

[TheNewCulverJosh]

1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Woah that's pretty good!

Has to be transitory.

[SalemDuck]

The EPS doesn't agree with the Op's idea of having the Alaskan vortex drift off to the west.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS at 180 hours...

 

No doubt it's trending toward spreading the cold out across the north instead of taking all of it east.  We still have a shot at something good.

[Slushy Inch]

7 minutes ago, SalemDuck said:

The 12z EPS does shift the cold air west in the midrange. 

 

Do you have the surface temperature anomalies? That looks even better than the OP!

[bainbridgekid]

7 minutes ago, SalemDuck said:

The 12z EPS does shift the cold air west in the midrange. 

 

FYI for anyone not aware, those colors show the change in heights from the last run, not the anomaly from normal like you'd usually see on a map like that.

[jakerepp]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

FYI for anyone not aware, those colors show the change in heights from the last run, not the anomaly from normal like you'd usually see on a map like that.

Thanks. Never noticed this said 'run to run delta'. 

[snow_wizard]

Amazing how the evolution on the 12z ECMWF suite of models bears no resemblance to the 0z.  This is crazy.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

FYI for anyone not aware, those colors show the change in heights from the last run, not the anomaly from normal like you'd usually see on a map like that.

I thought it looked weird.  Nice trend though.  Another step like that and we're cold here.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS at day 10... not too inspiring.

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

The models trying to come to an agreement 

[MossMan]

2/14 was a waste up here other than some ice on Lake Goodwin and some slush later on that lasted a few hours. No thanks. 

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS at day 10... not too inspiring.

 

vs. 24 hours ago...

 

[ShawniganLake]

Anyone else been noticing this model volatility?

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

vs. 24 hours ago...

 

Yeah... really bad trend on the EPS.

[SalemDuck]

I guess it's important to explicitly say what the map shows. But this Gif shows the run to run change from day 3-8. You can clearly see a western shift during the mid range.

[Slushy Inch]

6 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

FYI for anyone not aware, those colors show the change in heights from the last run, not the anomaly from normal like you'd usually see on a map like that.

Ok thanks.

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

vs. 24 hours ago...

 

The east cold deserves the cold. They haven't had snow in five hours. We gotta wait our turn.

[wxmet]

Let’s hope the 18z GFS can hold. Take it one model run at a time.

 

[MossMan]

Matt is also not onboard. 

[jakerepp]

3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Anyone else been noticing this model volatility?

Not familiar with that word. Vitality? Validity? 

What are you getting at?

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

vs. 24 hours ago...

 

I'm sure it's just spread and noise.  We all know things will look totally different in 24 hours....or less.

[wxmet]

2 minutes ago, SalemDuck said:

I guess it's important to explicitly say what the map shows. But this Gif shows the run to run change from day 3-8. You can clearly see a western shift during the mid range.

Important to monitor to anticipate any future changes in the EPS.

[Cloud]

Bet the Mets are happy they don’t have to forecast beyond 5 days. Hair pull inducing pattern. 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Matt is also not onboard. 

This is kind of fun.  Such potential and we have no idea what will really happen even a week out.

[RentonHill]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

This is kind of fun.  Such potential and we have no idea what will really happen even a week out.

[snow_wizard]

Meanwhile...it's actually kind of chilly today. This will be day number 19 in a row with sub 50 degree highs here now.  We dodged the bullet the last few days thanks to no wind to mix out the cooler air.

[SouthHillFrosty]

This model craziness is almost as crazy as my gf

[GHweatherChris]

omg

[North_County]

(Very) light reading on February 1916 in Seattle.

https://www.historylink.org/File/2872

"Snow began falling on the morning of January 31, and continued unabated until more than three feet had accumulated on level land. Schools closed, streetcars halted in their tracks, and the Humane Society spread the alarm to protect domestic animals and wildlife. At 3:13 p.m. on February 2, 1916, after two days of heavy snow, the ornate dome of St. James Cathedral, at 9th Avenue and Marion Street on First Hill, crashed 120 feet into the nave below. Miraculously, no one was injured by falling debris and 15 tons of wet snow."

[Deweydog]

“Wet” snow.  Next...

[MossMan]

10 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

“Wet” snow.  Next...

I agree! Dry snow is much nicer! 

[ShawniganLake]

Lower Yates Street. Victoria 1916

 

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Interestingly, as I have abandoned the negativity, Tim has picked up the mantle. Thank you, someone has to do it. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Interestingly, as I have abandoned the negativity, Tim has picked up the mantle. Thank you, someone has to do it. 

Wait 5 minutes!

The pattern seems too messy to me... it could work out but I am not feeling it yet.  

[snow maniac]

Just drove through snow In Matlock, Mason county, snowing down to 400 feet outskirts of Shelton towards the Olympics.

[MossMan]

So we are going to have a February 1916 redux...Yay!! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Wait 5 minutes!

The pattern seems too messy to me... it could work out but I am not feeling it yet.  

Just expect incoming fire from Jesse at any time.