February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[Slushy Inch]

9 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Enjoy the view before the king dashes our hopes and dreams???

Euro more likely has that for Seattle, seeming like its going to be one or the other.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Eugene south get hammered with the 2nd system on the GEM. 

[GHweatherChris]

My backyard is not in Oregon, they deserve nothing.

[Skagit Weather]

Randy gets 8"+ of snow on the GEM by Thursday. It even bleeds a bit into western Skagit.

[snow_wizard]

Holy crappola!  The GEFS bottoms out at -13 on this run!  Wow!

[Jesse]

My dad just texted me that it’s snowing in Port Townsend.

[snow_wizard]

Freeking epic cold ensemble.  The ECMWF has to blink.  It has to!

[bainbridgekid]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Snowing hard here now. 

Radar looks good for you tonight. 3-5" seems very reasonable though CZ's are always finicky.

Temp and is it sticking much yet?

[Jesse]

00z GFS definitely went a lot better than I would have expected. Let’s hope the Euro steps back from the edge.

[snow_wizard]

The GEM says we better do well with the Arctic front for snow up here.  Dry and cold after that for us.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This run is nuts. 

[Timmy]

Just now, Jesse said:

00z GFS definitely went a lot better than I would have expected. Let’s hope the Euro steps back from the edge.

Channels it’s inner third eye blind?

[Blizzard777]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Snowing hard here now. 

Starting my own CZ 

[Deweydog]

Interesting to see the GFS/GEM come in with nearly identical runs, although it may just be two ships passing in the night. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Great to see some folks already getting snow tonight. 

35 and cloudy right now. Been a chilly damp weekend here. 

[Phil]

Tim disappeared again.

[snow_wizard]

The C-Zone is almost here.  It's going to be close.

[Phil]

CMC came back down to Earth as expected. Closer to GFS solution now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Phil said:

Tim disappeared again.

He's getting snow. Probably knocked out his dish. 

BTW wtf is up with this run... 

[snow_wizard]

15 ensemble members go below -15.  Just insane.

[Cloud]

Here comes the downvote brigade. Lol. 

[JW8]

OP is definitely on the cold end of the ensembles. 

[Kolk1604]

Week from Wednesday. More snow with temps in the 30s. Looks like with Arctic air entrenched, dew points remain low?

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

He's getting snow. Probably knocked out his dish. 

BTW wtf is up with this run... 

I was noticing that the GEFS for the 18z showed the potential for a lasting cold pattern. 00z looks to continue this.

[snow_wizard]

The things that's becoming apparent is if the ECMWF is wrong this is going to be a long cold spell.  The GEM and GFS just keep going.

Right now the only thing keeping us from really celebrating is the D**n Euro.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[Perturbed Member]

13 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

I love how the Seattle folk are just chilling, the northern runs shows more snow for Western Washington, the Oregon crew goes nuts. The Southern runs shows more snow for Oregon, less for Western Washington, the Oregon crew goes nuts.

The Seattle area folks are very calm, it's sort of funny. Been on these boards for years now and I didn't realize there was such a big freak-out (both excited and doomsday) differential between the states.

Easier to be calm when you aren't on the very margin of being hosed. Western WA has a safer margin here. As others have mentioned, northern OR especially has been screwed for several winters in a row now so we are hungrier for it.

I don't think there is an appreciable difference in the psychology of weanies in OR vs WA. You should have seen the WA posters back in Jan 2017 and Feb 2014. I don't blame anyone for it though. I get it, we all want snow and cold.

[Cloud]

18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Snowing hard here now. 

WRF may end up being right. Euro really did showed nothing. 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, JW8 said:

OP is definitely on the cold end of the ensembles. 

The mean is -13 though.  Amazing.

[Kolk1604]

4 AM week from Thursday. Reinforcing shot of Arctic air?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A well deserved break in the action by the 20th. 

[Deweydog]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

A well deserved break in the action by the 20th. 

I have a dentist appointment that day.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Here's a fun tidbit. From Thursday, Feb 11th 4 AM to Tuesday, Feb 16th 1 PM, Portland remains below 32 F. Here is a GIF

[MWG]

Already 30 degrees! Looks like another morning of freezing fog. 

[bainbridgekid]

5 minutes ago, JW8 said:

OP is definitely on the cold end of the ensembles. 

That'll happen when it gets down to -18. 

Actually really impressive it's not more of an outlier.

[Requiem]

Let’s hope EURO is better!

[Cloud]

Satisfying run in the mid-range. Now to take a breather and hold our breaths for King Euro. 

Oh boy. 

[snow_wizard]

Still cold at hour 300 on the GFS.  Totally insane.

[mtep]

Noob question: is the reason that the Bham area is getting shafted on the maps snow-wise because the outflow winds are modeled to be too strong for much precip to make it up here?

[bainbridgekid]

4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

00z WRF shows Tim's area doing well and surprisingly shows an inch falling here in the morning. Not holding my breath on that though. 

Really hoping that we can get something on Wednesday, in case the dry/cold solutions win out for the end of the week.

Kind of a bummer to see it completely abandon the King/Snohomish County line CZ it had been showing the last three runs.