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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


BLI snowman

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1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I get what you are saying. It would be nice to have a Bellingham to Medford snowstorm. It just isn’t possible which sucks. Snowstorms out here aren’t equal😔

In Jan 2004 chains were required on I-5 in Oregon from the California border to the Washington border. Regional storms do happen, but they are obviously very rare. I have no idea how Washington fared that month.

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2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I get what you are saying. It would be nice to have a Bellingham to Medford snowstorm. It just isn’t possible which sucks. Snowstorms out here aren’t equal😔

I think we had a huge regional snowstorm in December 1892, but the problem is as something like that moves north it turns to rain very quickly in places that just got hit.  As I mentioned earlier the best we can do is have a cold wave with multiple events that hit different places so we collectively all get in on the fun.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, wxmet said:

I can only compare to the previous 00z run at the moment but the ECMWF is hanging back the trough a bit more in this run than the previous 00z run.

It looks less aggressive with driving the Arctic air south when compared to the GFS. Probably more realistic, Arctic air frequently gets hung up in terrain and there isn't a particularly strong force driving it south early this week.

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2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 2

500h_anom.na.png

ECMWF, GEM, GFS

models-2021020800-f048.500h_anom.na.gif

It looks absolutely perfect at that point.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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That shortwave/ULL over the Pacific is much weaker this run. Slower again with arctic front, but I think there’ll be less Pacific advection by D5-6.

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I think we had a huge regional snowstorm in December 1892, but the problem is as something like that moves north it turns to rain very quickly in places that just got hit.  As I mentioned earlier the best we can do is have a cold wave with multiple events that hit different places so we collectively all get in on the fun.

December 1972 was a true regional event. A juicy storm dropped down the coast with arctic air in place on the 11th and 12th and everyone saw 2-8" of snow from Vancouver, BC to Redding.

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Just now, Phil said:

That shortwave/ULL over the Pacific is much weaker this run. Slower again with arctic front, but I think there’ll be less Pacific advection by D5-6.

I was going to mention that... vastly different than the 12Z run with that feature by Wednesday morning.   A trend the 18Z ECMWF started.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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At day 3 it appears there is wider blocking off the coast to keep the PV lobe from punching out over the ocean so much.  Fingers crossed!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

I wonder what type of pattern it would take to send in mild rain up here and spill dry Arctic air into Oregon. The best regional patterns are those where the ridge starts with a negative tilt allowing a low to jump over it then leans into the coast as the low makes it south from Prince Rupert to Portland. When you have that ridge alignment the low will take more of a North-South track, though eventually it usually shifts to the SE somewhere in OR.

For “here” being Victoria, I’m sure there have been arctic blasts that are mostly backdoor/Columbia Gorge to the point where the cold just trickles out of the Fraser Canyon and really never makes it across the Strait to the Island. Whatcom County and the Fraser Valley would still get snow, as would Portland, but Victoria could miss out.

I don’t think I can remember an outflow event that delivered for Portland and not for Whatcom.

Portland tends to snowfail by being too far south and too warm, Whatcom County tends to by being too far north and too dry. Different climates, different snowfail modes.

If I really wanted reliable cold and snow I’d move east of the mountains. BLI still averages more snow than SEA or PDX so overall I can’t complain.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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It's TIME.

No description available.

  • lol 1
  • scream 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Ouch

Phil is NOT on board. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

For “here” being Victoria, I’m sure there have been arctic blasts that are mostly backdoor/Columbia Gorge to the point where the cold just trickles out of the Fraser Canyon and really never makes it across the Strait to the Island. Whatcom County and the Fraser Valley would still get snow, as would Portland, but Victoria could miss out.

I don’t think I can remember an outflow event that delivered for Portland and not for Whatcom.

Portland tends to snowfail by being too far south and too warm, Whatcom County tends to by being too far north and too dry. Different climates, different snowfail modes.

If I really wanted reliable cold and snow I’d move east of the mountains. BLI still averages more snow than SEA or PDX so overall I can’t complain.

I was thinking it might take a very top heavy ridge leaning into the coast that starts to retrograde keeping us in the warm sector while Arctic air fills in to the south. It would be mostly dry everywhere but might be drizzly for us in the warm sector and cold/dry down south.

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Nice climate we live in 

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Haha wow. Shows just how out to lunch the GFS is. 

  • Weenie 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

High of 42 on Wednesday for Seattle, while GFS shows a high of 34 that day.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-3001600.png

Ouch. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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