RentonHill Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, Deweydog said: How are the weeklies looking? Begone puppy 1 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Day 2 ECMWF, GEM, GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said: I get what you are saying. It would be nice to have a Bellingham to Medford snowstorm. It just isn’t possible which sucks. Snowstorms out here aren’t equal In Jan 2004 chains were required on I-5 in Oregon from the California border to the Washington border. Regional storms do happen, but they are obviously very rare. I have no idea how Washington fared that month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 I can only compare to the previous 00z run at the moment but the ECMWF is hanging back the trough a bit more in this run than the previous 00z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: I get what you are saying. It would be nice to have a Bellingham to Medford snowstorm. It just isn’t possible which sucks. Snowstorms out here aren’t equal I think we had a huge regional snowstorm in December 1892, but the problem is as something like that moves north it turns to rain very quickly in places that just got hit. As I mentioned earlier the best we can do is have a cold wave with multiple events that hit different places so we collectively all get in on the fun. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, wxmet said: I can only compare to the previous 00z run at the moment but the ECMWF is hanging back the trough a bit more in this run than the previous 00z run. It looks less aggressive with driving the Arctic air south when compared to the GFS. Probably more realistic, Arctic air frequently gets hung up in terrain and there isn't a particularly strong force driving it south early this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 2 ECMWF, GEM, GFS It looks absolutely perfect at that point. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 That shortwave/ULL over the Pacific is much weaker this run. Slower again with arctic front, but I think there’ll be less Pacific advection by D5-6. 1 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 The western extent of the TPV is weaker and the heights are lower in the Pacific in association with the block. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 8, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: I think we had a huge regional snowstorm in December 1892, but the problem is as something like that moves north it turns to rain very quickly in places that just got hit. As I mentioned earlier the best we can do is have a cold wave with multiple events that hit different places so we collectively all get in on the fun. December 1972 was a true regional event. A juicy storm dropped down the coast with arctic air in place on the 11th and 12th and everyone saw 2-8" of snow from Vancouver, BC to Redding. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 I can feel the forum collectively holding its breath. 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 It looks a lot like the 18z euro with that ULL so we'll see if Jim's suspicion about a secondary attempt working out plays out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, Phil said: That shortwave/ULL over the Pacific is much weaker this run. Slower again with arctic front, but I think there’ll be less Pacific advection by D5-6. I was going to mention that... vastly different than the 12Z run with that feature by Wednesday morning. A trend the 18Z ECMWF started. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Day 3 Trough more compact. I like this ECMWF, GEM, GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 At day 3 it appears there is wider blocking off the coast to keep the PV lobe from punching out over the ocean so much. Fingers crossed! Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, Jesse said: I can feel the forum collectively holding its breath. Feels like the start of SuperBowl 48. I relaxed a little after the safety lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Ouch 1 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 5 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said: I wonder what type of pattern it would take to send in mild rain up here and spill dry Arctic air into Oregon. The best regional patterns are those where the ridge starts with a negative tilt allowing a low to jump over it then leans into the coast as the low makes it south from Prince Rupert to Portland. When you have that ridge alignment the low will take more of a North-South track, though eventually it usually shifts to the SE somewhere in OR. For “here” being Victoria, I’m sure there have been arctic blasts that are mostly backdoor/Columbia Gorge to the point where the cold just trickles out of the Fraser Canyon and really never makes it across the Strait to the Island. Whatcom County and the Fraser Valley would still get snow, as would Portland, but Victoria could miss out. I don’t think I can remember an outflow event that delivered for Portland and not for Whatcom. Portland tends to snowfail by being too far south and too warm, Whatcom County tends to by being too far north and too dry. Different climates, different snowfail modes. If I really wanted reliable cold and snow I’d move east of the mountains. BLI still averages more snow than SEA or PDX so overall I can’t complain. It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Some snow for the North Sound on Wednesday AM. I’m in the blue 1 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 3 Trough more compact. I like this ECMWF, GEM, GFS Big difference on the cutoff between GFS and EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 It's TIME. 1 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Cold air is significantly further North this run than the 12z at hour 78. 2 1 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, Phil said: Ouch Phil is NOT on board. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, Phil said: Ouch Stub your toe? I hate when people leave their TPV out in the middle of the floor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: For “here” being Victoria, I’m sure there have been arctic blasts that are mostly backdoor/Columbia Gorge to the point where the cold just trickles out of the Fraser Canyon and really never makes it across the Strait to the Island. Whatcom County and the Fraser Valley would still get snow, as would Portland, but Victoria could miss out. I don’t think I can remember an outflow event that delivered for Portland and not for Whatcom. Portland tends to snowfail by being too far south and too warm, Whatcom County tends to by being too far north and too dry. Different climates, different snowfail modes. If I really wanted reliable cold and snow I’d move east of the mountains. BLI still averages more snow than SEA or PDX so overall I can’t complain. I was thinking it might take a very top heavy ridge leaning into the coast that starts to retrograde keeping us in the warm sector while Arctic air fills in to the south. It would be mostly dry everywhere but might be drizzly for us in the warm sector and cold/dry down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Yeah this is looking much worse than I was expecting. We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Nice climate we live in "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Day 4 Winter is over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Trough in the B.C. having trouble clearing customs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, hawkstwelve said: High of 42 on Wednesday for Seattle, while GFS shows a high of 34 that day. Chilly either way. 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Well that’s a wrap. Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Devastating . . . Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 D**n. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Haha wow. Shows just how out to lunch the GFS is. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 EURO in complete disagreement with the GFS, GEM, UKMET, ICON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 No dice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christensen87 Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: High of 42 on Wednesday for Seattle, while GFS shows a high of 34 that day. Ouch. Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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