February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 Yuck. EURO wants to end our Winter chances for the lowlands QUICKLY

[Jesse]

Just now, Omegaraptor said:

This is absolutely unbelievable model disagreement for 4 days out. When was the last time we’ve seen anything like this?

6-12 hours ago.

[MossMan]

Matt’s going to be right...Again...

[Meatyorologist]

These are some major discrepancies for just ~100 hours out. Cancelling or locking in solutions right now over a single deterministic run isn't the right way to go here.

[Bryant]

[TT-SEA]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

Day 5 Yuck. EURO wants to end our Winter chances for the lowlands QUICKLY

I don't even recognize that as being the same pattern that we have been analyzing for the last few days.   And that is at day 5.

[wxmet]

Need to see what the EPS says

[SeanNyberg]

Just now, fubario said:

so, every model and their mothers shows cold and possible snow, but the euro shows opposite and it's 100% correct. got it. i'm learning.

I'll listen to one consistently reliable and accurate model over a dozen of unreliable models.  

[snow_wizard]

Looks like we have a winner!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Chatting with IbrChris. He is VERY skeptical of the EURO, says it is warmer then every member of the GFS/CMC ensemble suite. 

[smerfylicious]

Why does Europe hate us so much? All we did was take the San Juan Islands from them and try to start a war over a pig. I don't see the problem.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, fubario said:

so, every model and their mothers shows cold and possible snow, but the euro shows opposite and it's 100% correct. got it. i'm learning.

It has the best accuracy track record, so my money is on that being the case. But it’s not inconceivable that the Euro is all wet.

[Cloud]

Zero consistency with this model too. So it's hard to come to definitive conclusion on what will happen. 

Guess we just let mother nature take over. 

[Perturbed Member]

Hopefully the euro comes around with bringing down the cold air faster. I'll at least take the low going back south though. With that track, the gorge will pretty much make sure PDX gets some kind of event out of that. 

For being the superior model, the ECMWF is spiting out all kinds of different solutions run to run....

[Jesse]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Accuracy?

It's been flailing a little too much to call it that.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

Based on?

Odds. It's all alone on this solution.  That's a huge change for the euro in that time frame. 

[OysterPrintout]

2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I think if we are talking about consistency the GFS actually beats the Euro pretty handily the last 24 hours.

Yep Euro has been all over the D**n place in the day 3-5 timeframe. That being said I'm sure none of us would be incredibly surprised to see the GFS fold like a cheap suit overnight.

[Kolk1604]

FWIW Here's 10 PM Friday. Warm air isn't surging from the south on this run 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Looks like we have a winner!

? lol

[snow drift]

5 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Take it easy. Drink plenty of fluids. Eat light and easy to digest foods. You'll recover.

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, SeanNyberg said:

I'll listen to one consistently reliable and accurate model over a dozen of unreliable models.  

There are no consistently reliable and accurate models.

[Gradient Keeper]

Even though PDX is barely cold enough, this is not a good sign at all. It's possible the EPS pulls down more arctic air than this. It's also very possible the next Op run handles that cut-off very differently and we see the EURO much colder like the GFS, GEM. IF the EURO is handling the pattern correctly we would unfortunately see the 6z or 12z GFS quickly turn warmer. We shall find out...

[Requiem]

1 minute ago, nwsnow said:

Hopefully the euro comes around with bringing down the cold air faster. I'll at least take the low going back south though. With that track, the gorge will pretty much make sure PDX gets some kind of event out of that. 

For being the superior model, the ECMWF is spiting out all kinds of different solutions run to run....

I know you meant to type “spitting” but “spiting” is pretty apt. You know I’m liking the low track, just need the cold to cooperate.

[smerfylicious]

The Euro went, in a span of 24 hours, from the greatest winter of some of our lifetimes to a total rug pull for anyone south of the Columbia River (with a big arctic rug pull for Washington as well).

Incredible disagreement with its own modeling. 

[Omegaraptor]

FWIW, if the Euro does cave to the GFS, pretty sure it wouldn’t be the first time in the last 10 days it did so.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

IF the EURO is handling the pattern correctly we would unfortunately see the 6z or 12z GFS quickly turn warmer. We shall find out...

Yeah... the ECMWF been on a northward journey for several runs now.   Hard to imagine it reversing.   

 

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

It's been flailing a little too much to call it that.

Maybe so.  This run in particular is pretty suspect with basically no cyclogenesis occurring as the lobe splits to the west.  Hard to imagine it going to sh*t THAT quickly but who knows...

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Chatting with IbrChris. He is VERY skeptical of the EURO, says it is warmer then every member of the GFS/CMC ensemble suite. 

This is what I told myself 2 weeks ago, when every GEFS/CMC ensemble member had a blizzard here and the Euro had a flat wave in the Carolinas.

You can probably guess who won that battle.

[Cloud]

2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

It's been flailing a little too much to call it that.

Yeah, it doesn't seem like it's starting any kind of trend so it's just flailing big time. I'm very skeptical of this solution so everyone should just relax and wait for the EPS. 

[Gradient Keeper]

PDX right on the borderline between sleet, snow mix, and major snow storm.

[SouthHillFrosty]

4 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

I'll listen to one consistently reliable and accurate model over a dozen of unreliable models.  

The Euro is the best model...except for this run. It literally completely flipped the pattern from the previous run. Nothing is even close to resembling this output. 

[Kolk1604]

5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

IF the EURO is handling the pattern correctly we would unfortunately see the 6z or 12z GFS quickly turn warmer. We shall find out...

Couple of things.

What's the Euros Track record with the PV? Seems to be struggling with it. @Phil mentioned models wouldn't struggle with this type of stuff

A couple of weeks ago, when we all said the Euro caved to the GFS, it lost the solution and then got it back. Could this be the case?

I may be reaching here, but not ready to give up yet. Not when this is the outlier. Yes, it's the goat, but it has been wrong before. 

[wxmet]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Still doesn't end up looking half bad for Western WA by Saturday.

 

Yup this run is still decent if you live in Washington.

[Requiem]

Is it weird I consider this run a small victory? Shows the EURO is just as capable of waffling, the low track doesn’t indeed go all the way up to Vancouver, and we’re pretty D**n close to a good event PDX-north.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Still doesn't end up looking half bad for Western WA by Saturday.

 

Speaks to the power of the arctic airmass we are on the edges of. 

[TT-SEA]

Still manages two snow events from Portland northward and colder temps later on without so much Pacific influence.

[snow_wizard]

I think the big story from his run is the surface low didn't trend north and the breakout over the ocean was really muted compared to previous runs.  Going the right way.  Certainly like the snow it shows up this way!

[Jesse]

7 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

FWIW Here's 10 PM Friday. Warm air isn't surging from the south on this run 

Yeah. One thing I think tends to get a little bit lost here is that sometimes just because there isn't pretty deep blue over us on the 500mb anomaly map doesn't tell you much about what the low levels are doing in situations like this. Especially with a beastly airmass relatively close by and the Pacific fairly blocked up.

[Kolk1604]

3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Still doesn't end up looking half bad for Western WA by Saturday.

 

Yeah and by Saturday 10 PM, the highest temps get is 35. Mainly uppers 20s and low 30s. Not as cold, but no surge of warm air. 

[bainbridgekid]

I don't even think there was a single GFS ensemble member as warm as the Euro is at day 5.