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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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1 hour ago, Brennan said:

Home videos per my pops shows at least 2-3” in their backyard with a temp if 5* on the morning of Feb 1 or 2...  near lake whatcom.

I do remember that area had a bit more snow than downtown Bellingham and toward the water.   Went to someones house about that time and there was a few inches.

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3 minutes ago, mtep said:

D**n that's wild! What year was that? 

I'm pretty sure it was January 2017 when we skated on Lake Whatcom. Pretty freaking incredible.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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North CZ seems to be taking over and is really firing. Could get intersting for parts of Snohomish County the next couple hours.

 

WUNIDS_map (2).gif

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Looks like EPS is following the operational. This is where the EURO earns its money. Bag of for Oregon. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, Phil said:

EPS following OP.

It is going to lead the way. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Pretty close to being able to stick a fork in winter below 1000'. 

 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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This climate sucks... we are always so close yet so far.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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2 hours ago, mtep said:

Noob question: is the reason that the Bham area is getting shafted on the maps snow-wise because the outflow winds are modeled to be too strong for much precip to make it up here?

Yeah as others have said, we usually have to "take one for the team" on these big regional arctic events.  I encourage you to not watch the radar if there is moisture streaming in from the west.  It hits that outflow and evaporates.  Not for the faint of heart.  Sometimes a slug of moisture will form along the leading edge of the arctic air, and we can usually snag a quick few inches off that. 

 

Selfishly I will say that it really sucks to be up here freezing our nuts off with bare ground while points south are getting absolutely buried, but its all part of the game.  I worked with several people who commute up from down south and there have been plenty of times where they say its bare and dry down there, then everything goes to sh** (in reference to driving conditions) as they work their way up through the canyon and hit Fairhaven.

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1 minute ago, Requiem said:

This climate sucks... we are always so close yet so far.

What's sad is I remember you posting this in 2019, 2020, 2021 now. You were 100% right every time. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

I'm pretty sure it was January 2017 when we skated on Lake Whatcom. Pretty freaking incredible.

That's awesome dude, I figured it would've been before I moved here. That was such a good winter. BTW this is kinda random but are you the member who's named Mattias? I remember someone mentioning a poster with my same name/spelling winter before last and thinking someone somehow knew who I was IRL 😂 sorry if I'm completely tripping 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

What's sad is I remember you posting this in 2019, 2020, 2021 now. You were 100% right every time. 

Very very much hoping I’m wrong— with this much disagreement I’m sure the EURO could be underplaying it. Even still the operational at face value isn’t horrible.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Just now, mtep said:

That's awesome dude, I figured it would've been before I moved here. That was such a good winter. BTW this is kinda random but are you the member who's named Mattias? I remember someone mentioning a poster with my same name/spelling winter before last and thinking someone somehow knew who I was IRL 😂 sorry if I'm completely tripping 

Yep. That's crazy. I've literally met one person with my name in my life before. He's a student at the school I teach at so everytime he does something wrong I always think I'm in trouble.😅

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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New nickname for the EURO. 
 

Soul Crusher!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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It might be too outlandish but perhaps we shouldn’t give up on at least some wintry weather in Portland. Gorge is a surprising thing. Even the EURO is decent.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

There is still a lot of uncertainty, even on the almighty Euro. Way too early to call it quits, IMO.

The Thursday/Friday system could go anywhere from S OR to the north tip of VI. The Saturday system has an even greater area of possible locations. Too much up in the air still.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nw-mslp_with_low_locs-3088000-2.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nw-mslp_with_low_locs-3239200.png

Not liking how many lows go north now. We get cold if those south solutions verify though. If you could post the PDX ensemble snow charts again that would be awesome, thanks for doing it with the 18z.

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30 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

It gets cold in 2 days.  What the hell is the believable range then?  Still think highs will be in the 50's this week?  As far as snow goes, you know that snow can never be really predicted well within about 48 hours, sometimes even less than that.

6 hours.

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1 minute ago, Requiem said:

It might be too outlandish but perhaps we shouldn’t give up on at least some wintry weather in Portland. Gorge is a surprising thing. Even the EURO is decent.

The Requiem post bad run wrap-up™

1. This state is trash

2. Guess I shouldn't have hoped for anything this sucks

3. Ehhh actually it's not so bad maybe

4. Let's wait and see guys cmon who knows

 

 

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7 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Yep. That's crazy. I've literally met one person with my name in my life before. He's a student at the school I teach at so everytime he does something wrong I always think I'm in trouble.😅

That's hilarious 😂 I've somehow met two in Bham. One was a guy I delivered pizza to a few months back and the other chased me down after hearing my name called at Chipotle last week lol

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2 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

The Requiem post bad run wrap-up™

1. This state is trash

2. Guess I shouldn't have hoped for anything this sucks

3. Ehhh actually it's not so bad maybe

4. Let's wait and see guys cmon who knows

 

 

You’re not wrong, just trying to find some optimism I guess.

  • Like 2

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Leading edge of the C-zone just hit here and it's entirely frozen. Looks like small hail. Radar looks pretty good for here.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Even the euro at face value would deliver an interesting event in PDX with some crazy mix of snow, sleet and ZR along with good east winds. More than the borderline snow, I'm a bit disappointed by how much the airmass is moderated.

Just look at the striking differences between the the Euro and GFS/GEM/UKMET. The trough barely makes southward progress. The Euro easily looks the most realistic though and we have to admit the others look like some kind of weather p0rn.

850th.us_nw.png

850th.us_nw.png

850th.us_nw.png

850th.us_nw.png

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