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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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Just now, mtep said:

I wonder when I'll see 40F again after it dips down in an hour or so... hopefully not until next week. 

huh.....I've been below 40 since about 5-6pm.....currently at 36.7.  But to your point yeah, hopefully it is the last time we see 40 for a while.  This will potentially be a big test for my wife regarding our discussions about a potential move to New England.  They are forecasted to be in the 20 during the day, single digits at night, and 20" of snow according to the goofus.

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50/36 for today. +1.1F departure. No measurable rainfall and partly cloudy.

Small sample size but Feb is currently running +2.4F so far. Good news is we have been slightly above normal in the precip department to this point.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

You know it. What time is the 06z GFS?

It starts at 1:30 and will be through day ten by 2:30.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Down to 34. Chilly night out on the front porch. 

36AA0F6C-00AD-41BC-84A4-83EB8CD9A6CB.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Those temps for Seattle the GFS is showing are just insanely cold. Even 2019 and 1996 were not THAT cold.  You would have to go back to  Dec 2008 to find a stretch like that. Looking at the stats on NOAA 2008 was pretty amazing, I forgot how cold it was and for how long, with 13 straight days with highs in the 30's.

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8 minutes ago, Jesse said:

That dog looks like it’s seen some sh*t

She’s been roaming the hills for 8 years now. She s kind of gotten old overnight, she used to range at night, but now sleeps on the porch. Best dog you ll ever find. She has killed many skunks and possums who were raiding the hen house over the years, and more than a few coyotes. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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54 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

huh.....I've been below 40 since about 5-6pm.....currently at 36.7.  But to your point yeah, hopefully it is the last time we see 40 for a while.  This will potentially be a big test for my wife regarding our discussions about a potential move to New England.  They are forecasted to be in the 20 during the day, single digits at night, and 20" of snow according to the goofus.

Finally down to 39 here. My area in the Samish neighborhood sometimes takes a while to cool down at night compared to areas farther north, not sure why. I hope that test goes in your favor! I've thought about living in Vermont/New Hampshire/Maine quite a bit, it seems like a really cool area. 

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1 minute ago, wxmet said:

A462A7C8-8B8D-4FEA-A7B6-5AF702917257.png

NAM is on team EURO.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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NAM is very similar to its last run. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, nwsnow said:

Its worse than Euro for that first system. A bit further north and the 850s look even worse. All rain.

namconus_T850_nwus_53.png

No basin cold pool at all.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

6z GFS in 35 minutes. How do you think it will play out? I think 2

 

1) Holds firm. Arctic blast

2) Moves towards EURO, but still plenty cold enough Salem north for snow

3) Completely caves towards the EURO with the arctic trough stalling and splitting

4) Coldest run yet

3

I’m so jaded now. 
 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

6z GFS in 35 minutes. How do you think it will play out? I think 2

 

1) Holds firm. Arctic blast

2) Moves towards EURO, but still plenty cold enough Salem north for snow

3) Completely caves towards the EURO with the arctic trough stalling and splitting

4) Coldest run yet

I'm going to stay with 1. (Not sure how you can get much colder)

I love underdogs so I'm going to stick with it. Everyone thinks the EURO is so great and that it will verify. As of right now the EURO is the one that's fallen off.

I could be wrong, but I'm hoping for the best. And I'm rooting for you guys in Oregon too

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195572.png?1673757432

 

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