February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[Kolk1604]

@SouthHillFrostyDon't be sad it only goes out 84 hours.

It can't even walk straight so I always discount it anyway

[Gradient Keeper]

6z NAM Day 2 to 3.5 shows the dog pattern aka EURO. Ridge offshore doesn't hold and allows the arctic trough to dig westward which then merges with the low offshore. This SUCKS!

[Jbolin]

10 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

How does the 9z Zimbabwean model look? It doesn't look cold or snowy, but it does appear we'll be getting a Camel soon for a forum mascot.

2mT of 109F 

[snow drift]

16 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

6z GFS in 35 minutes. How do you think it will play out? I think 2

 

1) Holds firm. Arctic blast

2) Moves towards EURO, but still plenty cold enough Salem north for snow

3) Completely caves towards the EURO with the arctic trough stalling and splitting

4) Coldest run yet

Tomo numero dos, por favor

[Jbolin]

Not buying into the "hope" hype. 

Been disappointed more times than an orphan up for adoption.

[SouthHillFrosty]

11 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

@SouthHillFrostyDon't be sad it only goes out 84 hours.

It can't even walk straight so I always discount it anyway

Oh I know just some disappointing trends lately that’s all!

[Jbolin]

13 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

@SouthHillFrostyDon't be sad it only goes out 84 hours.

It can't even walk straight so I always discount it anyway

"Can't walk straight sober"

[snow drift]

7 minutes ago, JBolin said:

Not buying into the "hope" hype. 

Been disappointed more times than an orphan up for adoption.

It's hard for me to be disappointed. My winter months are December and January. If they perform well, I'm satisfied. Anything in February is icing on the cake. Unfortunately, it looks like this year the cake is made out of dog s$!#.

[Omegaraptor]

06z ICON not as cold as 00z but still very cold, more like 00z GFS

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Night shift with a big run coming up. Will the GFS dash all hope?

[Jbolin]

Just now, Omegaraptor said:

06z ICON not as cold as 00z but still very cold, more like 00z GFS

The ICON was off the f**** rails with it's upper air and surface based temps, that would have been record breaking, especially some of the overnight lows for the urban area/s.

[Jbolin]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Night shift with a big run coming up. Will the GFS dash all hope?

They way it's been "going" since Thursday night, probably not

[SouthHillFrosty]

Night boys. I’ll be here for 12z

[snow drift]

A slow death of our once spectacular winter weather event...twas a torrent...now tis a trickle

[Rubus Leucodermis]

33 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

6z GFS in 35 minutes. How do you think it will play out? I think 2

 

1) Holds firm. Arctic blast

2) Moves towards EURO, but still plenty cold enough Salem north for snow

3) Completely caves towards the EURO with the arctic trough stalling and splitting

4) Coldest run yet

3.

[snow_wizard]

The 6z ICON is cold, the 0z UKMET is cold, the 0z GFS was cold, the 0z GEM was cold.  The ECMWF is out numbered.  The UKMET looks fantastic for NW OR and SW WA.  The 6z NAM looks like a very snowy day for Seattle on Thursday.  Lots to sort out still.

[snow drift]

                       NAMED EURO

Mr. T is on our side.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GFS Day 1

(Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

(Past 4 runs)

[snow_wizard]

The NWS is all in on the cold, but playing it safe on the snow for now.  They only have a slight chance for Thursday and that could very well be a big day.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 2

(Past 4 runs)

No sign of going Euro on us.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 Looks like garbage

(Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

Pretty decent actually

[wxmet]

Low is much further north this run

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3.5 Going towards EURO

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3.5 850s still plenty of arctic air Gorge, Columbia Basin

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Welp, that should do it. Time to start thinking about the draft and hopefully next winter can provide some excitement.

[Gradient Keeper]

PDX Snow storm

[snow drift]

Another fragrant Gfs run

[wxmet]

Still ends up being good for PDX but you do get the feeling it’s moving towards the ECMWF

[Kolk1604]

Thursday looks quite cold and snowy for you Rob

[bainbridgekid]

6z gives PDX a foot of snow on Thursday. Playing with fire though with warm air and all rain Salem South.

[Omegaraptor]

Low landfalls into the exact same spot on the coast it landfalls into on the 00z

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

[Gradient Keeper]

[Gradient Keeper]

Major blast for the Gorge, Columbia Basin.. I just wish I trusted the GFS even 3 days out...

[snow drift]

2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Low landfalls into the exact same spot on the coast it landfalls into on the 00z

That's good

[snow drift]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

Major blast for the Gorge, Columbia Basin.. I just wish I trusted the GFS even 3 days out...

I'd rather have the Euro on my side

[IceKing]

hey guys i have arrived to get your hopes back up. you may already feel defeated, but it's not over. I went outside and licked my finger. i can confirm the air felt colder

[snow_wizard]

Looks like a perfect blend.  Just what I hoped for.