February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[TacomaWaWx]

46/40 today...0.30” so far as well. 

[Deweydog]

7 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

somebody who knows something tell me about this setup. All i can see is that temps seem much more seasonable/cool than the 12z after day 6. 

 

Coldest weather on the 18z occurs in the next few hours, fwiw.

[snow_wizard]

Looks lie the GFS continues the idea of the bizarre cold trough undercutting all of the blocking before day 10.  A cold outcome is showing up on over half of the runs now.  Too bad the parallel hasn't run since he 6z.  At least the 18z EPS will go out to day 6.

[Slushy Inch]

Another decent run, even had some snow.

[High Desert Mat?]

1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Also I’m sure you guys all share the sentiment that the flips and flops on the models have been pretty exhausting the last couple weeks. I see there appears to be some upcoming potential once again but sometimes it’s nice just to take a back seat for a day or two and see how things evolve.

Or four or five really. I mean the potential coming is having to get colder and the precip rates are going to have to be heavier as well with these sun angles if you want any meaningful snow to stick. Instead of -8C 850mb temps with flat gradients you’ll need -10C 850’s with flat or -12C 850’s with light onshore flow even. If it procrastinates even more we’ll need a full in ‘89 event to do anything. 
 

Im babbling and irritated that we can’t score in the heart of winter very often when the atmosphere is primed and the sun is low. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nother great run!

[Jesse]

1 hour ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Or four or five really. I mean the potential coming is having to get colder and the precip rates are going to have to be heavier as well with these sun angles if you want any meaningful snow to stick. Instead of -8C 850mb temps with flat gradients you’ll need -10C 850’s with flat or -12C 850’s with light onshore flow even. If it procrastinates even more we’ll need a full in ‘89 event to do anything. 
 

Im babbling and irritated that we can’t score in the heart of winter very often when the atmosphere is primed and the sun is low. 

It can be frustrating. There was a point where I was pretty “onboard” with something at least fairly interesting for the last half of January.

Was nice to see some lowland spots get snow on the 26th but overall the most the big pattern change did was keep us from scoring another top tier warm month. Which was great and all but it would have been fun to get a little more out of a -PNA period directly following some major warm first half of the winter karma. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Only 26 days until March now. We need something good to start showing up on the models in a hurry. We’re entering historically bad territory here as we’ve only had 7 freezes so far this winter and just one sub 40 high temp. Every month this cold season has been above average temp wise besides November which was average. 

[Timmy]

14 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Coldest weather on the 18z occurs in the next few hours, fwiw.

Day 7-12ish would be cooler than the next few hours by quite a bit.  Looks like cold offshore flow

[Deweydog]

Personally, I think all this moisture coming up out the gulf is gonna push off to the east and hit Altoona.

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Nother great run!

So great!  

Lots of dry days... no arctic air... very little lowland snow... warmer than the 12Z run... what else can we ask for?   

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Day 7-12ish would be cooler than the next few hours by quite a bit.  Looks like cold offshore flow

Could be.  Weak offshore flow starts to lose its punch pretty quickly from here on out though.  Thicknesses never drop as low as they are right meow.

[snow drift]

20 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Coldest weather on the 18z occurs in the next few hours, fwiw.

It looks pretty frigid. I may need a light jacket.

[BLI snowman]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

So great!  

Lots of dry days... no arctic air... very little lowland snow... warmer than the 12Z run... what else can we ask for?   

Really nice run if you just look at the potential for it to trend abruptly colder by 10c or so.

[MossMan]

I’m calling it along with JAYA...This one is over. 

[umadbro]

Oh good, I was beginning to worry about the east coast not getting enough blizzards

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I’m calling it along with JAYA...This one is over. 

Never really began!

[TT-SEA]

Total snow per the 18Z GFS over the next 16 days... to call this great is an understatement!    

[TheNewCulverJosh]

I am probably being overly optimistic but that shortwave moving in later tonight sure looks like a great setup/trajectory for the central valley foothillls, then eventually here overnight as the low passes by with some deformation......

[GHweatherChris]

Splats!

[MossMan]

25 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Total snow per the 18Z GFS over the next 16 days... to call this great is an understatement!    

Lightest shade of grey baby!! Woo Hoo!! 

[Tyler Mode]

Had a huge cell move just north of my station.  I recorded a gust to 35 mph, but no rain.  3 miles north, very heavy hail and fairly large for this area.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Anyone got the 18z ensemble spaghetti chart?!

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Anyone got the 18z ensemble spaghetti chart?!

Here is the 18Z GEFS mean at 240 hours... great run again.

 

[Omegaraptor]

GFS still wants to park the MJO in phase 6 for some reason. Euro still moves it to Phase 7.

[TT-SEA]

18Z GEFS at 300 hours...

 

[bainbridgekid]

Got some pretty serious showers West of Olympia right now. Heading NE toward the Sound.

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

37 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Total snow per the 18Z GFS over the next 16 days... to call this great is an understatement!    

Looking decent for us over here in Spokane!  YES, I am so loving it here!!!

[GHweatherChris]

3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Got some pretty serious showers West of Olympia right now. Heading NE toward the Sound.

 

That's what is giving me splats!!

[umadbro]

16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Anyone got the 18z ensemble spaghetti chart?!

 

[TT-SEA]

My son just reported positive splats at the Snoqualmie Ridge exit on I-90.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not what I asked for Tim. So literally thanks for nothing. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

There will be areas of snow down to about 500ft tonight i bet. I could see flakes coming down in a heavy shower few hrs ago here at work in port orchard.

[TheNewCulverJosh]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not what I asked for Tim. So literally thanks for nothing. 

I am expecting you to see at least a few inches overnight....perfect setup for you.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not what I asked for Tim. So literally thanks for nothing. 

Yeah... I don't have the link to the spaghetti charts.   Sorry about that.   But the GEFS mean is also worth posting.  

[umadbro]

Impressive temp drops during showers today. You can see the steep declines.

[FroYoBro]

4 minutes ago, umadbro said:

Impressive temp drops during showers today. You can see the steep declines.

A pretty good shower is moving through here. Some pretty gusty winds with the temperature drop. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

My son just reported positive splats at the Snoqualmie Ridge exit on I-90.

I heard it is snowing on Mt. Hood. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

15 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

I am expecting you to see at least a few inches overnight....perfect setup for you.

Pretty borderline as far as temps go though. Above 2000' should be great, we will see about here. 

[GHweatherChris]

Mostly snow coming down now, very wet, the flakes are barely surving the trip to the ground.