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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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I just experienced the craziest day of my life. Normal, routine doctor's visit quickly spiraled into a seven hour stay in the ER for a MRI scan to check for malignant tumors or multiple sclerosis. Tha

Downvote this post if you want snow.

Good morning,  As you know, back in late December I decided to end my jovial "ranting" here among you soulless bastard's to focus on more personal matters.  Well despite my better judgement

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1 minute ago, jcmcgaffey said:

Would this be the third time in the last 8 years a major snow storm dove south at the last minute and pounded Oregon?

More like the 300th...

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Looks like the ICON wants to bring a lot of warm air north, not bad for W. WA in this frame though. 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_24.png

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Okay I need to get the kids ready for bed. Nobody post anything for about 20min mmkay!!! I don’t want to spend the next two hours trying to catch up. 
 

Thanks from the whiner up north. 

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Just now, MossMan said:

Okay I need to get the kids ready for bed. Nobody post anything for about 20min mmkay!!! I don’t want to spend the next two hours trying to catch up. 
 

Thanks from the whiner up north. 

Whiner almost rhymes with weenier. 

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2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

The two redheaded stepchild models trended in southerners favor tonight. It's a start!

Actually the ICON has a massive snow storm Olympia north and is absolutely awful for PDX. 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_28.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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8 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Lol cause of two models WE NEVER LOOK AT said so 

lol pretty much my thoughts. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-66

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Pssh it’s just ICON and NAM, also who knows maybe ICON will have a huge storm next run?

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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I really hope this doesn't turn into just a quick overrunning event. I don't think I've ever gotten more than an inch or two in that scenario. I'm always shadowed until it gets too warm.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 6.9"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 

2020-21: 10.5" (2/10: Tr, 2/12: 0.5" , 2/13: 8.5", 2/14: 1.5")

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3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Okay I need to get the kids ready for bed. Nobody post anything for about 20min mmkay!!! I don’t want to spend the next two hours trying to catch up. 
 

Thanks from the whiner up north. 

Think DRY and WIND. C'MON!!!

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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1 minute ago, nwsnow said:

Mark going with a high of 28 on Friday. Quite remarkable for nearly mid Feb.

image.thumb.png.fb1aa6a3a547b52f7976eeafa169737b.png

I would bet against that. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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4 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

I really hope this doesn't turn into just a quick overrunning event. I don't think I've ever gotten more than an inch or two in that scenario. I'm always shadowed until it gets too warm.

That's what this is starting to look like to me.

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I would make a fortunate if we could bet on weather events. In this climate just hit the OVER and you will win almost every time. 

Snow Wizard would be down tens of thousands of dollars putting double or nothing on the next phantom arctic blast. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Think DRY and WIND. C'MON!!!

The lack of wind here has been amazing given the large pool of cold air nearby. Currently 31F with virtually no wind after a sunny windless 35F high here, typically such conditions would be accompanied by roaring outflow winds.

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2 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

Mark going with a high of 28 on Friday. Quite remarkable for nearly mid Feb.

image.thumb.png.fb1aa6a3a547b52f7976eeafa169737b.png

It would be the 2nd latest sub 30 high on record for PDX, behind the 29 on 3/3/1960. Back to back subfreezing highs by this point in the season has also only happened once, in 1956.

Also seems pretty rare to have a major ice storm by this point in the season, does anybody know of any examples of late season ice storms in the Portland area? Maybe BLI snowman?

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1 minute ago, JW8 said:

Who is Mark, and why is he talked about so much? Is he the only forecaster in PDX? Haha

Has a fairly accurate record, usually very conservative and calls busts early on, but he is gung ho on this system for Portland.

 

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Just now, James Jones said:

It would be the 2nd latest sub 30 high on record for PDX, behind the 29 on 3/3/1960. Back to back subfreezing highs by this point in the season has also only happened once, in 1956.

Also seems pretty rare to have a major ice storm by this point in the season, does anybody know of any examples of late season ice storms in the Portland area? Maybe BLI snowman?

Early Feb 1996?

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1 minute ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

The lack of wind here has been amazing given the large pool of cold air nearby. Currently 31F with virtually no wind after a sunny windless 35F high here, typically such conditions would be accompanied by roaring outflow winds.

Wind should be coming soon enough.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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Just now, GobBluth said:

Early Feb 1996?

Yeah that was about the 3rd though I think. Pretty significant icing event. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, Andrew M said:

Has a fairly accurate record, usually very conservative and calls busts early on, but he is gung ho on this system for Portland.

 

Got it, makes sense. Just seems like there's a lot put in to his statements on here. Kinda like looking at only one model, IMO.

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3 minutes ago, JW8 said:

Who is Mark, and why is he talked about so much? Is he the only forecaster in PDX? Haha

Mark Nelsen, well qualified and regarded met around here with a good track record. 

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1 minute ago, JW8 said:

Got it, makes sense. Just seems like there's a lot put in to his statements on here. Kinda like looking at only one model, IMO.

You can feel free to check out the Zaffino, Salesky, Shelby or Hill models. You will quickly find they are basically all just different versions of the NAM though.

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Yeah Mark is really #1 in PDX. Total geek like all of us too, not a newscaster reading a script, he legitimately loves weather. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

The lack of wind here has been amazing given the large pool of cold air nearby. Currently 31F with virtually no wind after a sunny windless 35F high here, typically such conditions would be accompanied by roaring outflow winds.

Looking like it’s friday night or bust here. The southerly trend tonight is undeniable

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

 

Yeah that was about the 3rd though I think. Pretty significant icing event. 

Yeah, but of course climo changes rapidly in February. Huge difference between the first few days of the month and even a week or two later.

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1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Wind should be coming soon enough.

Even tomorrow afternoon it's going to struggle against the predominantly onshore flow aloft. But it should pickup a little as the low approaches the coast. I'm happy with weak outflow winds, hasn't affected our ability to cool off.

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7 minutes ago, James Jones said:

It would be the 2nd latest sub 30 high on record for PDX, behind the 29 on 3/3/1960. Back to back subfreezing highs by this point in the season has also only happened once, in 1956.

Also seems pretty rare to have a major ice storm by this point in the season, does anybody know of any examples of late season ice storms in the Portland area? Maybe BLI snowman?

Yes, the 1960 event you mentioned is the latest in "modern times" with 1/4-1/2" ice accumulations following the snow.

Another big late one was 2/22/1957. Portland had an inch of snow before switching to ZR and then got about 3/4" of ice. The valley had a big ice storm with 1-2".

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

You can feel free to check out the Zaffino, Salesky, Shelby or Hill models. You will quickly find they are basically all just different versions of the NAM though.

If I had to pick a #2 I would pick Zaffino. I think if anything he has a cold bias, he knows what brings in the eyeballs. 

Salesky pretty much goes with the warmest, most boring forecast he can make, so he is probably pretty high up there in terms of accuracy. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah Mark is really #1 in PDX. Total geek like all of us too, not a newscaster reading a script, he legitimately loves weather. 

Makes sense. Not trying to discredit the guy. It's just different in the Seattle area- many more mets I trust really know their stuff.

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