February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[Skagit Weather]

14 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

My forecast is the arctic air barely ends up seeping southward of the Canadian border. Non event.

Yep, honestly would not be surprised to see the cold air get hung up somewhere in the Sound like last January, if not further north near the border. I praying that many of us will see snow and I definitely think it's possible (if not likely), but I haven't bought in completely. 

[Requiem]

I think the EURO shows us how vital and important the gorge is to winter events in Portland as a whole. That low level cold is no joke.

[snow_wizard]

14 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

12z NAM is a little delayed with Arctic air, maybe by a few hours, which is to be expected.

Let me reiterate: this is normal. It happens every time. Seriously. The NAM is way too overzealous with surface CAA, especially during Arctic events like these. A run-to-run delay by a few hours is expected. No reason to worry. I see people freak out about this on Twitter every time a new NAM run comes out.

I agree.  The cold bias of the NAM leaves it no choice but to go warmer on each update as the time in question gets closer.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Requiem said:

I think the EURO shows us how vital and important the gorge is to winter events in Portland as a whole. That low level cold is no joke.

Yup.  This is going be an exceptional cold air mass to draw from east of the Cascades also.  Even up here just the passes will do the job.

[wxmet]

NAM still insisting on that c-zone Wednesday night over Seattle.

[Kolk1604]

[mtep]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Would you mind posting BLI?

[Perturbed Member]

06z NAM is north

[bainbridgekid]

6z National Blend of Models through Saturday.

 

 

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

06z 3km NAM also still showing some juice with the convergence along the modified boundary on Wednesday. 

That heavier stuff is just west of us.  Might get something there.

[snow drift]

42 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

My forecast is the arctic air barely ends up seeping southward of the Canadian border. Non event.

The models are watering things down. I don't like the trends.

[TacomaWaWx]

Most stations in Bellingham are 26-28 degrees with DPs 10-15. Cold air rushing into NE WA as well. Many places up that way with temps in the teens with DPs single digits or below 0...with strong north winds moving into the Okanogan and kettle River valleys. 

[snow_wizard]

Just taking a quick look at the longer range stuff...something already seems to be emerging for late Feb / early March.  I think Phil has alluded to that as well.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Snowdrift said:

The models are watering things down. I don't like the trends.

It's going to be fine in WA.

[snow_wizard]

The NAM treats the PV tongue just the same as the 0z ECMWF at the 500mb level.  As Tim said the ECMWF has a much better handle on deformation zone details.

[snow drift]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

It's going to be fine in WA.

It's always a fine line. I want a big blast. I'm awaiting the 6z gfs. Let's hope it sticks to its guns.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Snowdrift said:

It's always a fine line. I want a big blast. I'm awaiting the 6z gfs. Let's hope it sticks to its guns.

Even the ECMWF is showing very cold 850s for you guys.

[snow_wizard]

Wow!  There are some places in BC approaching -40 now.

[Requiem]

Good night folks, hopefully models stay consistent. East winds and possible snow/ice/sleet, fun stuff.

[Kolk1604]

23 minutes ago, mtep said:

Would you mind posting BLI?

 

[mtep]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

 

Thanks!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 6z NAM now shows the weekend system. Good set-up for more snow depending on its track. Cold air will be in place.

 

[Kolk1604]

00z EPS 

[The Blob]

3 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

00z EPS 

I'm going with model 7 for pdx

[bainbridgekid]

Very impressively snowy EPS members for SEA. By Sunday:

89% (44/50) have at least 3"

62% (31/50) have at least 6"

50% (25/50) have at least 9"

38% (19/50) have at least 10"

20% (10/50) have at least 12"

[Jbolin]

3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Very impressively snowy EPS members for SEA. By Sunday:

89% (44/50) have at least 3"

62% (31/50) have at least 6"

50% (25/50) have at least 9"

38% (19/50) have at least 10"

20% (10/50) have at least 12"

Not a bad average of roughly 8"

[bainbridgekid]

Massive 3-day snowstorm for Western Washington on the 6z ICON.

 

[snow drift]

39 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Even the ECMWF is showing very cold 850s for you guys.

We'll get some cold. It's a matter of how much cold. The Euro is definitely warmer than the gfs. Model riding ain't for the faint of heart.

[BLI snowman]

ICON is ugly down here by Saturday. Would be a quick, close event. 

[bainbridgekid]

6z ICON is riding the UKIE train. Rough for PDX but absolutely buries Western Washington.

 

 

[wxmet]

GFS 06z is much further north with the upper level low in the Pacific

 

[Meatyorologist]

Yep, GFS is a move north.

[bainbridgekid]

Big move North on the 6z GFS. Makes sense with how much if an outlier it is right now.

 

[wxmet]

 

[bainbridgekid]

Night and day difference.

[Meatyorologist]

This is a gorgeous run.

[bainbridgekid]

This is just through 7AM Friday. May be more to come over the weekend. So much better than previous runs which kept everything way South.

[TacomaWaWx]

Figured this was going to happen. Big snow PDX north on this run. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Looks like plenty of cold air to tap into up north...probably overdoing it a bit though. Hopefully the gfs and euro meet somewhere in the middle regarding temps. 

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

This is just through 7AM Friday. May be more to come over the weekend. So much better than previous runs which kept everything way South.

also much colder