February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Heard the ensembles looked volatile. 

[Winterdog]

I just looked at the ensembles.  Quite improved!  Run not quite done but looking much better

[Omegaraptor]

Great that we're seeing cold air build up in BC. Need to get more members below -8C though

[Winterdog]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Why would it be dreary?  I think tonight's runs have been pretty interesting.

I've seen this forum be much more chipper.  Some are more down than others of course.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z ECMWF Day 1

Not even close. F.CK!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A few magic 8 ballz on there. 

[GHweatherChris]

1 hour ago, bainbridgekid said:

This is unequivocally false. The 10-14 day period was basically a complete crap shoot then. They're much more consistent about the big picture 500mb anomolies now. 

they are just a complete crap shoot now, worse than basically.

[SouthHillFrosty]

3 minutes ago, Acer said:

I just looked at the ensembles.  Quite improved!  Run not quite done but looking much better

Came to be disappointed by the ensembles. Nice improvement by them. 

[Deweydog]

NICE!

[GHweatherChris]

I feel like Jim is now trolling all of us, there is nothing to be excited about in any believable range on any model.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Well at least it's close to us...

-8 850s  is cold.

[GeorgeWx]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Well at least it's close to us...

No way this verifies. The Rockies will block most of the Arctic air in this progression. Could get below average anomalies but not this cold.

[snow_wizard]

I am just thankful we have a very legit shot at seeing multiple shots of chilly to cold continental cold air over the next two weeks or more. It will be a nice change.  Always keep in mind it's easy to get some moisture into the mix on short notice as well once the cold is here.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 Ummm....

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, GeorgeWx said:

No way this verifies. The Rockies will block most of the Arctic air in this progression. Could get below average anomalies but not this cold.

Cold air can and does come from the east sometimes.  We had 850s of about -18 straight from the east in Feb 2006.  It just takes persistent back digging.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

Day 3 Ummm....

The low near Hawaii is trending much healthier in the home stretch.

[Gradient Keeper]

Cut off low much further southwest

[RentonHill]

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

[Gradient Keeper]

EURO further west than the GFS, GEM

[bainbridgekid]

Block is definitely stronger and a bit further West on the Euro compared to the GFS at hour 96.

 

 

[Winterdog]

The Kona low is moving easterly and may again screw this up.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 4

Better.  The thing that's really helping is the trough spreading out across the north instead of an epic trough digging into the upper Midwest.  It's going to get cold. The question is how cold.

[snow_wizard]

A lot more cold air in BC at day 4 than last night's day 5 solution.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 A bit closer. Not there yet

 

[MossMan]

Baby steps continue! 

[TT-SEA]

The 00Z ECMWF is actually a little bit east with the trough on Sunday compared to the 12Z run.

[bainbridgekid]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 00Z ECMWF is actually a little bit east with the trough on Sunday compared to the 12Z run.

True but the 12z Euro was WAY West and way colder than the GFS around day 6-7. Good to see the 00z sticking to that theme.

[TT-SEA]

Sunday afternoon... 12Z ECMWF on top and 00Z run on the bottom.    Slightly east on the 00Z run.

 

[bainbridgekid]

Huge differences between the Euro and GFS at day 5.

 

[snow_wizard]

Out of the big 3 at day 5 the ECMWF is the coldest by an eyelash over the GEM and the GFS is quite a bit milder.  The ECMWF at least brushes us with cold air.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Out of the big 3 at day 5 the ECMWF is the coldest by an eyelash over the GEM and the GFS is quite a bit milder.  The ECMWF at least brushes us with cold air.

Yeah... its chilly but not cold on Sunday.

 

[snow_wizard]

To me it's incredible we have such poor model agreement even at day 5 given the better models we have now than years back.  This is going to be fun to watch.

[bainbridgekid]

Just now, hawkstwelve said:

Not going to be as quick to dismiss the GFS this time around. 

Yeah that's the same trough for February 7th that the Euro had as an Arctic blast for us a couple days ago.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

[Winterdog]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... its chilly but not cold on Sunday.

 

Great point.

[snow_wizard]

It certainly appears the more the main body of cold stays in Canada east of the Rockies the better we end up doing.  There is still time for it trend even more north in that regard.

[Winterdog]

I don't think this run is going to pull Chris out of his believable range funk.

[Gradient Keeper]

I almost get the sense that we're going to see more improvements now that we're talking Day 3-6 and not Day 7+ We Just need the cut-off to head south to Hawaii, build heights further west, and pull the base of the trough around. Not impossible.