bainbridgekid Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 18z looks like it spits out a high of 31 for Seattle both Monday and Tuesday. 5 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 One interesting thing on the 12z EPS is a fair number of members showed a long cold wave. that just might be possible now. February is the bomb lately. 6 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Won’t be long until we are in NAM territory!! More models to ride!!! 5 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 5 minutes ago, MossMan said: Yes Well to answer your original question, I'm all aboard! 1 2 Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 18Z GFS for the win! 4 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christensen87 Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 It's incredible that GFS was actually predicting this last week. Cold air arriving around the 6th-7th. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtep Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Let's get this snowwwww 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, Snowdrift said: Pretty much Just a little inside joke 5 1 Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: 18z looks like it spits out a high of 31 for Seattle both Monday and Tuesday. This could actually end up colder than 2019 in some ways. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Khoine Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Could Komo weather hunches be like a new thing? ️🌨Let’s go arctic blast within 96 hours. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Days and days of cold strong offshore flow... I love it! 4 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, MossMan said: Won’t be long until we are in NAM territory!! More models to ride!!! Has the NAM been good? 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Right now this winter is a D-. A Polar Vortex into the NW is like getting an A on your final when you have a D average. A Polar Vortex would lift this winter to a solid B average. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: One interesting thing on the 12z EPS is a fair number of members showed a long cold wave. that just might be possible now. February is the bomb lately. February has become the bread winner. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, Snowdrift said: Right now this winter is a D-. A Polar Vortex into the NW is like getting an A on your final when you have D average. A Polar Vortex would lift this winter to a solid B average. Story of my academic career lol 3 1 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Incredible trends. This could get really good in the next few runs. 5 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 10 minutes ago, Timmy said: Was it feb 2014 that suddenly did this too? Not really. The models showed arctic air making it here fairly consistently during that lead up. The cold ended up being less extreme as the big shift was 2-3 days out to give us lows and snow (in the Portland area) instead of a dry arctic blast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 All of us right now... 4 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JW8 Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 OPER does not appear to be a big outlier... 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Going to need the models to find more snow before the block goes away. Even the stellar 18Z run is sparse on snow which is bad for a model that ALWAYS over-estimates snow. 1 1 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Talk about a holy f*cking sh*t change on the models. I don’t think I’ve ever seen such drastic changes especially within a few days. Looked like a major Arctic outbreak for the east coast now looks like we could get it instead. 4 Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, Requiem said: Story of my academic career lol What do you call a D average engineer? Answer: an engineer 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 3 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 On 2/1/2021 at 12:21 PM, SilverFallsAndrew said: Phil, you’ve been rather distant since every one of your forecasts fell into the outhouse. Lol Andrew 2 1 2 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Just now, hawkstwelve said: Snow through Thursday AM is not that impressive but given how much of a westward trend we have seen on the models up to this point, it wouldn't surprise me to see a bit more of a westward push and get some of that cold air over the ocean to spin up a low. Not worried about it at this point. Exactly. IF models continue to edge the arctic air further west we could establish short-over-water trajectory, oh and it would be brutally cold too! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: All of us right now... Guns are slowly being pulled away from heads. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 18Z GFS for the win! 1 1 1 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Exactly. IF models continue to edge the arctic air further west we could establish short-over-water trajectory, oh and it would be brutally cold too! YESSSSSS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Going to need the models to find more snow before the block goes away. Even the stellar 18Z run is sparse on snow which is bad for a model that ALWAYS over-estimates snow. Leave it to Tim to dampen the mood.... sike! You're totally right too, it would be a bummer to end up getting real cold and have nothing to show for it besides...well, the cold. 1 1 Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Snow through Thursday AM is not that impressive but given how much of a westward trend we have seen on the models up to this point, it wouldn't surprise me to see a bit more of a westward push and get some of that cold air over the ocean to spin up a low. Not worried about it at this point. In the dark blue, let’s spread it out! Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 24 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: Crazy shift for 5 days out. Cold shifts a good 1,500 miles further West the last two runs. That’s pretty incredible stuff right here. Wonder if it’ll shift even further west. Snow maps don’t look impressive at the moment but they’re not really believable at this range anyways. Could end up with some snow possibly. 2 Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 5 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Talk about a holy f*cking sh*t change on the models. I don’t think I’ve ever seen such drastic changes especially within a few days. Looked like a major Arctic outbreak for the east coast now looks like we could get it instead. Yeah...the thing shifted over half a continent. Talk about terrible model performance. 3 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, jakerepp said: Leave it to Tim to dampen the mood.... sike! You're totally right too, it would be a bummer to end up getting real cold and have nothing to show for it besides...well, the cold. Still too far out for snow maps to even be reliable at this point. Could very well end up getting snow still. I’d be happy just getting the cold though. 1 Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Again at the same time I still remember January 2020– so to say I’m cautiously optimistic would be overstating it a bit. 1 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Just now, snow_wizard said: Yeah...the thing shifted over half a continent. Talk about terrible model performance. The ECMWF had it right initially. For some reason it lost the solution for 2 days. 3 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Fantastic trends across the board with 12z OP/Ensembles. Now the 18z Op is even better. Cautiously optimistic. If 00z suite of models tonight continues this I'll be a bit more confident. We need to see this until we're about 72 hours out to lock this in. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Going to need the models to find more snow before the block goes away. Even the stellar 18Z run is sparse on snow which is bad for a model that ALWAYS over-estimates snow. who knows...that ridge might not exist in a few more model runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 ALL ABOARD THE HYPE TRAIN 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said: That’s pretty incredible stuff right here. Wonder if it’ll shift even further west. Snow maps don’t look impressive at the moment but they’re not really believable at this range anyways. Could end up with some snow possibly. At least the 18z started to show some snow. One more step west and we could get nailed BIG. We just need the next couple of runs to trend a tad more favorably now. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said: Still too far out for snow maps to even be reliable at this point. Could very well end up getting snow still. I’d be happy just getting the cold though. True! I'd much rather have it show us cold 5 days out than to see Pepto for 11 days out. 1 Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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