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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You are a met? This run is a massive step back in every way. The big league cold isn’t even in the vicinity. 

With a Bachelor’s degree, yes.

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I just experienced the craziest day of my life. Normal, routine doctor's visit quickly spiraled into a seven hour stay in the ER for a MRI scan to check for malignant tumors or multiple sclerosis. Tha

Downvote this post if you want snow.

Good morning,  As you know, back in late December I decided to end my jovial "ranting" here among you soulless bastard's to focus on more personal matters.  Well despite my better judgement

Posted Images

Total snow over the next week per the 00z GFS.   Randy!!

And it looks really pathetic for the Oregon Cascades.

snodpc_acc.us_nw (2).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Andrew is back to being negative sad Andrew so that must mean...

WINTER IS BACK ON! 

Wait 5 minutes.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I don't care what anyone thinks but these models really seem to be worse than ever before. 

Some people like to think we've made massive strides in the past 10 years, but I think it's at best, incremental gains.

Low. Solar.

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3 minutes ago, GeorgeWx said:

Where’s Jim?

I am sure he will be on later.

Jim has been very even-keeled lately... I am sure he remains positive.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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And a slight eastward shift marks the difference between subfreezing highs and no highs below 40 for Portland.

Isn't it lovely how the stars and molecules have to align perfectly to give us cold and snow? 

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3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Some people like to think we've made massive strides in the past 10 years, but I think it's at best, incremental gains.

I am always impressed with the ECMWF for surface details.

And regarding the current situation... I am guessing this is a unique set up where minor details have massive ramifications.   This situation is probably inherently challenging regardless of model improvements.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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It’s like these computer models are all suddenly being run on a 1984 Commodore 64 with a cassette deck drive...And someone accidentally put in a “Talking Heads” cassette instead of a data cassette...

DCD575C1-AC58-4382-AADC-425C3F2DEB2D.jpeg

3600EB52-4C43-4ADA-A3C1-3089D9A94132.jpeg

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I am always impressed with the ECMWF for surface details.

And regarding the current situation... I am guessing this is a unique set up where minor details have massive ramifications.   This situation is probably inherently challenging regardless of model improvements.

No doubt. But I still don't see evidence of massive improvement.

Low. Solar.

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1 minute ago, Three-Six-Zero said:

Is this normal behavior for Andrew to act like this after model runs? I’m new here 😂

As normal as the morning mist off of Silver Falls.

Welcome to the forum!

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5 minutes ago, Three-Six-Zero said:

Is this normal behavior for Andrew to act like this after model runs? I’m new here 😂

Devastating trends. In our climate, there is seldom good news. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 9.8"                        2020-21: 40.47"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Can't reasonably expect people to be exited about hour 186 at this point...

We are still a few days out from the colder solution  the models where originally trending towards,

plenty of time to change back to greatness with a few minor tweaks in the ridging❄️🥶

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6 minutes ago, Three-Six-Zero said:

Is this normal behavior for Andrew to act like this after model runs? I’m new here 😂

He oscillates between extreme optimism and total negativity.   Just wait 5 minutes.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Devastating trends. In our climate, there is seldom good news. 

Positive Andrew lasted how many hours? About 2 GFS runs? 😁

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Just now, Cloud said:

Positive Andrew lasted how many hours? About 2 GFS runs? 😁

I’m still feeling great. Very positive, having a great day. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 9.8"                        2020-21: 40.47"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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43 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You are a met? This run is a massive step back in every way. The big league cold isn’t even in the vicinity. 

Bro

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37 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I am always impressed with the ECMWF for surface details.

And regarding the current situation... I am guessing this is a unique set up where minor details have massive ramifications.   This situation is probably inherently challenging regardless of model improvements.

This. Really is something.

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Well I was definitely hoping models would be a little better than they are. Feels like another collapse, maybe just temporary setbacks.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

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Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Beautiful moment today. 

D10DB9F3-CC34-4D5B-997F-0DF6DE486063.jpeg

One of your dogs looks like it asked the other if it wanted to hear the most annoying sound in the world

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1 minute ago, Requiem said:

Well I was definitely hoping models would be a little better than they are. Feels like another collapse, maybe just temporary setbacks.

Matt told us this would happen...We didn’t listen. 

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10 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Hmm, I believe I said earlier that there could be disappointment, that guess sure did not disappoint. 

 

Doesn't mean much when every single one of your posts have been negative

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5 minutes ago, Bryant said:

Doesn't mean much when every single one of your posts have been negative

Nothing I have said has been negative at all, sorry not sorry that I won't conform to popular narrative when there really isn't anything promising within reach, that's not negative, it's fact.

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Definitely a step back, but atleast were in the ballpark still. Considering the massive swings run to run not too surprising we haven’t zeroed in on a solution yet. Hopefully things can trend better. At the very least things are looking much better than they were 36 hours ago. 

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-14

Monthly rainfall-5.05”

Cold season rainfall-31.87”

Snowfall-15.5”

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We’re still dealing with a pretty decent set up for cold. Hopefully the euro is still good tonight. I get the feeling this will end up working out alright. 

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-14

Monthly rainfall-5.05”

Cold season rainfall-31.87”

Snowfall-15.5”

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