February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I’m not going to get my hopes up yet, but trends are positive.

[MossMan]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Going to need the models to find more snow before the block goes away.   Even the stellar 18Z run is sparse on snow which is bad for a model that ALWAYS over-estimates snow.

Dry blast is NO GOOD!! I am getting vibes of December 2009 and February 2014.

[snow_wizard]

The ensemble mean is running about 1.5 or 2C colder on 850s through the 8th than the 12z.

[jakerepp]

4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

who knows...that ridge might not exist in a few more model runs...

Nothing is off the table, at this point.

[High Desert Mat?]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah...the thing shifted over half a continent.  Talk about terrible model performance.

SSW for the win really. It messes with the models since it began. I would bank on that for what is happening. 

[snow drift]

4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Fantastic trends across the board with 12z OP/Ensembles. Now the 18z Op is even better. Cautiously optimistic. If 00z suite of models tonight continues this I'll be a bit more confident. We need to see this until we're about 72 hours out to lock this in.

I'm trying not to get my hopes up too much. I saw the Druncle out behind the shed with a bottle of Wild Turkey. He'll sober up by 00z.

 

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Dry blast is NO GOOD!! I am getting vibes of December 2009 and February 2014.

Regardless I'm thrilled to see some solid cold in the believable range.  You have to have cold to get snow.  Besides....you know how terrible snowfall predictions are even a day out sometimes.

[MossMan]

Cliff Mass said yesterday NOT to give up just yet...
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/?m=1

[Phil]

Justin lighting fires in the Arctic as we speak.

1 minute ago, High Desert Mat? said:

SSW for the win really. It messes with the models since it began. I would bank on that for what is happening. 

There’s another stratwarm going on right now actually. Not a full blown wind reversal but a event nonetheless.

[High Desert Mat?]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Dry blast is NO GOOD!! I am getting vibes of December 2009 and February 2014.

February of ‘14 gave me the biggest snowstorm I’ve seen in my lifetime. 35” over 3 days. 

[snow_wizard]

Looking at the 12z EPS ensembles again....about 1/4 of the members showed a very long cold snap.  The mean didn't reflect it well, but there were a number of members that really froze our balls off.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, High Desert Mat? said:

February of ‘14 gave me the biggest snowstorm I’ve seen in my lifetime. 35” over 3 days. 

I got nothin. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We gotta work on the long range though.

[TacomaWaWx]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Dry blast is NO GOOD!! I am getting vibes of December 2009 and February 2014.

That was still pretty fun though IMO. Cold isn’t as cool without snow...but still cool considering how warm this winters been so far. Wouldn’t be surprised if we did end up squeezing a bit of snow out...idk probably best not to jump on the hype train just yet considering how crazy the models have been...but really good signs over the last 24 hours. 

[Deweydog]

Psaki has been hinting at models circling back for a couple weeks now.

#fukyoujudahyoutallglassofwater

[Meatyorologist]

For a pattern that "needs improvements", this is pretty stellar.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

That was still pretty fun though IMO. Cold isn’t as cool without snow...but still cool considering how warm this winters been so far. Wouldn’t be surprised if we did end up squeezing a bit of snow out...idk probably best not to jump on the hype train just yet considering how crazy the models have been...but really good signs over the last 24 hours. 

Indeed.  I happen to love cold just by itself.  Nothing like feeling that bite when you walk outside.  It also has tendency to lead to more cold.  FWIW February cold waves are historically pretty prolific in the snow department.  Even 2014 hit hard to our south.

[Omegaraptor]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We gotta work on the long range though.

The models are so volatile anything more than 168 hours out is clown range.

[paulb/eugene]

18z GFS ensembles show remarkable trend towards colder weather.  OLM 500mb height mean down 60 meters from 12z at hour 120

[Winterdog]

48 minutes ago, MossMan said:

What do you think AcreJake...Should we be on board yet or hold off?? 

Since I'm reading this at 2:53pm I've seen the entire 18Z and I'm onboard.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Portland AFD says little chance of impactful weather through next 7 days.

[Requiem]

Fingers crossed for that Troutdale special easterly wind event 

[Omegaraptor]

By the way, Mt Hood gets below 0F next Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. If that verifies I will definitely have to get up there and ski.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We gotta work on the long range though.

I think the better the initial shot works out the longer it will lock in.  As I mentioned a number of EPS members were cold for quite a while.

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Indeed.  I happen to love cold just by itself.  Nothing like feeling that bite when you walk outside.  It also has tendency to lead to more cold.  FWIW February cold waves are historically pretty prolific in the snow department.  Even 2014 hit hard to our south.

Yeah we will see. Would be nice to get some snow out of this IF we do indeed get any cold. I’d like to see some good runs for a couple more days as this was a pretty big shift. Would be nice to see a few runs spit out similar solutions or even move a hair or two west before totally buying in on this.

[Timmy]

1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

By the way, Mt Hood gets below 0F next Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. If that verifies I will definitely have to get up there and ski.

skiing in 0f weather sucks

[Meatyorologist]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We gotta work on the long range though.

Here, I'll help...

[jakerepp]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

For a pattern that "needs improvements", this is pretty stellar.

We've been so spoiled with an awesome winter that anything in February had REALLY deliver to consider it significant. 

[snow_wizard]

The GFS ensemble mean bottoms out at -10.0 and the 12z was -8.6.  The control and op both hit around -14.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah we will see. Would be nice to get some snow out of this IF we do indeed get any cold. I’d like to see some good runs for a couple more days as this was a pretty big shift. Would be nice to see a few runs spit out similar solutions or even move a hair or two west before totally buying in on this.

I doubt we have to worry about it going too far west this time.  A bit further west would be great.  Given the trend and extremely short time frame now at least decent cold seems pretty likely.

[JW8]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The GFS ensemble mean bottoms out at -10.0 and the 12z was -8.6.  The control and op both hit around -14.

Yeah...may not show a super prolonged cold snap right now, but certainly much more agreement on cold!

 

[TacomaWaWx]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I doubt we have to worry about it going too far west this time.  A bit further west would be great.  Given the trend and extremely short time frame now at least decent cold seems pretty likely.

Definitely. Very happy about today’s trends at this point. 

[BLI snowman]

28 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Dry blast is NO GOOD!! I am getting vibes of December 2009 and February 2014.

It snowed 13" in February 2014 down here.

Move south.

[Omegaraptor]

29 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Dry blast is NO GOOD!! I am getting vibes of December 2009 and February 2014.

This winter has been scraping the bottom of the barrel for cold and snow, thus far.

There is nowhere to go from here but up.

[BLI snowman]

 

17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Portland AFD says little chance of impactful weather through next 7 days.

Best sign yet.

[paulb/eugene]

This is the PacNW weather version of Clyde Drexler stealing the inbounds pass from the 76ers with three seconds left for a breakaway dunk and the win, very satisfying to steal cold air from the East Coast.  Seems even more enjoyable than waiting 12 days 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Icon says no 

[paulb/eugene]

1 minute ago, paulb/eugene said:

This is the PacNW weather version of Clyde Drexler stealing the inbounds pass from the 76ers with three seconds left for a breakaway dunk and the win, very satisfying to steal cold air from the East Coast.  Seems even more enjoyable than waiting 12 days 

Bet he’s pissed

[OysterPrintout]

We're gonna shove that sucker all the way to Japan at this pace.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, paulb/eugene said:

Bet he’s pissed

Poor JB.