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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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1 hour ago, Acer said:

Your comments sound so western Washington that I have to keep reminding myself that you are talking from the Spokane area. 🙄

I remember February 1989. We had a high of -4f with winds gusting to 40 mph. I remember dropping to -24f in 1996. Coincidentally, both of those years were la niña years.

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31 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

If it doesn't hit 50 today that will make 17 days in a row without a high above 48 IMBY.  Could end up being quite a string if we get through today.  Small victory I know, but it's actually somewhat impressive by recent standards.

:( Just so bummed about this dud of a winter thus far. For me, this actually summarizes how awful (not impressive) it's been. Persistent cold rain is the absolute worst case scenario in my opinion...though I suppose skiers may disagree. If we can't get cold/snow, please bring on the warmth and boating season!

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2 hours ago, Phil said:

Bro I’ve been tracking a nor’easter and spring semester started last week. My hands = full.

Certainly not my best performance this winter, but not the worst either. NH progression evolved similar enough to what I expected post-SSW but details were off. Probably thanks to the stubborn low pass IO component in January relative to MJO/sub seasonal variability.

Can’t deny I thought the early February arctic blast would occur in the West, not the Midwest/East. But that’s always a higher risk forecast because it doesn’t take much to change that equation.

Do you think the PNW has another chance at an arctic blast this month or have we run out of time in your mind?

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43 minutes ago, Phil said:

I have a feeling spring might be very chilly out there. Haven’t really dug into things yet, it’s more of a hunch. 

We are going to need another Miracle March to save us like in 2018, 2020. Seems like the Pacific HP ridge doesn't want to budge until March now days. We haven't had a big Nov/Dec storm cycle since 2012. 

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7 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

We are going to need another Miracle March to save us like in 2018, 2020. Seems like the Pacific HP ridge doesn't want to budge until March now days. We haven't had a big Nov/Dec storm cycle since 2012. 

Didn't you get like 4 feet of snow last week?

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Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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59 minutes ago, Phil said:

I have a feeling spring might be very chilly out there. Haven’t really dug into things yet, it’s more of a hunch. 

Probably because it's a Nina. Then again, it really hasn't behaved like a typical one, so who knows.

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Spring of 17 and 18’ were both fairly mild after March, so not a slam dunk we see a cool spring. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Talking to the local here this has been one of the warmest winters in many years here. Our snowfall for January was minor overall and melted quickly (in a day in most cases) here in the Valley. I really enjoyed it, but afternoon temps have been pretty warm. My good buddy who has lived here for 15 years says this is not normal to have zero snow on the ground this time of year and temps consistently in the upper 40's... I am honestly okay with it, love the snow we have gotten, and winter is not over, yet. :)

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2 minutes ago, luvssnow_seattle said:

Talking to the local here this has been one of the warmest winters in many years here. Our snowfall for January was minor overall and melted quickly (in a day in most cases) here in the Valley. I really enjoyed it, but afternoon temps have been pretty warm. My good buddy who has lived here for 15 years says this is not normal to have zero snow on the ground this time of year and temps consistently in the upper 40's... I am honestly okay with it, love the snow we have gotten, and winter is not over, yet. :)

The crappy western Wa weather followed you. 😞

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3 minutes ago, luvssnow_seattle said:

What is the latest discussion on the Polar Vortex split?  I am sure I am late to the party, just curious if this still look viable?

Might give us a sloppy half inch the first week of April! 

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32 minutes ago, westiztehbest said:

January finished as 10th least snowfall going back to 18xx.  A letdown for La Niña. 

An October cold spell usually bodes well for a cold and active la niña winter. That didn't happen this year.

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Fairly decent improvement on the EPS snowfall projections for Seattle.  Close to 2 inches on the mean with a few really good members.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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4 minutes ago, luvssnow_seattle said:

What is the latest discussion on the Polar Vortex split?  I am sure I am late to the party, just curious if this still look viable?

What a dud! Recent winters haven't been very cold. 2016-17 had snowcover for roughly three months. Feb-Mar 2019 was also a cold and snowy period.

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3 minutes ago, Snowdrift said:

An October cold spell usually bodes well for a cold and active la niña winter. That didn't happen this year.

DK Fail.gif

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

DK Fail.gif

Gotta wonder how many times you have to be right before people will acknowledge it? 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Gotta wonder how many times you have to be right before people will acknowledge it? 

Another couple years maybe?

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Today’s our 3rd day in a row with a 50+ high. 50/42 spread so far. 

We'll have to see if I can avoid it today.  48 currently with 850s starting to drop.  I might make it and keep the streak going.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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10 minutes ago, luvssnow_seattle said:

Talking to the local here this has been one of the warmest winters in many years here. Our snowfall for January was minor overall and melted quickly (in a day in most cases) here in the Valley. I really enjoyed it, but afternoon temps have been pretty warm. My good buddy who has lived here for 15 years says this is not normal to have zero snow on the ground this time of year and temps consistently in the upper 40's... I am honestly okay with it, love the snow we have gotten, and winter is not over, yet. :)

When I was a kid, we generally had snowcover from December-mid February. Highs in the 50s were unheard of in December and January. At one point, January was the coldest month. Now December is the coldest month. Spokane's climate has gotten milder in my lifetime.

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20 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

32 years ago this morning we all almost DIED at the bus stop.

I stepped outside, and I promptly stepped back inside. They ended up canceling school because of the extreme wind chill. I was giving the Home Alone fist pump.

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Really big 18z run coming up. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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For real though, October 1984 had a wicked cold spell around Halloween. That la niña winter turned out nice. October 1949 had a decent cold spell. We all know how that winter turned out. October cold spells during el niños are like dancing to "Tango Del Muerte".

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46 minutes ago, Snowdrift said:

An October cold spell usually bodes well for a cold and active la niña winter. That didn't happen this year.

The October thing isn’t real. The state of intraseasonal tropical forcing that favors western cold in October actually favors warmth by January thanks to seasonality of wave dynamics/number(s).

Seasonal transitions are also the most complex periods of the year in terms of the evolution of the system state, so it’s the least likely time of year for low frequency predictability to arise (that usually happens near/just after the solstices).

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

The October thing isn’t real. The state of tropical forcing that favors western cold in October actually favors warmth by January thanks to seasonality of wave dynamics/number(s).

Seasonal transitions are also the most complex periods of the year in terms of the evolution of the system state, so it’s the least likely time of year for low frequency predictability to arise (that usually happens near/just after the solstices).

So, in a sense, those years are noise. January 1985 had a strong inversion. We were cold despite the ridging. Oh well.

 

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9 minutes ago, rsktkr said:

Who? Did a member of the group pass away?

Google it.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Google it.

No idea who the **** that is. Was it COVID related? :(

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Tomorrow night looks like a good snow dump on the Oregon Cascade passes. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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