February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[TT-SEA 3764]

12Z EPS at day 10...

 

[Snowdrift 413]

1 hour ago, Acer said:

Your comments sound so western Washington that I have to keep reminding myself that you are talking from the Spokane area. 

I remember February 1989. We had a high of -4f with winds gusting to 40 mph. I remember dropping to -24f in 1996. Coincidentally, both of those years were la niña years.

[Khoine 39]

Notches hunches tacos warm only two lows below freezing no SE ridge never less than 300 hours out for front door back door Arctic air kind of winter

[Deweydog 14121]

RIP Dustin Diamond.

[SalemDuck 309]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS at day 10...

 

The 500mb pattern looks a bit better than what temps show. It also continues to improve through day 13.5 (where it's currently at).

[Snowdrift 413]

It's 50f currently. This reminds me so much of 1999-2000. 

[JW8 40]

31 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

If it doesn't hit 50 today that will make 17 days in a row without a high above 48 IMBY.  Could end up being quite a string if we get through today.  Small victory I know, but it's actually somewhat impressive by recent standards.

Just so bummed about this dud of a winter thus far. For me, this actually summarizes how awful (not impressive) it's been. Persistent cold rain is the absolute worst case scenario in my opinion...though I suppose skiers may disagree. If we can't get cold/snow, please bring on the warmth and boating season!

[Jginmartini 3832]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

RIP Dustin Diamond.

Just saw that! So sad....wasn’t feeling well in January so went to doctor only to find out he had cancer.  Happened so quick...scary  

[TheNewCulverJosh 410]

RIP Screech!!!

[hawkstwelve 7238]

Too bad this isn't Lake Washington...

 

[AbbyJr 492]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

Bro I’ve been tracking a nor’easter and spring semester started last week. My hands = full.

Certainly not my best performance this winter, but not the worst either. NH progression evolved similar enough to what I expected post-SSW but details were off. Probably thanks to the stubborn low pass IO component in January relative to MJO/sub seasonal variability.

Can’t deny I thought the early February arctic blast would occur in the West, not the Midwest/East. But that’s always a higher risk forecast because it doesn’t take much to change that equation.

Do you think the PNW has another chance at an arctic blast this month or have we run out of time in your mind?

[AlTahoe 390]

43 minutes ago, Phil said:

I have a feeling spring might be very chilly out there. Haven’t really dug into things yet, it’s more of a hunch. 

We are going to need another Miracle March to save us like in 2018, 2020. Seems like the Pacific HP ridge doesn't want to budge until March now days. We haven't had a big Nov/Dec storm cycle since 2012. 

[MWG 202]

It is 59 degrees and breezy. It should start raining soon too. NWS says rain/snow on Wednesday let's see what happens.

 

[bainbridgekid 3887]

7 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

We are going to need another Miracle March to save us like in 2018, 2020. Seems like the Pacific HP ridge doesn't want to budge until March now days. We haven't had a big Nov/Dec storm cycle since 2012. 

Didn't you get like 4 feet of snow last week?

[Omegaraptor 2393]

59 minutes ago, Phil said:

I have a feeling spring might be very chilly out there. Haven’t really dug into things yet, it’s more of a hunch. 

Probably because it's a Nina. Then again, it really hasn't behaved like a typical one, so who knows.

[AlTahoe 390]

12 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Didn't you get like 4 feet of snow last week?

That was our only "Storm" of the winter to come off of the Pacific so far. Put us at 50% of average for the date 

 

[westiztehbest 181]

January finished as 10th least snowfall going back to 18xx.  A letdown for La Niña. 

[SilverFallsAndrew 14951]

Spring of 17 and 18’ were both fairly mild after March, so not a slam dunk we see a cool spring. 

[Deweydog 14121]

32 years ago this morning we all almost DIED at the bus stop.

[luvssnow_seattle 1720]

Talking to the local here this has been one of the warmest winters in many years here. Our snowfall for January was minor overall and melted quickly (in a day in most cases) here in the Valley. I really enjoyed it, but afternoon temps have been pretty warm. My good buddy who has lived here for 15 years says this is not normal to have zero snow on the ground this time of year and temps consistently in the upper 40's... I am honestly okay with it, love the snow we have gotten, and winter is not over, yet.

[luvssnow_seattle 1720]

What is the latest discussion on the Polar Vortex split?  I am sure I am late to the party, just curious if this still look viable?

[MossMan 10611]

2 minutes ago, luvssnow_seattle said:

Talking to the local here this has been one of the warmest winters in many years here. Our snowfall for January was minor overall and melted quickly (in a day in most cases) here in the Valley. I really enjoyed it, but afternoon temps have been pretty warm. My good buddy who has lived here for 15 years says this is not normal to have zero snow on the ground this time of year and temps consistently in the upper 40's... I am honestly okay with it, love the snow we have gotten, and winter is not over, yet.

The crappy western Wa weather followed you.

[MossMan 10611]

3 minutes ago, luvssnow_seattle said:

What is the latest discussion on the Polar Vortex split?  I am sure I am late to the party, just curious if this still look viable?

Might give us a sloppy half inch the first week of April! 

[Snowdrift 413]

32 minutes ago, westiztehbest said:

January finished as 10th least snowfall going back to 18xx.  A letdown for La Niña. 

An October cold spell usually bodes well for a cold and active la niña winter. That didn't happen this year.

[TacomaWaWx 4428]

Finished January with 9.79” of rain. 0.34” so far today. 

[snow_wizard 11786]

Fairly decent improvement on the EPS snowfall projections for Seattle.  Close to 2 inches on the mean with a few really good members.

[Snowdrift 413]

4 minutes ago, luvssnow_seattle said:

What is the latest discussion on the Polar Vortex split?  I am sure I am late to the party, just curious if this still look viable?

What a dud! Recent winters haven't been very cold. 2016-17 had snowcover for roughly three months. Feb-Mar 2019 was also a cold and snowy period.

[TigerWoodsLibido 5633]

3 minutes ago, Snowdrift said:

An October cold spell usually bodes well for a cold and active la niña winter. That didn't happen this year.

[TacomaWaWx 4428]

Today’s our 3rd day in a row with a 50+ high. 50/42 spread so far. 

[SilverFallsAndrew 14951]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Gotta wonder how many times you have to be right before people will acknowledge it? 

[TigerWoodsLibido 5633]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Gotta wonder how many times you have to be right before people will acknowledge it? 

Another couple years maybe?

[snow_wizard 11786]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Today’s our 3rd day in a row with a 50+ high. 50/42 spread so far. 

We'll have to see if I can avoid it today.  48 currently with 850s starting to drop.  I might make it and keep the streak going.

[Snowdrift 413]

10 minutes ago, luvssnow_seattle said:

Talking to the local here this has been one of the warmest winters in many years here. Our snowfall for January was minor overall and melted quickly (in a day in most cases) here in the Valley. I really enjoyed it, but afternoon temps have been pretty warm. My good buddy who has lived here for 15 years says this is not normal to have zero snow on the ground this time of year and temps consistently in the upper 40's... I am honestly okay with it, love the snow we have gotten, and winter is not over, yet.

When I was a kid, we generally had snowcover from December-mid February. Highs in the 50s were unheard of in December and January. At one point, January was the coldest month. Now December is the coldest month. Spokane's climate has gotten milder in my lifetime.

[Snowdrift 413]

20 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

32 years ago this morning we all almost DIED at the bus stop.

I stepped outside, and I promptly stepped back inside. They ended up canceling school because of the extreme wind chill. I was giving the Home Alone fist pump.

[jakerepp 1069]

Me, jealous? Noooo

[Snowdrift 413]

13 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

DK says, "No bananas for you." We might be able to grow some though.

[SilverFallsAndrew 14951]

Really big 18z run coming up. 

[Snowdrift 413]

For real though, October 1984 had a wicked cold spell around Halloween. That la niña winter turned out nice. October 1949 had a decent cold spell. We all know how that winter turned out. October cold spells during el niños are like dancing to "Tango Del Muerte".

[Meatyorologist 2007]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Really big 18z run coming up. 

One way or the other... 

[Snowdrift 413]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

One way or the other... 

Monster Cold Wave into the Midwest and Northeast.

[Meatyorologist 2007]

Regardless nothing is going to show up within a week. The next potentially favorable blocking pattern begins at around hour 150.

[rsktkr 161]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

RIP Dustin Diamond.

Who? Did a member of the group pass away?

[Snowdrift 413]

Most years I don't expect much in February. I'm satisfied with very little. Regardless, I've been very happy with its performance during the last 40 years. February has had some great events.

[Phil 11798]

46 minutes ago, Snowdrift said:

An October cold spell usually bodes well for a cold and active la niña winter. That didn't happen this year.

The October thing isn’t real. The state of intraseasonal tropical forcing that favors western cold in October actually favors warmth by January thanks to seasonality of wave dynamics/number(s).

Seasonal transitions are also the most complex periods of the year in terms of the evolution of the system state, so it’s the least likely time of year for low frequency predictability to arise (that usually happens near/just after the solstices).

[Snowdrift 413]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

The October thing isn’t real. The state of tropical forcing that favors western cold in October actually favors warmth by January thanks to seasonality of wave dynamics/number(s).

Seasonal transitions are also the most complex periods of the year in terms of the evolution of the system state, so it’s the least likely time of year for low frequency predictability to arise (that usually happens near/just after the solstices).

So, in a sense, those years are noise. January 1985 had a strong inversion. We were cold despite the ridging. Oh well.

 

[MWG 202]

 NWS Medford

[TT-SEA 3764]

9 minutes ago, rsktkr said:

Who? Did a member of the group pass away?

Google it.

[SilverFallsAndrew 14951]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Google it.

No idea who the **** that is. Was it COVID related?

[Meatyorologist 2007]

[SilverFallsAndrew 14951]

Tomorrow night looks like a good snow dump on the Oregon Cascade passes.