BLI snowman Posted February 3, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 For all the talk about 1989 as analog, I think the lead time on the 1989 blast was about 4-5 days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Just now, OysterPrintout said: We're gonna shove that sucker all the way to Japan at this pace. It's going to go all the way around the planet and land right on us! Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Icon says no Still was an improvement over the 12z. 3 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 18z gets troughy at the end. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 I'm quite hopeful we will get a cold blast with some snow in the next week but I'm also cautious for another rug pull. Now that the event starts within 4 days our chances are much better than the 8 or 9 day leads we had been seeing. Anyway, model riding hasn't ever been much more entertaining. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Doesn’t seem to want to stick around for long tho Jim. I guess three days is better than nothing this winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joelgombiner Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Inside Joke Useful weather links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 29 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Here, I'll help... Stop biting ur nails. 1 1 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Icon says no Leave it to Andrew to bring the place down with model data! 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, Phil said: Stop biting ur nails. What happens when you model ride in the Northwest! 1 1 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 HUGE, HUGE, HUGE 00z runs upcoming!!!!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Leave it to Andrew to bring the place down with model data! Almost like old times! 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Nice improvements on the GFS. Just need to keep the momentum going. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, MossMan said: Almost like old times! Wait 5 minutes. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Steve Pierce is cautiously onboard. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 I think the Canadian will ultimately make us proud, boys. 1 2 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 18 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said: Doesn’t seem to want to stick around for long tho Jim. I guess three days is better than nothing this winter. Long range models have been unreliable this winter. Focus on the short term and the long range will take care of itself. There is potential, in my opinion, for this arctic blast to go on longer than modelled. Some ensemble members hint at it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, AbbyJr said: Long range models have been unreliable this winter. Focus on the short term and the long range will take care of itself. There is potential, in my opinion, for this arctic blast to go on longer than modelled. Some ensemble members hint at it. Need some snow cover here and in the columbia basin to shake things up!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Wonder if JAYA is onboard yet... 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 I predicted SLE would not have a high lower than their Christmas Eve max (33). Getting nervous!!! 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 3, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 18z NAVGEM trended further SW as well. Pretty incredible how all the models are picking up on the same thing little by little. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I predicted SLE would not have a high lower than their Christmas Eve max (33). Getting nervous!!! We had a 38/30 day here that day as well. Might not end up the coldest day of the winter after all. Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: 18z NAVGEM trended further SW as well. Pretty incredible how all the models are picking up on the same thing little by little. It also has a refill unlike the gfs. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 8 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: 18z NAVGEM trended further SW as well. Pretty incredible how all the models are picking up on the same thing little by little. What is even more crazy is the fact there were some solutions a week ago around this time frame that looked good. We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 The 18z spit out 5 consecutive highs of 37 or lower for SEA. Pretty solid stuff. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 23 minutes ago, MossMan said: Wonder if JAYA is onboard yet... I'm pretty shocked he threw in the towel so fast. He well knows about years like 1951, 1955, 1971, etc. Did he go a bit weenie on us? 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 So close to the believable range, question is.... will it get there? 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 We have the 18z EPS coming up pretty soon. No reason to think it won't be good. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I'm pretty shocked he threw in the towel so fast. He well knows about years like 1951, 1955, 1971, etc. Did he go a bit weenie on us? I have a ton of respect for the guy. One of the greats at the NWS. He was one of the original voices on the weather radio. 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: That NWWashingtonWx is usually a pretty negative voice in the weather Twittersphere when it comes to discussing upcoming possibilities. He comes across as a professional met whose been burned a few too many times by the models. Understandable really, but a bit boring in my opinion. Half of the fun is riding the models till your pants fall off. Most of the time you'll get screwed, burnt out, and pissed off but occasionally they will make a turn like this one and it makes it all worth it. Couldn't have said it better myself. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 18Z ECMWF is actually slightly west after 84 hours. 2 1 2 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulb/eugene Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 58 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said: Doesn’t seem to want to stick around for long tho Jim. I guess three days is better than nothing this winter. I'd take 1 day I'm sitting at about 3 hours here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, paulb/eugene said: This is run to run changes right not actual anomalies? 1 Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 the 18z ECMWF only runs through hour 90 and it has just slight differences through that time. The Kona low is slightly west of the 12z and the more northern part of the block is slightly more solid which is good for back digging. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulb/eugene Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: This is run to run changes right not actual anomalies? Just run to run changes. Overall the 18z is only a minor fibrillation different than 12z unlike the huge changes overnight. Perhaps the Euro is telling us not to expect much further improvement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 28 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: So close to the believable range, question is.... will it get there? This one feels different. It’s doing the opposite of a rug pull so I believe it wil get there. Not saying Arctic just but the models have been consistently trending in the right direction for this range. A good chance it’ll be chillier imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 24 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said: Just run to run changes. Overall the 18z is only a minor fibrillation different than 12z unlike the huge changes overnight. Perhaps the Euro is telling us not to expect much further improvement. I’m okay with what is currently modeled. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 If this pattern shift holds on until tomorrow morning I bet the phone apps start snowflaking it up :). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fircrest Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: If this pattern shift holds on until tomorrow morning I bet the phone apps start snowflaking it up :). KOMO already shows snow showers for Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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