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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


BLI snowman

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Just now, OysterPrintout said:

We're gonna shove that sucker all the way to Japan at this pace.

It's going to go all the way around the planet and land right on us!

Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Icon says no 

Still was an improvement over the 12z.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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18z gets troughy at the end.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I'm quite hopeful we will get a cold blast with some snow in the next week but I'm also cautious for another rug pull.  Now that the event starts within 4 days our chances are much better than the 8 or 9 day leads we had been seeing.  Anyway, model riding hasn't ever been much more entertaining.

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Leave it to Andrew to bring the place down with model data! 

Almost like old times! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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18 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Doesn’t seem to want to stick around for long tho Jim. I guess three days is better than nothing this winter. 

Long range models have been unreliable this winter. Focus on the short term and the long range will take care of itself.

There is potential, in my opinion, for this arctic blast to go on longer than modelled. Some ensemble members hint at it.

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1 minute ago, AbbyJr said:

Long range models have been unreliable this winter. Focus on the short term and the long range will take care of itself.

There is potential, in my opinion, for this arctic blast to go on longer than modelled. Some ensemble members hint at it.

Need some snow cover here and in the columbia basin to shake things up!!

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I predicted SLE would not have a high lower than their Christmas Eve max (33). Getting nervous!!!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I predicted SLE would not have a high lower than their Christmas Eve max (33). Getting nervous!!!

We had a 38/30 day here that day as well. Might not end up the coldest day of the winter after all. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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8 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

18z NAVGEM trended further SW as well. Pretty incredible how all the models are picking up on the same thing little by little.

 

What is even more crazy is the fact there were some solutions a week ago around this time frame that looked good.

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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The 18z spit out 5 consecutive highs of 37 or lower for SEA.  Pretty solid stuff.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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23 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Wonder if JAYA is onboard yet...

5A2E3D12-71C1-42CF-8FB6-3ED07CDC2FD7.jpeg

I'm pretty shocked he threw in the towel so fast.  He well knows about years like 1951, 1955, 1971, etc.  Did he go a bit weenie on us?

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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We have the 18z EPS coming up pretty soon.  No reason to think it won't be good.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm pretty shocked he threw in the towel so fast.  He well knows about years like 1951, 1955, 1971, etc.  Did he go a bit weenie on us?

I have a ton of respect for the guy. One of the greats at the NWS. He was one of the original voices on the weather radio.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

That NWWashingtonWx is usually a pretty negative voice in the weather Twittersphere when it comes to discussing upcoming possibilities. He comes across as a professional met whose been burned a few too many times by the models. Understandable really, but a bit boring in my opinion.

Half of the fun is riding the models till your pants fall off. Most of the time you'll get screwed, burnt out, and pissed off but occasionally they will make a turn like this one and it makes it all worth it.

Couldn't have said it better myself.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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the 18z ECMWF only runs through hour 90 and it has just slight differences through that time.  The Kona low is slightly west of the 12z and the more northern part of the block is slightly more solid which is good for back digging.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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28 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

So close to the believable range, question is.... will it get there?

This one feels different. It’s doing the opposite of a rug pull so I believe it wil get there. Not saying Arctic just but the models have been consistently trending in the right direction for this range. A good chance it’ll be chillier imo. 

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24 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said:

Just run to run changes.  Overall the 18z is only a minor fibrillation different than 12z unlike the huge changes overnight.  
Perhaps the Euro is telling us not to expect much further improvement.  

I’m okay with what is currently modeled. 

  • Weenie 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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