February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[OysterPrintout]

51 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Unsettling trends with the parallel GFS.

parallel GFS and trends don't belong in the same sentence 

[GHweatherChris]

1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Please let us know what you see up there on top of your high horse lol 

It does increase my elevation!

[paulb/eugene]

[Front Ranger]

4 hours ago, jakerepp said:

True! I'd much rather have it show us cold 5 days out than to see Pepto for 11 days out. 

This.

[RentonHill]

What’s the first 00z model we get? Anything faster than the GFS?

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

What’s the first 00z model we get? Anything faster than the GFS?

NAM rolls out around 6:30/12:30, then GFS at 7:30, then Euro at 9:30.

[TheNewCulverJosh]

00z GFS is going to be a thing of beauty!!!!  Hopefully Rob is on standby.

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

NAM rolls out around 6:30/12:30, then GFS at 7:30, then Euro at 9:30.

What about GEM? ICON? JMA?? I’ll take anything

[paulb/eugene]

4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

What about GEM? ICON? JMA?? I’ll take anything

Already mentioned NAM 00z improved at 78h

[paulb/eugene]

1 minute ago, paulb/eugene said:

Already mentioned NAM 00z improved at 78h

Arctic air already spilling through Purcell Trench into GEG then 

[mtep]

1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Glad to see that a sub tropical climate can get a snowstorm but not the pnw

I remember being able to count on snow pretty much every other year as a kid in Fort Worth. Definitely not true for the last 10 years, but it's been cool to see them do well this winter. It would be crazy to see mixed precip on the coast. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Fun fact. I have never used tire chains. 

[Meatyorologist]

5 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

What about GEM? ICON? JMA?? I’ll take anything

Neither of those are particularly reliable models, and I don't pay attention to them as they roll out.

Breathe.

[snow drift]

4 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said:

Arctic air already spilling through Purcell Trench into GEG then 

Good call. You know about the Purcell Trench.

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Fun fact. I have never used tire chains. 

I was born with 11 fingers.

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Neither of those are particularly reliable models, and I don't pay attention to them as they roll out.

Breathe.

[snow drift]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Fun fact. I have never used tire chains. 

Neither have I. In November 1985 my school bus got stuck on the way to school. We all thought we'd miss school, but the bus driver got out and put chains on.

[Front Ranger]

3 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

That NWWashingtonWx is usually a pretty negative voice in the weather Twittersphere when it comes to discussing upcoming possibilities. He comes across as a professional met whose been burned a few too many times by the models. Understandable really, but a bit boring in my opinion.

Half of the fun is riding the models till your pants fall off. Most of the time you'll get screwed, burnt out, and pissed off but occasionally they will make a turn like this one and it makes it all worth it.

Little different when you're a met, though.

[Front Ranger]

24 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Fun fact. I have never used tire chains. 

I have once. They suck.

Honestly, unless you really have to get somewhere and the roads are horrific, there is no reason you should ever have to use them.

[BLI snowman]

ICON is still not on board, since it was mentioned. Seems to think it's yesterday still!

[MossMan]

18 minutes ago, Snowdrift said:

Neither have I. In November 1985 my school bus got stuck on the way to school. We all thought we'd miss school, but the bus driver got out and put chains on.

My bus never came in November 1985. 

[snow drift]

18z gfs has 850s at Spokane bottoming out at -20. Thickness bottoms out at 497.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS HR 3 !

(Past 12 runs)!

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Absolutely. They are playing to a different audience than weather enthusiasts who visit a weather enthusiast forum. Automatically have to be more cautious to jump on things when you have broader public appeal. 

That being said it still lends itself to becoming a bit unnecessarily jaded to the whole model riding train and just taking the easy way out for forecasts. Yes, generally if you bet climo you will win in the PNW but where is the fun in that? Put some skin in the game, I say.

Live by the 18z, die by the 18z. 

Yeah, I get it. But at least when someone like Jaya is "onboard", you know there's a realistic chance that the sh*t gets real. 

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z GFS HR 3 !

(Past 12 runs)!

Flux capacitor 

[snow drift]

No whammies, No whammies, No whammies!

[MossMan]

I have only needed to chain up a vehicle once...After I got my first car/truck stuck against a power pole in 1993. Only way I could get it out of the ditch, minimal damage. Found out you can’t turn at normal speed on compact snow and ice. 1992/93 was a great first winter of driving, I learned a lot with a rear wheel drive El Camino! 

[Gradient Keeper]

Pivotal WAY too slow to my liking. C'MON!!!!

[snow drift]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I have only needed to chain up a vehicle once...After I got my first car/truck stuck against a power pole in 1993. Only way I could get it out of the ditch, minimal damage. Found out you can’t turn at normal speed on compact snow and ice. 1992/93 was a great first winter of driving, I learned a lot with a rear wheel drive El Camino! 

Yikes!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 1

(Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

Already a few notches to the west

[RentonHill]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

Day 1

(Past 4 runs)

Good trends!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

(Past 4 runs)

[Meatyorologist]

Not liking the angle of the ridge as much as the 18z.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

(Past 4 runs)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Concerning trends

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3.5

[Requiem]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Concerning trends

Rugpull

jk I’m sure it’ll be fine.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Concerning trends

No the cold air and trough is just slightly delayed.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Doesn’t look as good as the 18z