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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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53 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Serious question...

How many of you are considering a move in the next few years, and if you are, how big of a factor is the climate where you currently are?

Me. I’m almost certainly moving N &/or W once me and my gf finish our graduate degrees. We both hate heat/humidity so there’s a consensus on that front. Thank goodness.

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I just experienced the craziest day of my life. Normal, routine doctor's visit quickly spiraled into a seven hour stay in the ER for a MRI scan to check for malignant tumors or multiple sclerosis. Tha

Downvote this post if you want snow.

Good morning,  As you know, back in late December I decided to end my jovial "ranting" here among you soulless bastard's to focus on more personal matters.  Well despite my better judgement

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44 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Too much sunshine and too many dry days here... looking at Sitka.  👍

I predict you’ll move within the decade. Probably to Hawaii or San Diego, or maybe Phoenix.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

I predict you’ll move within the decade. Probably to Hawaii or San Diego, or maybe Phoenix.

Hawaii is calling me... maybe we will live half of the year there and half here like a couple of our neighbors.    I definitely won't be moving anywhere colder or wetter.  😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Me. I’m almost certainly moving N &/or W once me and my gf finish our graduate degrees. We both hate heat/humidity so there’s a consensus on that front. Thank goodness.

Maine sounds pretty good to me...

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14 minutes ago, weatherwonder said:

The cold is still coming ❄️🥶

The models with probably be in this back and forth tug of war flux until at least Sunday  

It going to be a quick model flip anything past 84hr is pointless at the moment 

There are no guarantees the cold is coming. I agree that the models are struggling right now, but they could also do a flip to milder solutions at the last minute. Not saying thats going to happen, but the GFS solution does not have the Euro's support right now. The Euro is said to be the most reliable model thus I have trouble being onboard without its support.

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34 minutes ago, Acer said:

This is amazing to me.  I would have guessed Portland to be of similar length to Seattles.  

SEA's record is actually 688 days, so not too different from PDX.

SEA had zero sub-40 highs in 1957-58 and 1991-92, while PDX had zero in 1966-67, 1999-00, 2002-03, and 2019-20.

2020-21 is shaping up to be the first winter where neither did it!

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1 hour ago, jakerepp said:

Serious question...

How many of you are considering a move in the next few years, and if you are, how big of a factor is the climate where you currently are?

I am thinking about moving for non-weather related reasons, but certainly weather is a HUGE factor in where I am looking to move.  It's as much about going to a snowy place as it is staying in a coastal region and in a place that does not get too hot/humid.

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14 minutes ago, Phil said:

Me. I’m almost certainly moving N &/or W once me and my gf finish our graduate degrees. We both hate heat/humidity so there’s a consensus on that front. Thank goodness.

Little humidity on Stampede but you’d stay close to home if you moved to McHenry.

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8 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Maine sounds pretty good to me...

Yeah, if there’s any work available there in our fields of research, I’ll be on it in a heartbeat. Would be a rare opportunity.

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1 hour ago, jakerepp said:

Serious question...

How many of you are considering a move in the next few years, and if you are, how big of a factor is the climate where you currently are?

Kind of was a big selling point when moving to Philly in 2015. My current line of work will take me out to NYC, DC, or even the UK. My wife is not too keen on any option that doesn’t involve living within a four mile radius of North Everett.

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9 minutes ago, luvssnow_seattle said:

I am looking forward to some chilly highs next week here in Spokane. IN OTHER NEWS - My wife and I just bought 3.5 acres up towards Colville WA. This will be the view from backyard in about a year from now. I assume next year there will be more snow as this has been a horrible year for snow in this area. Pictures taken about 5 days ago. Also, I have attached an image of the home we will be building -- Plans are drawn builder is pricing things out for us.

IMG_0358.JPG

Plan 51762HZ built in North Carolina.png

Love that porch! 

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34 minutes ago, Fircrest said:

I won't be able to retire for 10 years and want to finish with 30 years with my current employer so I can't consider moving till then. But I would move for more snow.  The problem is I don't like hot weather so that limits where I would be willing to go.  I was actually looking at coastal New Hampshire for fun a couple of days ago. I would also consider moving for political reasons if things continue like they are around here.

I am also looking at coastal NH (or Maine.)  The Californication of Washington/Oregon plays a big role in it.  Also, I got laid off from my job of 17 years, and am at the age that I need to find a place where I can settle in another 17 years to retirement, so its kind of a now or never kind of thing...

 

Also figured out this morning that flying out of Boston to see my family in Atlanta is crazy cheap, and curiously enough, it costs about the same to fly from Boston to Great Falls (to see my Mother in Law) as it does to fly from Bellingham to GF....about $300-350.  Boston-Logan is a 1 hr drive from Portsmouth NH on the NH ME border.

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Can the models make their minds up already Jesus Christ. 

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-14

Monthly rainfall-5.05”

Cold season rainfall-31.87”

Snowfall-15.5”

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Just now, Omegaraptor said:

The disagreement between GFS and ECMWF is insane for 5 days out.

Eventually one of them is going to cave. Sadly, probably the GFS.

Honestly it’s a toss up. Neither have been impressive lately. I’d say 53% chance euro wins tho. 

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-14

Monthly rainfall-5.05”

Cold season rainfall-31.87”

Snowfall-15.5”

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5 minutes ago, iFred said:

Kind of was a big selling point when moving to Philly in 2015. My current line of work will take me out to NYC, DC, or even the UK. My wife is not too keen on any option that doesn’t involve living within a four mile radius of North Everett.

Maybe we’ll get to grab that coffee after all. 👊

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3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Honestly it’s a toss up. Neither have been impressive lately. I’d say 53% chance euro wins tho. 

This kind of reminds me of last year around late March early April when the pandemic knocked out nearly all the model data from airplanes. The models were complete garbage, GFS and Euro often looked completely different 3 days out, it was crazy.

Except this time there is actually cold and snow on the line.

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22 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

trend-gfs-2021020418-f084.500h_anom_npac.gif.7c6dee2ebb6aa2ff0c62b33b51c1cdd2.gif

The 18z is the best run of the day...?

Bad as in why do they always show the goods when the 12 and 0z’s fling us back to reality

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It seems like the 18Z GFS is trying to go towards the ECMWF solution of keeping the trough up near Alaska later next week instead of absorbing into the trough over the PNW.     It looks very different than the 12Z GFS.    

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-3098800 (2).png

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-3098800 (3).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Bad as in why do they always show the goods when the 12 and 0z’s fling us back to reality

Yeah... we are in that magical 5-hour period before the 00Z runs crash all hope!  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Could the 18Z GFS be any different than the 12Z run for late next week??  😀

Ironically... its the ridgy 18Z run that delivers way more snow! 

Day 8... 18Z run on top and 12Z run on the bottom.   The 18Z run is a huge move towards the ECMWF/EPS solution.

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-3152800.png

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-3152800 (1).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Could the 18Z GFS be any different than the 12Z run for late next week??  😀

Ironically... its the ridgy 18Z run that delivers way more snow! 

Day 8... 18Z run on top and 12Z run on the bottom.   The 18Z run is a huge move towards the ECMWF/EPS solution.

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-3152800.png

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-3152800 (1).png

How do the total snow maps look?

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Actually the 12z had much more lowland snow. This is a major cave towards King Euro. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 9.8"                        2020-21: 40.47"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Actually the 12z had much more lowland snow. This is a major cave towards King Euro. 

Okay maybe for you guys in the south but for up here this run is wayyyy better

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Actually the 12z had much more lowland snow. This is a major cave towards King Euro. 

It is a major cave toward the ECMWF... but I think this run has more snow in WA due to overrunning.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, jakerepp said:

Serious question...

How many of you are considering a move in the next few years, and if you are, how big of a factor is the climate where you currently are?

I hate the lack of extremes here in Seattle's climate. Yes, there are rare instances like February 2019, 5/28/10, and 7/29/09 where we can get extreme weather, but it's a much rarer occurrence than what the rest of the country experiences.

I've floated the idea of Boston around in my head for its variability, and to be honest, if I do end up within the government at the NWS, it may not be up to me to choose where I live. It could be in Fairbanks for all I know.

Despite all this, I can not envision a scenario in which I pick up my life and place it hundreds or thousands of miles away, at least willingly and outside of a job requirement. I just can't abandon all my friends and family, all of which whom live in the PNW from Vancouver, to Eugene, to Boise, and of course Seattle and its surrounding suburbs. I have a stable, relatively happy life here, and I can always storm chase in my spare time.

Another thing that keeps me here, something is often overlooked in the discussion of our climate, is its palatability. The winters are a moody, surprisingly lively, brisk time of year with an overcast sky that has grown on me over the course of my life here. The summers are seasonable and temperate so that outdoor recreation remains comfortable year round, yet temperatures frequently warm enough to sunbathe and swim. It really is a mostly "perfect" climate.

That and the fresh air, world class tap water, nearby skiing, fresh seafood, natural scenic beauty, and mostly uncorrupt government. I'll survive not seeing as much snow.

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Now up to 7 full years since our last regionwide Arctic blast was beginning. Longest streak on record. How many more years will it last?

I was in 5th grade when it happened and now I'm graduating HS.

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Day 10... 18Z run on top and 12Z run on the bottom.    Good Lord.   😀

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-3325600 (1).png

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-3325600.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, jakerepp said:

Serious question...

How many of you are considering a move in the next few years, and if you are, how big of a factor is the climate where you currently are?

I’m pretty much locked into this region for the next few years due to education, but I’ve been considering transferring to a place like Denver.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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No snow action on the GFS for here. Onto 27-28!!!

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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