February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[Kayla]

Looks like 4-5 days of below zero temps in Bozeman with a whole bunch of snowfall over the next 3-4 days. About time winter arrived!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Kayla said:

Looks like 4-5 days of below zero temps in Bozeman with a whole bunch of snowfall over the next 3-4 days. About time winter arrived!

Better park the car in the garage next week. 

[MossMan]

Looks like the GFS found a way to get winter to us, and it also looks like Andrew found God. 
Quite the morning!! 

[jakerepp]

Just now, Kayla said:

Looks like 4-5 days of below zero temps in Bozeman with a whole bunch of snowfall over the next 3-4 days. About time winter arrived!

If I send over +5 degrees to you, can you send back -5 degrees?

[Kayla]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Better park the car in the garage next week. 

Always. Very thankful that we have a heated garage. 

[Kayla]

1 minute ago, jakerepp said:

If I send over +5 degrees to you, can you send back -5 degrees?

Deal! Below zero weather is honestly not fun. Literally can't do anything in it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice!

[MWG]

Just now, hawkstwelve said:

High of 28 for PDX next Saturday. 00z run showed a high of 40 that day.

 

Can you post for Medford? 

[GeorgeWx]

12z Ukmet day 6

[AlTahoe]

20 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Deal! Below zero weather is honestly not fun. Literally can't do anything in it.

Yeah -10F for a high is crazy. I don't think Lake Tahoe has even had a high Temperature in the teens since I have lived here. Even our really cold -18F mornings will warm up into the low 20's 

[MWG]

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

 

Thank you! By now I should just expect  nothing but freezing morning fog lol 

[Gradient Keeper]

12z ECMWF Day 1

[Chewbacca Defense]

8 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

06z rolling out... These are substantial differences for a *nine hour* forecast...

Models are a hot mess right now. The lack of airline data due to covid has been astoundingly impactful already, but now we are experiencing even more instability from the ongoing SSWE. I wouldn't put much cadence into any forecast beyond four days out, if that. Welcome to 2003.

As a "displaced" worker from the industry, I can tell you that its going to be a while before we get reliable aircraft data again.  Part of the explanation for our plant closure was that we were looking at 3-4 years for the airline industry to recover.

 

So, I guess we better get used to crappy data for a few more years.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

27 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Deal! Below zero weather is honestly not fun. Literally can't do anything in it.

I've tried explaining it to people. Even walking is hard because gloves and clothing is so stiff. simple things become a huge task!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Model trend. ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Praying for blessings on the EURO. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[Gradient Keeper]

Model trend. ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Deweydog]

https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/04/weather/polar-vortex-snow-storm-blizzard-wind-chill/index.html
 

[weatherwonder]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Praying for blessings on the EURO. 

God bless Andrew for his positive attitude today

[jakerepp]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/04/weather/polar-vortex-snow-storm-blizzard-wind-chill/index.html
 

One of the cities I always check out when it gets real cold is International Falls, MN. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, jakerepp said:

One of the cities I always check out when it gets real cold is International Falls, MN. 

I was just on a call with our marketing people who are based out of Minnesota. They said it is about D**n time it got cold. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Model trend. ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Gradient Keeper]

12z Canadian ensembles show the OP was a warm outlier, especially Gorge, Columbia Basin.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is definitely east of the 00Z run on Sunday afternoon... and well east of the 12Z run yesterday.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

[Chewbacca Defense]

This popped up on my FB feed  from today in 2019

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Game over.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Model trends. ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF is definitely east of the 00Z run on Sunday afternoon... and well east of the 12Z run yesterday.

 

This is going to be a situation that is wait and see. Going to be so close that small movements will have huge impacts.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 Euro OP not on board. Not even close

 

[Gradient Keeper]

The EPS could prove that this is a warm outlier. We shall see. Keep in mind. The EURO Day 5+ verification scores were abysmal recently around 50-55%.

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 5 Euro OP not on board. Not even close

 

Our temps still look pretty good though? even BC a noticeable bit colder?

[snow drift]

It would be nice to have some model consensus. They're all bouncing around like a bb in a tuna can.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Our temps still look pretty good though? even BC a noticeable bit colder?

Highs in the 40s from Sunday through Tuesday with almost no lowland snow... not going to be too memorable if that is correct.

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Our temps still look pretty good though? even BC a noticeable bit colder?

even Randy dropped from 27 to 21 on this frame. @MossMan

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 Great. Now I am nauseous.

[Gradient Keeper]

Model trends. ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Highs in the 40s from Sunday through Tuesday with almost no lowland snow... not going to be too memorable if that is correct.

My point was that i wasnt seeing a huge setback on this run compared to previous, but I guess we needed more than "not a huge setback" to make magic happen