February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[DJ Droppin 9300]

Day 5.5 850s Razor thin close to a prolific blast! Wow. C'MON!!!!

[Meatyorologist 2043]

Pepto. This is probably what some of the colder ensemble members looked like in previous runs.

[Meatyorologist 2043]

Snow for both Seattle and Portland on this run.

[DJ Droppin 9300]

Day 6

(Past 4 runs)

[DJ Droppin 9300]

Day 6 850s!

[DJ Droppin 9300]

Day 6.5 850s -20c Gorge!

7 AM Thursday surface temps

[DJ Droppin 9300]

Day 7

[DJ Droppin 9300]

Unreal. Even past Day 7 925s PDX, Gorge are -12c to -15c incredible low level blast

[DJ Droppin 9300]

This is flat out amazing. Now the ridge may pinch off Day 9+

[Snowdrift 413]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

This is flat out amazing. Now the ridge may pinch off Day 9+

Longevity

[wxmet 2015]

[DJ Droppin 9300]

1 minute ago, wxmet said:

That's what I thought. Wow. WOW. C'MON!!!!

[BLI snowman 6871]

This run is pretty close to ideal.

[DJ Droppin 9300]

Day 8

[Meatyorologist 2043]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

This run is pretty close to ideal.

Not really sure how you'd improve it much more, aside from making the airmass literally colder or conjuring up storms, which obviously you could say that in any situation, even 1880.

Unfortunately, the GFS will likely be an ensemble outlier. These sliding setups tend to get hung up at the border; great for Vancouverites, and occasionally Seattleites, but more rarely for Portland. It's possible, and it's happened, but with this given 500mb configuration, and the GFS's tendancy to undermodel the effective drag terrain has on the air, and therefore overmodeled surface arctic fronts, I'd claim that the 06z is a top 5% solution. Again, still a slim possibility.

[DJ Droppin 9300]

Day 9'er

[DJ Droppin 9300]

6z GEFS Ensembles are a bit colder through Day 6 in support of the Op run. The Dalles -15c, Yakima -16c. BIG time backdoor blast support.

[DJ Droppin 9300]

Seattle down to -12c!

[DJ Droppin 9300]

Did I mention snow? 10 Day Snowfall totals. This is with temps in the 20s.

[DJ Droppin 9300]

Wow Day 6+ ensemble mean still cooling Gorge, Columbia Basin.

[DJ Droppin 9300]

6z GEFS 850s peak Day 6.5 appears they slowly begin the moderation at that point.

[DJ Droppin 9300]

Serious arctic blast

6z GEFS surface temps through Day 6.5

Portland

Seattle

The Dalles

[DJ Droppin 9300]

Wow....... I'm really encouraged by this, but I won't buy in until 12z EURO shows similarly. 12z EURO in 6 hours 42 minutes

[DJ Droppin 9300]

Looking a bit more closely at the 500mb pattern we were a hair away from 850s to turn even colder -15c to -18c for Seattle, Portland. We just needed the PV lobe over southern BC to dig south another few notches. Incredible.

[TigerWoodsLibido 5753]

We’ll get ‘em next time

[RentonHillTC 582]

Wow almost a 2c drop in ensemble mean for feb 9 vs the 00z

[DJ Droppin 9300]

Okay. I need sleep. Be back for 12z! C'MON!!!!

[Kayla 3643]

This is getting silly. Nearing all-time 1936 cold levels...

 

[Front Ranger 7635]

One thing looks certain: going to be an insane stretch of cold coming up for the north/central part of the country. MT, ND, SD, MN, etc could put up some absurd weekly anomalies.

[Cloud 1523]

GFS’s 6z and 18z are obviously having a tug of war with their counterparts 0z and 12z. The implication is that we’re caught in the middle of their war. 

[SilverFallsAndrew 15335]

4 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

We’ll get ‘em next time

Yep, nothing for people south of PDX to be concerned about.

Though somehow EUG makes it to the low to mid 20s by the next morning. 

[jakerepp 1087]

[SilverFallsAndrew 15335]

Interesting few days we have coming up. 

[SilverFallsAndrew 15335]

5 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Don't worry, Tim will be up soon to give us all a reality check. 

[Skagit Weather 657]

I really think we need to make a graph for the extreme bipolar mood on here over time. It's like every six hours we go from the highest highs to the lowest lows. Almost as if we had our entire life savings invested in the outcome of every March Madness game, but on every other game we bet on the upset.

[SilverFallsAndrew 15335]

Eastward shift on the 12z NAM

[TT-SEA 4169]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Don't worry, Tim will be up soon to give us all a reality check. 

We will soon see what the 12Z GFS says.   Contrary to popular belief... I don't control the models or the weather.  

[MossMan 10732]

Currently heavy rain and 43.

.88” so far on the day. 3.55” for the month, 11.27” for the year. 
The PNA looked kind of crappy. 
 

GO 6z and the NAM!!!!

[jakerepp 1087]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We will soon see what the 12Z GFS says.   Contrary to popular belief... I don't control the models or the weather.  

I want my money back then. 

[Skagit Weather 657]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Currently heavy rain and 43.

.88” so far on the day. 3.55” for the month, 11.27” for the year. 
The PNA looked kind of crappy. 
 

GO 6z and the NAM!!!!

Wow! I was almost keeping pace with you until this morning. Only 0.08" so far today with 2.20" so far on the month.

[SilverFallsAndrew 15335]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We will soon see what the 12Z GFS says.   Contrary to popular belief... I don't control the models or the weather.  

Yeah no doubt the 12z will be a bucket of cold water to wake us up this morning. 

[JBolin 1110]

Good morning, 

As you know, back in late December I decided to end my jovial "ranting" here among you soulless bastard's to focus on more personal matters. 

Well despite my better judgement I have chosen to share some major life news with you all, my gf has accepted an amazing offer from her employer that requires relocation. As such the offer comes with all expenses paid relocation overseas. 

As of August 3rd of this year, her and I will be living full time in Tampere, Finland, not only will this be a massive change but also a welcome change as she is originally from Finland and still has family there as well as in Sweden and Norway. 

I'm still a bit shell-shocked about the whole thing but then I realized, I'll get to see the Aurora Borealis, I'll get snow and not have to worry about the models waffling, I'll see so many things that many of us want or hope to see (in a lifetime) and how lucky we'll both be to experience that. 

The immersion into a culture I'm not familiar with will be a hard task to endure but the "rewards" will far outweigh any hiccups or missteps I may have. 

So for the time being, I may continue to lurk among you and may periodically post. 

Take it easy you goons.

[SilverFallsAndrew 15335]

5 minutes ago, JBolin said:

Good morning, 

As you know, back in late December I decided to end my jovial "ranting" here among you soulless bastard's to focus on more personal matters. 

Well despite my better judgement I have chosen to share some major life news with you all, my gf has accepted an amazing offer from her employer that requires relocation. As such the offer comes with all expenses paid relocation overseas. 

As of August 3rd of this year, her and I will be living full time in Tampere, Finland, not only will this be a massive change but also a welcome change as she is originally from Finland and still has family there as well as in Sweden and Norway. 

I'm still a bit shell-shocked about the whole thing but then I realized, I'll get to see the Aurora Borealis, I'll get snow and not have to worry about the models waffling, I'll see so many things that many of us want or hope to see (in a lifetime) and how lucky we'll both be to experience that. 

The immersion into a culture I'm not familiar with will be a hard task to endure but the "rewards" will far outweigh any hiccups or missteps I may have. 

So for the time being, I may continue to lurk among you and may periodically post. 

Take it easy you goons.

That is pretty D**n amazing! Congrats to  you guys, what an adventure!

[DJ Droppin 9300]

12z GFS Day 1

(Past 4 runs)

[TT-SEA 4169]

9 minutes ago, JBolin said:

Good morning, 

As you know, back in late December I decided to end my jovial "ranting" here among you soulless bastard's to focus on more personal matters. 

Well despite my better judgement I have chosen to share some major life news with you all, my gf has accepted an amazing offer from her employer that requires relocation. As such the offer comes with all expenses paid relocation overseas. 

As of August 3rd of this year, her and I will be living full time in Tampere, Finland, not only will this be a massive change but also a welcome change as she is originally from Finland and still has family there as well as in Sweden and Norway. 

I'm still a bit shell-shocked about the whole thing but then I realized, I'll get to see the Aurora Borealis, I'll get snow and not have to worry about the models waffling, I'll see so many things that many of us want or hope to see (in a lifetime) and how lucky we'll both be to experience that. 

The immersion into a culture I'm not familiar with will be a hard task to endure but the "rewards" will far outweigh any hiccups or missteps I may have. 

So for the time being, I may continue to lurk among you and may periodically post. 

Take it easy you goons.

Nice!   Good luck on the big transition! 

[DJ Droppin 9300]

Day 2

(Past 4 runs)

[DJ Droppin 9300]

12 minutes ago, JBolin said:

Good morning, 

As you know, back in late December I decided to end my jovial "ranting" here among you soulless bastard's to focus on more personal matters. 

Well despite my better judgement I have chosen to share some major life news with you all, my gf has accepted an amazing offer from her employer that requires relocation. As such the offer comes with all expenses paid relocation overseas. 

As of August 3rd of this year, her and I will be living full time in Tampere, Finland, not only will this be a massive change but also a welcome change as she is originally from Finland and still has family there as well as in Sweden and Norway. 

I'm still a bit shell-shocked about the whole thing but then I realized, I'll get to see the Aurora Borealis, I'll get snow and not have to worry about the models waffling, I'll see so many things that many of us want or hope to see (in a lifetime) and how lucky we'll both be to experience that. 

The immersion into a culture I'm not familiar with will be a hard task to endure but the "rewards" will far outweigh any hiccups or missteps I may have. 

So for the time being, I may continue to lurk among you and may periodically post. 

Take it easy you goons.

Wow. That will be some change! That's exciting.

[DJ Droppin 9300]

Day 3

(Past 4 runs) Not good so far at all.

[DJ Droppin 9300]

Seriously if this falls apart now, IF it does.... I'm taking a vacation from model riding.

[jakerepp 1087]

12 minutes ago, JBolin said:

Good morning, 

As you know, back in late December I decided to end my jovial "ranting" here among you soulless bastard's to focus on more personal matters. 

Well despite my better judgement I have chosen to share some major life news with you all, my gf has accepted an amazing offer from her employer that requires relocation. As such the offer comes with all expenses paid relocation overseas. 

As of August 3rd of this year, her and I will be living full time in Tampere, Finland, not only will this be a massive change but also a welcome change as she is originally from Finland and still has family there as well as in Sweden and Norway. 

I'm still a bit shell-shocked about the whole thing but then I realized, I'll get to see the Aurora Borealis, I'll get snow and not have to worry about the models waffling, I'll see so many things that many of us want or hope to see (in a lifetime) and how lucky we'll both be to experience that. 

The immersion into a culture I'm not familiar with will be a hard task to endure but the "rewards" will far outweigh any hiccups or missteps I may have. 

So for the time being, I may continue to lurk among you and may periodically post. 

Take it easy you goons.

Woah! 

Best of luck to you, and enjoy some real winter weather!