DJ Droppin 9300 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Day 5.5 850s Razor thin close to a prolific blast! Wow. C'MON!!!! 4 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Meatyorologist 2043 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Pepto. This is probably what some of the colder ensemble members looked like in previous runs. 2 Link to post Share on other sites
Meatyorologist 2043 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Snow for both Seattle and Portland on this run. 3 Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9300 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Day 6 (Past 4 runs) Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9300 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Day 6 850s! 3 1 Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9300 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Day 6.5 850s -20c Gorge! 7 AM Thursday surface temps 4 1 Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9300 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Day 7 Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9300 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Unreal. Even past Day 7 925s PDX, Gorge are -12c to -15c incredible low level blast 1 Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9300 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 This is flat out amazing. Now the ridge may pinch off Day 9+ Link to post Share on other sites
Snowdrift 413 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Just now, DJ Droppin said: This is flat out amazing. Now the ridge may pinch off Day 9+ Longevity Link to post Share on other sites
Meteorologist wxmet 2015 Posted February 5 Meteorologist Report Share Posted February 5 5 1 Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9300 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, wxmet said: That's what I thought. Wow. WOW. C'MON!!!! Link to post Share on other sites
BLI snowman 6871 Posted February 5 Author Report Share Posted February 5 This run is pretty close to ideal. 2 1 Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9300 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Day 8 Link to post Share on other sites
Meatyorologist 2043 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, BLI snowman said: This run is pretty close to ideal. Not really sure how you'd improve it much more, aside from making the airmass literally colder or conjuring up storms, which obviously you could say that in any situation, even 1880. Unfortunately, the GFS will likely be an ensemble outlier. These sliding setups tend to get hung up at the border; great for Vancouverites, and occasionally Seattleites, but more rarely for Portland. It's possible, and it's happened, but with this given 500mb configuration, and the GFS's tendancy to undermodel the effective drag terrain has on the air, and therefore overmodeled surface arctic fronts, I'd claim that the 06z is a top 5% solution. Again, still a slim possibility. 3 Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9300 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Day 9'er Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9300 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 6z GEFS Ensembles are a bit colder through Day 6 in support of the Op run. The Dalles -15c, Yakima -16c. BIG time backdoor blast support. Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9300 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Seattle down to -12c! Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9300 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Did I mention snow? 10 Day Snowfall totals. This is with temps in the 20s. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9300 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Wow Day 6+ ensemble mean still cooling Gorge, Columbia Basin. Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9300 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 6z GEFS 850s peak Day 6.5 appears they slowly begin the moderation at that point. Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9300 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Serious arctic blast 6z GEFS surface temps through Day 6.5 Portland Seattle The Dalles 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9300 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Wow....... I'm really encouraged by this, but I won't buy in until 12z EURO shows similarly. 12z EURO in 6 hours 42 minutes 4 Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9300 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Looking a bit more closely at the 500mb pattern we were a hair away from 850s to turn even colder -15c to -18c for Seattle, Portland. We just needed the PV lobe over southern BC to dig south another few notches. Incredible. Link to post Share on other sites
TigerWoodsLibido 5753 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 We’ll get ‘em next time 1 1 1 2 Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats: Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21) Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26) Days with below freezing temps: 47 (Most recent: Apr 9, 2021) Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24) Total snowfall: 0.0" Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7" Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @357jerseys4hope 24 Link to post Share on other sites
RentonHillTC 582 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Wow almost a 2c drop in ensemble mean for feb 9 vs the 00z 2 Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9300 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Okay. I need sleep. Be back for 12z! C'MON!!!! 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Kayla 3643 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 This is getting silly. Nearing all-time 1936 cold levels... 4 1 1 Cold Season 2020/21: Total snowfall: 86.0" Highest daily snowfall: 12.0" Highest snow depth: 18.0" Coldest high: -7.0º Coldest low: -17.1º Number of subzero days: 7 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to post Share on other sites
Front Ranger 7635 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 One thing looks certain: going to be an insane stretch of cold coming up for the north/central part of the country. MT, ND, SD, MN, etc could put up some absurd weekly anomalies. 1 Low. Solar. Link to post Share on other sites
Cloud 1523 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 GFS’s 6z and 18z are obviously having a tug of war with their counterparts 0z and 12z. The implication is that we’re caught in the middle of their war. Link to post Share on other sites
SilverFallsAndrew 15335 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 4 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: We’ll get ‘em next time Yep, nothing for people south of PDX to be concerned about. Though somehow EUG makes it to the low to mid 20s by the next morning. Snowfall Precip 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 52.02" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Link to post Share on other sites
SilverFallsAndrew 15335 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Interesting few days we have coming up. Snowfall Precip 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 52.02" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Link to post Share on other sites
SilverFallsAndrew 15335 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 5 minutes ago, jakerepp said: Don't worry, Tim will be up soon to give us all a reality check. 1 Snowfall Precip 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 52.02" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Link to post Share on other sites
Skagit Weather 657 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 I really think we need to make a graph for the extreme bipolar mood on here over time. It's like every six hours we go from the highest highs to the lowest lows. Almost as if we had our entire life savings invested in the outcome of every March Madness game, but on every other game we bet on the upset. 3 1 1 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 6.9" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 2020-21: 10.5" (2/10: Tr, 2/12: 0.5" , 2/13: 8.5", 2/14: 1.5") Link to post Share on other sites
SilverFallsAndrew 15335 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Eastward shift on the 12z NAM Snowfall Precip 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 52.02" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Link to post Share on other sites
TT-SEA 4169 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Don't worry, Tim will be up soon to give us all a reality check. We will soon see what the 12Z GFS says. Contrary to popular belief... I don't control the models or the weather. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to post Share on other sites
MossMan 10732 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Currently heavy rain and 43. .88” so far on the day. 3.55” for the month, 11.27” for the year. The PNA looked kind of crappy. GO 6z and the NAM!!!! Link to post Share on other sites
jakerepp 1087 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: We will soon see what the 12Z GFS says. Contrary to popular belief... I don't control the models or the weather. I want my money back then. Link to post Share on other sites
Skagit Weather 657 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 2 minutes ago, MossMan said: Currently heavy rain and 43. .88” so far on the day. 3.55” for the month, 11.27” for the year. The PNA looked kind of crappy. GO 6z and the NAM!!!! Wow! I was almost keeping pace with you until this morning. Only 0.08" so far today with 2.20" so far on the month. 1 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 6.9" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 2020-21: 10.5" (2/10: Tr, 2/12: 0.5" , 2/13: 8.5", 2/14: 1.5") Link to post Share on other sites
SilverFallsAndrew 15335 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: We will soon see what the 12Z GFS says. Contrary to popular belief... I don't control the models or the weather. Yeah no doubt the 12z will be a bucket of cold water to wake us up this morning. 1 1 Snowfall Precip 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 52.02" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Link to post Share on other sites
Popular Post JBolin 1110 Posted February 5 Popular Post Report Share Posted February 5 Good morning, As you know, back in late December I decided to end my jovial "ranting" here among you soulless bastard's to focus on more personal matters. Well despite my better judgement I have chosen to share some major life news with you all, my gf has accepted an amazing offer from her employer that requires relocation. As such the offer comes with all expenses paid relocation overseas. As of August 3rd of this year, her and I will be living full time in Tampere, Finland, not only will this be a massive change but also a welcome change as she is originally from Finland and still has family there as well as in Sweden and Norway. I'm still a bit shell-shocked about the whole thing but then I realized, I'll get to see the Aurora Borealis, I'll get snow and not have to worry about the models waffling, I'll see so many things that many of us want or hope to see (in a lifetime) and how lucky we'll both be to experience that. The immersion into a culture I'm not familiar with will be a hard task to endure but the "rewards" will far outweigh any hiccups or missteps I may have. So for the time being, I may continue to lurk among you and may periodically post. Take it easy you goons. 16 5 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites
SilverFallsAndrew 15335 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 5 minutes ago, JBolin said: Good morning, As you know, back in late December I decided to end my jovial "ranting" here among you soulless bastard's to focus on more personal matters. Well despite my better judgement I have chosen to share some major life news with you all, my gf has accepted an amazing offer from her employer that requires relocation. As such the offer comes with all expenses paid relocation overseas. As of August 3rd of this year, her and I will be living full time in Tampere, Finland, not only will this be a massive change but also a welcome change as she is originally from Finland and still has family there as well as in Sweden and Norway. I'm still a bit shell-shocked about the whole thing but then I realized, I'll get to see the Aurora Borealis, I'll get snow and not have to worry about the models waffling, I'll see so many things that many of us want or hope to see (in a lifetime) and how lucky we'll both be to experience that. The immersion into a culture I'm not familiar with will be a hard task to endure but the "rewards" will far outweigh any hiccups or missteps I may have. So for the time being, I may continue to lurk among you and may periodically post. Take it easy you goons. That is pretty D**n amazing! Congrats to you guys, what an adventure! 1 Snowfall Precip 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 52.02" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9300 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 12z GFS Day 1 (Past 4 runs) Link to post Share on other sites
TT-SEA 4169 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 9 minutes ago, JBolin said: Good morning, As you know, back in late December I decided to end my jovial "ranting" here among you soulless bastard's to focus on more personal matters. Well despite my better judgement I have chosen to share some major life news with you all, my gf has accepted an amazing offer from her employer that requires relocation. As such the offer comes with all expenses paid relocation overseas. As of August 3rd of this year, her and I will be living full time in Tampere, Finland, not only will this be a massive change but also a welcome change as she is originally from Finland and still has family there as well as in Sweden and Norway. I'm still a bit shell-shocked about the whole thing but then I realized, I'll get to see the Aurora Borealis, I'll get snow and not have to worry about the models waffling, I'll see so many things that many of us want or hope to see (in a lifetime) and how lucky we'll both be to experience that. The immersion into a culture I'm not familiar with will be a hard task to endure but the "rewards" will far outweigh any hiccups or missteps I may have. So for the time being, I may continue to lurk among you and may periodically post. Take it easy you goons. Nice! Good luck on the big transition! 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9300 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Day 2 (Past 4 runs) Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9300 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 12 minutes ago, JBolin said: Good morning, As you know, back in late December I decided to end my jovial "ranting" here among you soulless bastard's to focus on more personal matters. Well despite my better judgement I have chosen to share some major life news with you all, my gf has accepted an amazing offer from her employer that requires relocation. As such the offer comes with all expenses paid relocation overseas. As of August 3rd of this year, her and I will be living full time in Tampere, Finland, not only will this be a massive change but also a welcome change as she is originally from Finland and still has family there as well as in Sweden and Norway. I'm still a bit shell-shocked about the whole thing but then I realized, I'll get to see the Aurora Borealis, I'll get snow and not have to worry about the models waffling, I'll see so many things that many of us want or hope to see (in a lifetime) and how lucky we'll both be to experience that. The immersion into a culture I'm not familiar with will be a hard task to endure but the "rewards" will far outweigh any hiccups or missteps I may have. So for the time being, I may continue to lurk among you and may periodically post. Take it easy you goons. Wow. That will be some change! That's exciting. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9300 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Day 3 (Past 4 runs) Not good so far at all. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9300 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Seriously if this falls apart now, IF it does.... I'm taking a vacation from model riding. 2 Link to post Share on other sites
jakerepp 1087 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 12 minutes ago, JBolin said: Good morning, As you know, back in late December I decided to end my jovial "ranting" here among you soulless bastard's to focus on more personal matters. Well despite my better judgement I have chosen to share some major life news with you all, my gf has accepted an amazing offer from her employer that requires relocation. As such the offer comes with all expenses paid relocation overseas. As of August 3rd of this year, her and I will be living full time in Tampere, Finland, not only will this be a massive change but also a welcome change as she is originally from Finland and still has family there as well as in Sweden and Norway. I'm still a bit shell-shocked about the whole thing but then I realized, I'll get to see the Aurora Borealis, I'll get snow and not have to worry about the models waffling, I'll see so many things that many of us want or hope to see (in a lifetime) and how lucky we'll both be to experience that. The immersion into a culture I'm not familiar with will be a hard task to endure but the "rewards" will far outweigh any hiccups or missteps I may have. So for the time being, I may continue to lurk among you and may periodically post. Take it easy you goons. Woah! Best of luck to you, and enjoy some real winter weather! 1 Link to post Share on other sites
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