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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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I just experienced the craziest day of my life. Normal, routine doctor's visit quickly spiraled into a seven hour stay in the ER for a MRI scan to check for malignant tumors or multiple sclerosis. Tha

Downvote this post if you want snow.

Good morning,  As you know, back in late December I decided to end my jovial "ranting" here among you soulless bastard's to focus on more personal matters.  Well despite my better judgement

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

This run is pretty close to ideal.

Not really sure how you'd improve it much more, aside from making the airmass literally colder or conjuring up storms, which obviously you could say that in any situation, even 1880.

Unfortunately, the GFS will likely be an ensemble outlier. These sliding setups tend to get hung up at the border; great for Vancouverites, and occasionally Seattleites, but more rarely for Portland. It's possible, and it's happened, but with this given 500mb configuration, and the GFS's tendancy to undermodel the effective drag terrain has on the air, and therefore overmodeled surface arctic fronts, I'd claim that the 06z is a top 5% solution. Again, still a slim possibility.

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Looking a bit more closely at the 500mb pattern we were a hair away from 850s to turn even colder -15c to -18c for Seattle, Portland. We just needed the PV lobe over southern BC to dig south another few notches. Incredible.

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We’ll get ‘em next time

7743ECAF-952C-40F3-86C1-883CE7A9E2A9.png

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 47 (Most recent: Apr 9, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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This is getting silly. Nearing all-time 1936 cold levels...

28892071_ScreenShot2021-02-05at1_44_16PM.thumb.png.93cdb0b5cbc84146449079f99da2eb64.png

 

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Cold Season 2020/21:

Total snowfall: 86.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 12.0"

Highest snow depth: 18.0"

Coldest high: -7.0º

Coldest low: -17.1º

Number of subzero days: 7

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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GFS’s 6z and 18z are obviously having a tug of war with their counterparts 0z and 12z. The implication is that we’re caught in the middle of their war. 

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4 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

We’ll get ‘em next time

7743ECAF-952C-40F3-86C1-883CE7A9E2A9.png

Yep, nothing for people south of PDX to be concerned about. ;)

Though somehow EUG makes it to the low to mid 20s by the next morning. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Interesting few days we have coming up. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

4wtv67.jpg

Don't worry, Tim will be up soon to give us all a reality check. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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I really think we need to make a graph for the extreme bipolar mood on here over time. It's like every six hours we go from the highest highs to the lowest lows. Almost as if we had our entire life savings invested in the outcome of every March Madness game, but on every other game we bet on the upset.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 6.9"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 

2020-21: 10.5" (2/10: Tr, 2/12: 0.5" , 2/13: 8.5", 2/14: 1.5")

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Eastward shift on the 12z NAM

nam_z500a_namer_29.png

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Don't worry, Tim will be up soon to give us all a reality check. 

We will soon see what the 12Z GFS says.   Contrary to popular belief... I don't control the models or the weather.  ;)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Currently heavy rain and 43.

.88” so far on the day. 3.55” for the month, 11.27” for the year. 
The PNA looked kind of crappy. 
 

GO 6z and the NAM!!!!

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We will soon see what the 12Z GFS says.   Contrary to popular belief... I don't control the models or the weather.  ;)

I want my money back then. 

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2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Currently heavy rain and 43.

.88” so far on the day. 3.55” for the month, 11.27” for the year. 
The PNA looked kind of crappy. 
 

GO 6z and the NAM!!!!

Wow! I was almost keeping pace with you until this morning. Only 0.08" so far today with 2.20" so far on the month.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 6.9"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 

2020-21: 10.5" (2/10: Tr, 2/12: 0.5" , 2/13: 8.5", 2/14: 1.5")

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We will soon see what the 12Z GFS says.   Contrary to popular belief... I don't control the models or the weather.  ;)

Yeah no doubt the 12z will be a bucket of cold water to wake us up this morning. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 minutes ago, JBolin said:

Good morning, 

As you know, back in late December I decided to end my jovial "ranting" here among you soulless bastard's to focus on more personal matters. 

Well despite my better judgement I have chosen to share some major life news with you all, my gf has accepted an amazing offer from her employer that requires relocation. As such the offer comes with all expenses paid relocation overseas. 

As of August 3rd of this year, her and I will be living full time in Tampere, Finland, not only will this be a massive change but also a welcome change as she is originally from Finland and still has family there as well as in Sweden and Norway. 

I'm still a bit shell-shocked about the whole thing but then I realized, I'll get to see the Aurora Borealis, I'll get snow and not have to worry about the models waffling, I'll see so many things that many of us want or hope to see (in a lifetime) and how lucky we'll both be to experience that. 

The immersion into a culture I'm not familiar with will be a hard task to endure but the "rewards" will far outweigh any hiccups or missteps I may have. 

So for the time being, I may continue to lurk among you and may periodically post. 

Take it easy you goons.

That is pretty D**n amazing! Congrats to  you guys, what an adventure!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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9 minutes ago, JBolin said:

Good morning, 

As you know, back in late December I decided to end my jovial "ranting" here among you soulless bastard's to focus on more personal matters. 

Well despite my better judgement I have chosen to share some major life news with you all, my gf has accepted an amazing offer from her employer that requires relocation. As such the offer comes with all expenses paid relocation overseas. 

As of August 3rd of this year, her and I will be living full time in Tampere, Finland, not only will this be a massive change but also a welcome change as she is originally from Finland and still has family there as well as in Sweden and Norway. 

I'm still a bit shell-shocked about the whole thing but then I realized, I'll get to see the Aurora Borealis, I'll get snow and not have to worry about the models waffling, I'll see so many things that many of us want or hope to see (in a lifetime) and how lucky we'll both be to experience that. 

The immersion into a culture I'm not familiar with will be a hard task to endure but the "rewards" will far outweigh any hiccups or missteps I may have. 

So for the time being, I may continue to lurk among you and may periodically post. 

Take it easy you goons.

Nice!   Good luck on the big transition! 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12 minutes ago, JBolin said:

Good morning, 

As you know, back in late December I decided to end my jovial "ranting" here among you soulless bastard's to focus on more personal matters. 

Well despite my better judgement I have chosen to share some major life news with you all, my gf has accepted an amazing offer from her employer that requires relocation. As such the offer comes with all expenses paid relocation overseas. 

As of August 3rd of this year, her and I will be living full time in Tampere, Finland, not only will this be a massive change but also a welcome change as she is originally from Finland and still has family there as well as in Sweden and Norway. 

I'm still a bit shell-shocked about the whole thing but then I realized, I'll get to see the Aurora Borealis, I'll get snow and not have to worry about the models waffling, I'll see so many things that many of us want or hope to see (in a lifetime) and how lucky we'll both be to experience that. 

The immersion into a culture I'm not familiar with will be a hard task to endure but the "rewards" will far outweigh any hiccups or missteps I may have. 

So for the time being, I may continue to lurk among you and may periodically post. 

Take it easy you goons.

Wow. That will be some change! That's exciting.

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12 minutes ago, JBolin said:

Good morning, 

As you know, back in late December I decided to end my jovial "ranting" here among you soulless bastard's to focus on more personal matters. 

Well despite my better judgement I have chosen to share some major life news with you all, my gf has accepted an amazing offer from her employer that requires relocation. As such the offer comes with all expenses paid relocation overseas. 

As of August 3rd of this year, her and I will be living full time in Tampere, Finland, not only will this be a massive change but also a welcome change as she is originally from Finland and still has family there as well as in Sweden and Norway. 

I'm still a bit shell-shocked about the whole thing but then I realized, I'll get to see the Aurora Borealis, I'll get snow and not have to worry about the models waffling, I'll see so many things that many of us want or hope to see (in a lifetime) and how lucky we'll both be to experience that. 

The immersion into a culture I'm not familiar with will be a hard task to endure but the "rewards" will far outweigh any hiccups or missteps I may have. 

So for the time being, I may continue to lurk among you and may periodically post. 

Take it easy you goons.

Woah! 

Best of luck to you, and enjoy some real winter weather!

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