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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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This run is slightly warmer so far. Seems fairly similar though. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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I just experienced the craziest day of my life. Normal, routine doctor's visit quickly spiraled into a seven hour stay in the ER for a MRI scan to check for malignant tumors or multiple sclerosis. Tha

Downvote this post if you want snow.

Good morning,  As you know, back in late December I decided to end my jovial "ranting" here among you soulless bastard's to focus on more personal matters.  Well despite my better judgement

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At hour 90 you can tell the cold air is shunting further east than the 06z. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Pretty significant eastward shift. 

06z

gfs_T850a_nwus_18.png

12z

gfs_T850a_nwus_17.png

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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22 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Seriously if this falls apart now, IF it does.... I'm taking a vacation from model riding.

It’s pretty difficult  to call this “falling apart” when models have been all over the place for the last week. It’s not like a full on arctic blast has ever been the most consistent model outcome for us. 

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1 minute ago, FroYoBro said:

It’s pretty difficult  to call this “falling apart” when models have been all over the place for the last week. It’s not like a full on arctic blast has ever been the most consistent mode outcome for us. 

The models have been more manic than me!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Interesting how the UHI of PDX shows up on this map. 

gfs_T2ma_nwus_21.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, JBolin said:

Perhaps you're not "blessed" enough?

I am definitely NOT blessed. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Still looks chilly during the work week. Probably looking at highs 40-45 in the metro area with lows 25-35 depending on winds. Highs around 45 in the valley lows 20-25. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Remember the GFS often greatly overdoes it with low level CAA. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Starting to be more confident in that this won't be a bitterly cold backdoor arctic blast with 850s at -15c like some runs have showed, but still a decently chilly backdoor blast with 850s peaking around -8/-10c and highs around 40. If precip comes in at the right time or the right strength, I could see some lowland snow developing especially in the AM/PM next week. That's still up in the air, of course.

12z GFS spits out a high of 30 for Seattle on Wednesday, so there is a chance this could improve further down the home stretch but I'd say the above is generally a good outline.

Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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Rod Hill definitely is warmer Tues, Wed, and Thurs at pretty much 45 each day.  Nelsen has 42, 42, and 40.  Lows were comparable in the upper 20's.  More times than not Rod has done a better job with these kinds of temp profiles in margnal events.  Nelsen is hands above better in overall weather forecasting.  We'll see who leads the way here.  It doesn't seem like much but that's a 3 degree spread and in marginal possible snow set ups, one degree is crucial. 

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Snow per the 12Z GFS... some c-zone snow at times early next week.

snodpc_acc.us_nw (7).png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Prairiedog said:

Rod Hill definitely is warmer Tues, Wed, and Thurs at pretty much 45 each day.  Nelsen has 42, 42, and 40.  Lows were comparable in the upper 20's.  More times than not Rod has done a better job with these kinds of temp profiles in margnal events.  Nelsen is hands above better in overall weather forecasting.  We'll see who leads the way here.  It doesn't seem like much but that's a 3 degree spread and in marginal possible snow set ups, one degree is crucial. 

Rod hill has really been drinking heavy again. Poor little fellow.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Starting to be more confident in that this won't be a bitterly cold backdoor arctic blast with 850s at -15c like some runs have showed, but still a decently chilly backdoor blast with 850s peaking around -8/-10c and highs around 40. If precip comes in at the right time or the right strength, I could see some lowland snow developing especially in the AM/PM next week. That's still up in the air, of course.

12z GFS spits out a high of 30 for Seattle on Wednesday, so there is a chance this could improve further down the home stretch but I'd say the above is generally a good outline.

The GFS is so goofy with its temp output.   It's like it assumes that Seattle is the same as Spokane in terms of geography. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The GFS is so goofy with its temp output.   It's like it assumes that Seattle is the same as Spokane in terms of geography. 

Terrain always getting in the way of s***

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1 hour ago, Skagit Weather said:

I really think we need to make a graph for the extreme bipolar mood on here over time. It's like every six hours we go from the highest highs to the lowest lows. Almost as if we had our entire life savings invested in the outcome of every March Madness game, but on every other game we bet on the upset.

It’s wild, man. The last time I saw mood swings of similar amplitude on a wx forum was Boxing Day 2010.

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52 minutes ago, JBolin said:

Good morning, 

As you know, back in late December I decided to end my jovial "ranting" here among you soulless bastard's to focus on more personal matters. 

Well despite my better judgement I have chosen to share some major life news with you all, my gf has accepted an amazing offer from her employer that requires relocation. As such the offer comes with all expenses paid relocation overseas. 

As of August 3rd of this year, her and I will be living full time in Tampere, Finland, not only will this be a massive change but also a welcome change as she is originally from Finland and still has family there as well as in Sweden and Norway. 

I'm still a bit shell-shocked about the whole thing but then I realized, I'll get to see the Aurora Borealis, I'll get snow and not have to worry about the models waffling, I'll see so many things that many of us want or hope to see (in a lifetime) and how lucky we'll both be to experience that. 

The immersion into a culture I'm not familiar with will be a hard task to endure but the "rewards" will far outweigh any hiccups or missteps I may have. 

So for the time being, I may continue to lurk among you and may periodically post. 

Take it easy you goons.

Way to go brotha! Nice to hear from u again. 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

We will soon see what the 12Z GFS says.   Contrary to popular belief... I don't control the models or the weather.  ;)

Only because I stole your weather manipulation device.

Prepare for a cold summer! Muahahaha.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Only because I stole your weather manipulation device.

Prepare for a cold summer! Muahahaha.

I expect nothing less!

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12Z GEM is looking much more back-doorish than its 00Z run.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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This winter has been crazy. We had one storm on Nov 8th and our second storm on Jan 27th. It looks like nothing again till maybe the end of Feb or early March. We not even seeing clouds, just endless days of blue sky's and above normal temps. Unless we get a Miracle March or big April there is a very real chance that 2019-2021 will be one of the three driest two year period's in California since 1975-1977, and 2013-2015. Maybe we will see another great Pacific climate shift after this winter like in 1975-1977? 

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Is there a market or something where we can place our orders?

I would like 2" of snow following by a high in the low to mid 30s. Anything after that is bonus.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 6.9"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 

2020-21: 10.5" (2/10: Tr, 2/12: 0.5" , 2/13: 8.5", 2/14: 1.5")

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So....the GEM blinks on this run!  One of the big problems I've had with the recent GEM and ECMWF runs progressing the pattern so quickly is there is really nothing to drive.  We have a new Kona low forming at the time the bottom the block was being forecast to just magically move inland.  That sideways trough across southern Canada is another thing to stop that progression.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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I have to admit, even though I will not be getting much snow over here in Spokane, I can not even remember if I have ever seen or experienced 850's that cold. I love my move to Spokane for that reason. No more worries about getting snow as I know it will snow here pretty much every winter. This has been about the most snowless winter they have had in a while here, and it has been fantastic to me. Heck, it snowed like 5 inches on Christmas day! 


I do hope everyone on the westside can get some severe cold and maybe stir up some moisture to boot. Watching and hoping!!

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That is one cold GEM run.  Brrr.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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