February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[Skagit Weather]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Seattle has a rich history of extremely variable snowfall, although the 1880s and 1890s were consistently snowy.

Yeah, that's what happens when we live in such a marginal climate and have just one or two storms a year (if we're lucky). You could get a week of cold weather and end up with 20"+ of snow or you could have that one cold airmass miss you to the east/west and the regional climate barely blinks an eye.

[MossMan]

14 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said:

That would be a legit ice storm.  Lots of overtime pay for the linemen

I’m only in the light pink ...Or is that purple...My mid 40’s eyes are failing me.

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, wxmet said:

The GEFS 18z 500mb 510 and 552 dm spaghetti plot. You can make out the negative NAO block and the TPV over Canada but the Pacific is an absolute mess. Lots to work out between now and next week.

This event still has a shot at being the real deal.  There is so much cold air to work with that small changes could be huge.

[Winterdog]

17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Wow!  6 sub -15 ensemble members on the 18z GEFS with a mean of -10.6.  Pretty legit cold.

Crazy, I wasn't even going to look at it this afternoon, I figured why bother.  That's encouraging.

[MossMan]

11 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Another thing we don't get up here. In the last 20 years we've only had ice twice 2008 and 2004? (maybe) with never more than 0.1". This map would seem to suggest that trend continues.

Yeah I remember one time which I think might have been the mid 1990’s we had a little ice accumulation but that’s it. Usually stays all snow up here until the transition to straight rain. 

[Phil]

Yeah something tells me this is unlikely..

 

[snow_wizard]

The 18z shows highs of 32, 33, 31 for SEA on the 10th - 12th.  3 inches of snow total.

[Winterdog]

22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z GEFS sends that ULL farther north into Alaska later next week... more in line with the EPS.

 

Let's all use the consistent EPS has our standard from now on.  Will you volunteer to keep us up on things?

[Cjmessling]

23 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Probably overdue for an ice storm here. 

I was thinking the same a couple weeks ago. Was it 2012 that we had the big region wide one. They started saying 0.1” of ice then moved it to .25 and then to .5 and I think it ended up being .6-.7 when all was said and done in the south sound area. Obviously widespread damage with those amounts

[Cjmessling]

Or maybe I’m thinking 2008. All a blur from 2007-2012  

[snow_wizard]

23 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The UK is staring down a pretty fun looking weekend. Strong easterlies and copious moisture. Kind of a dream setup for them.

Their version of us is getting pretty excited.

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/1-weather-discussion-winter/

They sound just like us, although you can tell they are Brits from some of the wording and spelling.  I found it interesting they still say a foot of snow as being a big goal just like us.

[bainbridgekid]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

There was an ice storm a few years back (after 2012) that was extremely destructive to the trees between North Bend and Snoqualmie Pass.     Much worse than any "drought" we have had in this area in the last decade. 

There is still like a 2 mile long stretch there where half the trees are snapped off halfway to the top and tons more are down entirely. Super obvious driving through if you're looking for it. I believe they got like 4-5" of freezing rain in that small stretch with all snow East and rain to the West.

[The Blob]

We moved here from California. I do miss the heat, but I do love having some semblance of weather. Plus it is cheaper for a family of 5.

[Fircrest]

21 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Covington does ice storms well.  Too bad I'm not wild about them  I got rid of the two trees that really made me nervous last year so I'll be more open to it.

Ice storms are really the only extreme weather events I do not like. Well, maybe not 100 degree heat either.  I work for the parks department and ice storms cause too much work.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

There is still like a 2 mile long stretch there where half the trees are snapped off halfway to the top and tons more are down entirely. Super obvious driving through if you're looking for it. I believe they got like 4-5" of freezing rain in that small stretch with all snow East and rain to the West.

I wouldn't wish ice like that on anyone.  Yikes!  I remember seeing that path of destruction too.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, The Blob said:

We moved here from California. I do miss the heat, but I do love having some semblance of weather. Plus it is cheaper for a family of 5.

Hopefully we will get a real honest to goodness winter one of these times for you to enjoy.  Once in a while we get a really good one.

[Tyler Mode]

7 Day from KPTV

[umadbro]

I see the GFS is sliding another rug in under our feet. 

[Fircrest]

3 minutes ago, iFred said:

My gut feeling is that its still too early to throw in the towel and to start talking about Tim's budding leaves. I just have this weird hunch that the door swings back mid to late Feb and again in March as we start transitioning to spring. This is all based on the same scientific methods that the Long Island Medium uses in her practice, so take it as you may.

Have you spoken to the ghosts from arctic blasts of the past?

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, iFred said:

My gut feeling is that its still too early to throw in the towel and to start talking about Tim's budding leaves. I just have this weird hunch that the door swings back mid to late Feb and again in March as we start transitioning to spring. This is all based on the same scientific methods that the Long Island Medium uses in her practice, so take it as you may.

You could easily be right.  This may be a late bloomer like 1954- 55 and some other Nina winters that had a horrible first half and very good second half or even late winter..

[snow_wizard]

My streak of sub 50 highs may get really long if I get through the next day or so.  Looks like no problem today as it's only hit 43 so far.  The streak is 20 or 21 days now.

[TacomaWaWx]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You could easily be right.  This may be a late bloomer like 1954- 55 and some other Nina winters that had a horrible first half and very good second half or even late winter..

Has been awhile since we’ve had a legit snowstorm in early March. Had 1” of snow March 8th 2019 but wouldn’t consider that too major. 

[Tyler Mode]

So tasty!  From the NWS in Missoula, MT:

 

The initial slosh will likely be short lived with moist westerly
flow taking over on Saturday. This will lead to enhanced mountain
snowfall production and steady light snow in most valleys. Valley
snow production will increase late Saturday and especially
overnight as a flood of arctic air ultimately pours over the
Continental Divide. An area of VERY impressive snowfall is
expected as strong snow squalls are typical to form in the dynamic
environment out ahead of the arctic boundary. Timing this area of
intense snow will ultimately be key to determining when and where
our most intense valley accumulations will occur and is something
we`ll be diligently evaluating these next 48 hours. That being
said, there is high confidence that the combination of intense
snowfall, wind, and cold will create dangerous conditions in the
West Glacier Region, Flathead Valley, and Seeley/Swan Region and a
Winter Storm Watch has been issued. Additional Watches and
Advisories are expected as confidence in this weekend storm
evolves, so please stay tuned for additional details.

Steady light to moderate snowfall will continue through Sunday and
into Monday as the arctic air mass takes up residence this side
of the Continental Divide. Several more inches of accumulation
are to be expected, both in the valleys and terrain. It looks like
by Tuesday the moisture feed will be cut off and the atmosphere
starts to show signs of drying. Bitterly cold temperatures are
expected to develop with many locations across Western Montana
experiencing several days with lows below zero and highs not
climbing out of the teens. Dangerously cold wind chill readings
are also to be expected with even the lightest of breeze,
particularly early next week. Also, there is still a chance we
could see dangerous cold as some models actually bring down a
reinforcing shot of even colder arctic air late next week.

[TacomaWaWx]

46/41 0.01” today. Rain shadow doing a good job down here so far. 1.51” of rain so far this month. 

[Winterdog]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

My streak of sub 50 highs may get really long if I get through the next day or so.  Looks like no problem today as it's only hit 43 so far.  The streak is 20 or 21 days now.

I'm at 22 days now.  High today of 42 after a low of 38.  .38" of precip with a monthly total of 1.67"

[MossMan]

12 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Has been awhile since we’ve had a legit snowstorm in early March. Had 1” of snow March 8th 2019 but wouldn’t consider that too major. 

Have had a few great March’s. 2019 was lovely, I also want to say 2002 (pretty sure it was) and 1989 was epic with a foot of snow falling. 

[TT-SEA]

24 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

My streak of sub 50 highs may get really long if I get through the next day or so.  Looks like no problem today as it's only hit 43 so far.  The streak is 20 or 21 days now.

Streak at a whopping 4 days here!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

52F and beautiful.

[JW8]

From @KSeattleWeather

Since 1945, there’s only been 2 winters in #Seattle without a high temp below 40 degrees: 1957-58 & 1991-92 (both strong El Niño winters). This winter—a La Niña, of all things—could be #3. Will be very close call with cold air next week.

[MossMan]

17 minutes ago, JW8 said:

From @KSeattleWeather

Since 1945, there’s only been 2 winters in #Seattle without a high temp below 40 degrees: 1957-58 & 1991-92 (both strong El Niño winters). This winter—a La Niña, of all things—could be #3. Will be very close call with cold air next week.

That is just downright pathetic. 

[snow_wizard]

18z ECMWF is colder than the 12z.  Yeah!

[bainbridgekid]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

18z ECMWF is colder than the 12z.  Yeah!

Does it show a CZ at all Sunday night?

00z NAM will be the first to reach into that timeframe so I'll be interested to see how it handles it.

[seattleweatherguy]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

18z ECMWF is colder than the 12z.  Yeah!

Good start!

[snow_wizard]

57 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Has been awhile since we’ve had a legit snowstorm in early March. Had 1” of snow March 8th 2019 but wouldn’t consider that too major. 

We are really due.  1989 was fantastic, but no big ones since.  I do remember one year in the 2000s had a fair amount.  It's kind of surprising how may big snow / cold events we have had in early March.  Prior to 1989 you had 1971, 1960, 1955, 1951, etc.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Does it show a CZ at all Sunday night?

00z NAM will be the first to reach into that timeframe so I'll be interested to see how it handles it.

It shows some snow in Skagit and Snohomish Counties Sunday night.

[paulb/eugene]

Euro ensemble 18z, seems suggestive of a bit more cold air interior NW 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Anybody got a better map? This is pretty low res

[TT-SEA]

18Z ECMWF... total snow through end of the run which is 90 hours.

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

The clouds are a nice pink even with it being so cloudy

[snow_wizard]

At hour 90 the 18z ECMWF shows 850s about 2C colder than the 12z did at hour 96, with Arctic air closer than the 12z showed.  850s are already down to -8 at OLM at hour 90.