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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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7 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

WOW UKMET ALERT !!!!

 

Back to back cold runs for that model now.  Why people were giving up last night with such a volatile situation is beyond me.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 54

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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I just experienced the craziest day of my life. Normal, routine doctor's visit quickly spiraled into a seven hour stay in the ER for a MRI scan to check for malignant tumors or multiple sclerosis. Tha

Downvote this post if you want snow.

Good morning,  As you know, back in late December I decided to end my jovial "ranting" here among you soulless bastard's to focus on more personal matters.  Well despite my better judgement

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4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Kinda fun that it feels like literally anything is still on the table. Actually reduces the stress quite a bit.

I have no more energy to give towards being excited or upset. Whatever happens, happens, at this point. 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Back to back cold runs for that model now.  Why people were giving up last night with such a volatile situation is beyond me.

Mainly because these volatile situations do not normally pan out very well... Let's hope this one brings the good in a epic way. Let's see if the EURO jumps onto the arctic outbreak bandwagon! :)

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Back to back cold runs for that model now.  Why people were giving up last night with such a volatile situation is beyond me.

UKMET gets cold MUCH faster too

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Just now, jakerepp said:

I have no more energy to give towards being excited or upset. Whatever happens, happens, at this point. 

Exactly. I've reached a perfect state of modeling Zen at this point. Impossible to feel invested in anything.

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7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Kinda fun that it feels like literally anything is still on the table. Actually reduces the stress quite a bit.

I agree.  I'm having fun.  A great outcome would be totally awesome too!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 54

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Back to back cold runs for that model now.  Why people were giving up last night with such a volatile situation is beyond me.

Don’t be disappointed if it doesn’t go the way you want though. Still a toss up. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-66

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For those who haven't seen the GEM you should look.  After a week of cold weather the run ends with a big fat 150 ridge potentially ready to deliver more cold.  In the bigger picture this has a chance to be an epic nearly nationwide cold wave that harks back to the good old days.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 54

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Exactly. I've reached a perfect state of modeling Zen at this point. Impossible to feel invested in anything.

NOT ME!!! No ZEN!!! I’VE HAD LOTS OF CAFFEINE THIS MORNING! 
THE GFS IS OUT TO LUNCH...GO UK AND GEM! 
Up to .93” on the day. First time seeing water across the roadway at this spot. 

D8BDC11F-F0D3-4179-9F3C-C5EF8EC97F38.jpeg

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EC with a worse solution regionally ML -200

EC with a better solution regionally ML +180

Place your bets...

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Don’t be disappointed if it doesn’t go the way you want though. Still a toss up. 

I think I have finally gone beyond getting so insanely invested in this stuff.  The fun model runs is literally half of the enjoyment for me...well...maybe 45%.  I know I will move to a more enjoyable climate some day, and in the meantime I'll take what I can get.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 54

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

NOT ME!!! No ZEN!!! I’VE HAD LOTS OF CAFFEINE THIS MORNING! 
THE GFS IS OUT TO LUNCH...GO UK AND GEM! 
Up to .93” on the day. First time seeing water across the roadway at this spot. 

D8BDC11F-F0D3-4179-9F3C-C5EF8EC97F38.jpeg

The GFS is actually pretty cold.  The 6z was insane.

Amazingly I've had very little rain the last few days.  Obviously not the case up your way.  My big goal right now is to stay below 50 today and keep my quite long streak of sub 50 highs going.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 54

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

The GFS is actually pretty cold.  The 6z was insane.

Amazingly I've very little rain the last few days.  Obviously not the case up your way.  My big goal right now is to stay below 50 today and keep my quite long streak of sub 50 highs going.

Y'all are probly gonna get chilly or downright cold up there. Down this way seems a far more dubious prospect.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Y'all are probly gonna get chilly or downright cold up there. Down this way seems a far more dubious prospect.

Still probably the coldest weather since October. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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The 12z GFS meteograms spit out a 34 / 23 day for Seattle, and those are a bit warm biased (based on face value model output) from what I've been able to tell.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 54

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Morning hike. 

BBA07777-4730-41DC-9125-1FC3B8ECDFC2.jpeg

A cave underneath a waterfall.  Pretty D**n cool!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 54

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1.54” of rain yesterday, 1.49” so far today. I purchased this weather station because I knew how different rain totals must be up here compared to down in North Bend, seems to be paying off! North Bend at 0.47” yesterday and 0.49” today. Rainforest!

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Still probably the coldest weather since October. 

For y’all up there absolutely. Gonna be tough to get below the 23F here from Oct 26. This setup feels tenuous for getting super cold anomalies this far south but it would definitely be colder than normal which is very nice.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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25 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Y'all are probly gonna get chilly or downright cold up there. Down this way seems a far more dubious prospect.

If the Ukie or the GEM end up correct you will get really cold there.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 54

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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11 minutes ago, MossMan said:

NOT ME!!! No ZEN!!! I’VE HAD LOTS OF CAFFEINE THIS MORNING! 
THE GFS IS OUT TO LUNCH...GO UK AND GEM! 
Up to .93” on the day. First time seeing water across the roadway at this spot. 

D8BDC11F-F0D3-4179-9F3C-C5EF8EC97F38.jpeg

 

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1 minute ago, JBolin said:

Where the hell is this at and how do I get there?

 

North Falls at Silver Falls state park. Literally 2 miles tops from my front door... Sometimes I take that for granted. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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6 minutes ago, JBolin said:

Where the hell is this at and how do I get there?

 

Silver Falls north falls. One of the most beautiful places in Oregon and the crown jewel of the state park system.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

North Falls at Silver Falls state park. Literally 2 miles tops from my front door... Sometimes I take that for granted. 

A more positive Andrew that now hikes daily! 

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5 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

1.54” of rain yesterday, 1.49” so far today. I purchased this weather station because I knew how different rain totals must be up here compared to down in North Bend, seems to be paying off! North Bend at 0.47” yesterday and 0.49” today. Rainforest!

This is a classic upslope pattern that favors the foothills exposed to NW flow which exaggerates the orographic effects.   It happened frequently in 2018.    The opposite was true for the last couple weeks of January when it was drier out here with general easterly flow.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

North Falls at Silver Falls state park. Literally 2 miles tops from my front door... Sometimes I take that for granted. 

Dude, I would be there every chance I got, that's like living in Lapland and NEVER going out in the middle of the night to pet the reindeer as the Aurora dances above you.

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6 minutes ago, JBolin said:

Dude, I would be there every chance I got, that's like living in Lapland and NEVER going out in the middle of the night to pet the reindeer as the Aurora dances above you.

Finnish people are some of the most chill people you will come across. They're a proud group that survived the Indo-European pillaging because the IE peoples' horses got cold and were dying of starvation, so they would regularly be saved and warmed by these reindeer-herding and fishing peoples. Gradually their cultures admixed instead of the N haplotype being eradicated and they invented the sauna together with their combined techniques.

I would love to visit there one day.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

I concur, let’s lock in that CMC run. ❄️

Just looked at it. Wowzers 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Any thoughts on a historical pattern what we have coming up resembles? 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just looked at it. Wowzers 

Best run yet across the CONUS.

Coldest 850mb temps on record for much of the West/Midwest. Would also get me to average snowfall for the season. 👊

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Any thoughts on a historical pattern what we have coming up resembles? 

That is an excellent question. At noon the CPC posts 6-10 and 8-15 day analogs.

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Just now, Phil said:

This run should be colder than 00z. More of the TPV gets squeezed out of AK/Yukon early on by -NAO.

Kiss of death? 😉

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

This run should be colder than 00z. More of the TPV gets squeezed out of AK/Yukon early on by -NAO.

I was just thinking that the 12Z ECMWF might be colder based on what I am seeing up around Alaska at day 3.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Positive changes on the ECMWF.  The top part of the block is more robust and there is more back digging along the BC Coast early on.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 54

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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