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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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I just experienced the craziest day of my life. Normal, routine doctor's visit quickly spiraled into a seven hour stay in the ER for a MRI scan to check for malignant tumors or multiple sclerosis. Tha

Downvote this post if you want snow.

Good morning,  As you know, back in late December I decided to end my jovial "ranting" here among you soulless bastard's to focus on more personal matters.  Well despite my better judgement

Posted Images

2 hours ago, JBolin said:

Good morning, 

As you know, back in late December I decided to end my jovial "ranting" here among you soulless bastard's to focus on more personal matters. 

Well despite my better judgement I have chosen to share some major life news with you all, my gf has accepted an amazing offer from her employer that requires relocation. As such the offer comes with all expenses paid relocation overseas. 

As of August 3rd of this year, her and I will be living full time in Tampere, Finland, not only will this be a massive change but also a welcome change as she is originally from Finland and still has family there as well as in Sweden and Norway. 

I'm still a bit shell-shocked about the whole thing but then I realized, I'll get to see the Aurora Borealis, I'll get snow and not have to worry about the models waffling, I'll see so many things that many of us want or hope to see (in a lifetime) and how lucky we'll both be to experience that. 

The immersion into a culture I'm not familiar with will be a hard task to endure but the "rewards" will far outweigh any hiccups or missteps I may have. 

So for the time being, I may continue to lurk among you and may periodically post. 

Take it easy you goons.

Congrats on the big news, that is awesome!!!!!!!

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7 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Just remember this hasn’t happened just yet. Encouraging signs but it could change by the next run or two. 

Yeah, not to be a downer, but we're talking about day 6+ here in a very tenuous pattern where the models have been all over the place just 4-5 days out.

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Low. Solar.

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1 minute ago, jakerepp said:

What in the world is going on?

At this rate, we're going to get the rug pulled out and put back under us 4 more times before Monday even gets here. 

Probably true

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The TPV basically parks itself over central Canada due to all the high latitude blocking leading to sustained cold air.

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Good for our 2nd coldest temp of the fall-winter. Not too shabby!

Latest.png

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 49 (Most recent: Apr 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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3 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

What in the world is going on?

At this rate, we're going to get the rug pulled out and put back under us 4 more times before Monday even gets here. 

The rug was never pulled. Phil said it best. The Euro had the solution and for whatever reason lost it for 2 daya

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Pattern is about 4-5 days from establishing itself. The medium range *should* be the Euro’s deadly range and hopefully not too many changes between now and then.

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2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, not to be a downer, but we're talking about day 6+ here in a very tenuous pattern where the models have been all over the place just 4-5 days out.

Yeah I definitely agree. Nice to see the models looking good but the last few days it’s been so back and forth it’s hard to get excited about it yet. Euro spits out a couple sub 30 high temps here next week would be impressive if it verifies! Hopefully by Sunday or Monday we’ve actually locked into something. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-63

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7 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:
WOW. The cold air advection is very strong reminiscent of the real deal big blasts of the past.

The 12z EURO delivers! Possible snowstorm later next week with a system coming onshore with Arctic air already in place. 🌨☃️🥶

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

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<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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3 hours ago, JBolin said:

Good morning, 

As you know, back in late December I decided to end my jovial "ranting" here among you soulless bastard's to focus on more personal matters. 

Well despite my better judgement I have chosen to share some major life news with you all, my gf has accepted an amazing offer from her employer that requires relocation. As such the offer comes with all expenses paid relocation overseas. 

As of August 3rd of this year, her and I will be living full time in Tampere, Finland, not only will this be a massive change but also a welcome change as she is originally from Finland and still has family there as well as in Sweden and Norway. 

I'm still a bit shell-shocked about the whole thing but then I realized, I'll get to see the Aurora Borealis, I'll get snow and not have to worry about the models waffling, I'll see so many things that many of us want or hope to see (in a lifetime) and how lucky we'll both be to experience that. 

The immersion into a culture I'm not familiar with will be a hard task to endure but the "rewards" will far outweigh any hiccups or missteps I may have. 

So for the time being, I may continue to lurk among you and may periodically post. 

Take it easy you goons.

Congratulations! Sounds like a wonderful experience.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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On this run... the precip is all to the south later next week but this has the feeling of something that could evolve into a major overrunning snowstorm on future runs 

Or it could be a February 2014 special for Eugene! 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-precip_12hr_inch-3131200.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Kind of an OMG run!  Might have a shot at a couple of -20 departures with that.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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NWS still playing it a little on the safe side as of this am.  Will be interesting to see if they budge from this:

Conditions become even less favorable for precipitation Monday night
and Tuesday as onshore flow transitions to offshore flow, bringing in
a colder and drier air mass. The main question that remains is how
cold the air mass in the Columbia Basin will get, which will affect
how strong the offshore flow will get and what temperatures will be
like west of the Cascades. At this time, much uncertainty remains in
the strength and position of the cold upper trough that models and
their ensembles continue to advertise somewhere over the Columbia
Basin and Northern Plains during the middle of next week. If this
trough sets up further to the east as some guidance suggests, then
offshore flow would be weaker and temperatures over northwest OR and
southwest WA would not be as cold. If the trough ends up further west
with a deep layer of cold air building over eastern WA/OR, then
strong east winds and cold temperatures would be likely. Given the
uncertainty that still remains, went with the latest NBM guidance for
the temperature forecast. The NBM 90th percentile guidance was used
for the wind forecast, which increases east winds to more reasonable
intensities. For what it`s worth, the NBM produces widespread
overnight lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s Wednesday night and
Thursday night. That said, there is a significant amount of spread
evident on the NBM 1D viewer. Will have to watch what happens late in
the week, when both the GFS and the EURO have light precipitation
moving into northern portions of the forecast area. If a sufficient
cold pool is able to build over the northern Willamette Valley into
the Gorge during the middle of the week, then wintry precipitation
may be possible over lower elevations late in the week. It is much
too soon to tell, so stay tuned! -TK
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1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 8

500h_anom.na.png

Not that it bears ANY meaning but the last time I saw a "face" in the upper air run/s we ended up with over 13"

Similar to Feb '19, Dec '12, late Nov '08 and also Dec 1996

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah I definitely agree. Nice to see the models looking good but the last few days it’s been so back and forth it’s hard to get excited about it yet. Euro spits out a couple sub 30 high temps here next week would be impressive if it verifies! Hopefully by Sunday or Monday we’ve actually locked into something. 

The thing is it turns fairly cold in a just a couple of days.  Obviously the real stuff is still a ways out.  Could trend even colder though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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850mb temp loop per the 12Z ECMWF... still seems like more of a glancing blow west of the Cascades.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-t850_anom_stream-1612526400-1612526400-1613217600-10.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

The thing is it turns fairly cold in a just a couple of days.  Obviously the real stuff is still a ways out.  Could trend even colder though.

could trend warmer too!  the choice is yours!

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Looks like Euro showing lows in the upper teens here a week from today. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The thing is it turns fairly cold in a just a couple of days.  Obviously the real stuff is still a ways out.  Could trend even colder though.

With more precip please

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The thing is it turns fairly cold in a just a couple of days.  Obviously the real stuff is still a ways out.  Could trend even colder though.

Definitely hoping for something epic we all are! This would really redeem this winter. Hopefully get a little snow out of it at some point too. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-63

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

On this run... the precip is all to the south later next week but this has the feeling of something that could evolve into a major overrunning snowstorm on future runs 

Or it could be a February 2014 special for Eugene! 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-precip_12hr_inch-3131200.png

I agree, there's potential for a big snow/ice event somewhere along the I-5 corridor.

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<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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12Z ECMWF shows highs in the low to mid 30s in Seattle from Wednesday - Saturday.

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Maybe a sub-40F high!!!

1613260800-HydUX9EsjiY.png

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 49 (Most recent: Apr 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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The critical point in this run was late Monday into Tuesday... when the split heavily favored the main trough and not the Alaskan trough.    It will be very interesting to see if the 12Z EPS follows the ECMWF again.  

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9 minutes ago, JBolin said:

Not that it bears ANY meaning but the last time I saw a "face" in the upper air run/s we ended up with over 13"

Similar to Feb '19, Dec '12, late Nov '08 and also Dec 1996

Great analysis!

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If that cold trough around day 6 were to dig out over the ocean a tiny bit more we could see a snowstorm and even colder temps than this run shows.  We would have snow cover and even colder 850s.  At any rate what a great run.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Well the Euro sure changed it's tune for my area. Unfortunately with both of our pattern changes this season the GFS took the lead 2 to 3 days before the Euro finally caught on. So I am not buying it until the GFS catches on. God I hope it happens though. 

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Unfortunately on this run... its completely dry for all of WA state after about Wednesday afternoon through the end of the run.   Subject to change of course! 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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That's some very strong offshore flow to say the least.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Unfortunately on this run... its completely dry for all of WA state after about Wednesday afternoon through the end of the run.

It's no secret that you prefer sun and warmth, but would you rather have a weeklong cold snap that stays dry, or gives you some good snow? 

I know Feb 2019 was apocalyptic type snow up there, so let's assume it doesn't get to that level. 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Unfortunately on this run... its completely dry for all of WA state after about Wednesday afternoon through the end of the run.   Subject to change of course! 

Definitely reminiscent of December 2009 and February 2014. Did have an overrunning event to end 2014 however. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-63

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9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

850mb temp loop per the 12Z ECMWF... still seems like more of a glancing blow west of the Cascades.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-t850_anom_stream-1612526400-1612526400-1613217600-10.gif

It sure wouldn't take much to bring the vodka cold in here.  Really close call assuming anywhere close to this ends up being reality.  Every model has had a turn at a great run now so it's more likely than it was.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 minute ago, jakerepp said:

It's no secret that you prefer sun and warmth, but would you rather have a weeklong cold snap that stays dry, or gives you some good snow? 

I know Feb 2019 was apocalyptic type snow up there, so let's assume it doesn't get to that level. 

Some snow would be nice for a cold snap.    But obviously I would like to avoid a February 2019 situation.   

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