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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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5 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Watching those loops above... its like that main trough is giving birth to a baby and which way it shoots out means everything in terms of our weather! 

So the baby shot out over alaska again? That swirling image you posted earlier this afternoon helped me grasp what's going on.

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The more I look at this the more I think the subsequent warming up has less to do with that upper level low over Alaska and more with the westward propagation of the negative NAO block which forces the TPV to reorient itself from zonal to meridional. That causes heights to build in the the West.

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1 minute ago, Bueryan said:

So the baby shot out over alaska again? That swirling image you posted earlier this afternoon helped me grasp what's going on.

Yes... it shot up to the NW into Alaska on this run which lessens the chance of the block being undercut and the moisture roaring back in.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, wxmet said:

The more I look at this the more I think the subsequent warming up has less to do with that upper level low over Alaska and more with the westward propagation of the negative NAO block which forces the TPV to reorient itself from zonal to meridional. That causes heights to build in the the West.

I am sure the split and the ULL heading into Alaska is being driven by something else.   I am just looking for the critical point that results in the wildly different paths we have been seeing in the models.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

Whats bizarre is that it seems the 00Z and 06Z GFS always back off on the cold and then the 12Z and 18Z bring it back. Coincidence or any scientific reason for this?

Could be different batches of data. I've actually noticed this pattern, but with the 18z/06z vs the 12z/00z instead.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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12Z GFS run on the top and the new 00Z GFS run on the bottom... what causes them to go in vastly different directions?     Its seems like its the trough split around day 5... but I am no expert on the bigger drivers.  

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-1612440000-1612440000-1613293200-10.gif

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-1612483200-1612483200-1613293200-10.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The GFS might still be leaving too much energy on the west side of the main trough after the split... but its much closer to the ECMWF solution.    Assuming the ECMWF holds its position!

It's dry through the middle of the month, toss it out. I'd take my chances with what the 0z GEM is showing:

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_28.png

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12 minutes ago, wxmet said:

The more I look at this the more I think the subsequent warming up has less to do with that upper level low over Alaska and more with the westward propagation of the negative NAO block which forces the TPV to reorient itself from zonal to meridional. That causes heights to build in the the West.

Watching the progression of things I was thinking the anticyclonic flow around that strong NAO block is what is causing the ULL to get stuck in Alaska. 

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55 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

March 1, 2007 appears to have been snowy in your area and parts of the island.

7Zf04zQ.jpg

Going back through to 2002 I wasn't able to find many March days with snow followed by clear skies. Generally March snow melts before you have a clear day. March 17, 2002 dumped a bunch of snow on the island, but looks like it was mostly a high elevation event further south:

bVy0xrs.jpg

 

 

We had a lot of snow in March of 2002. 23” total at Shawnigan Lake. 

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Just now, Acer said:

You really enjoy doing this don’t you? 🤪

I do like analyzing the models whichever way they are going.

I posted the loop of the 00Z GEFS through day 10 which is probably more informative than just the day 10 map.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

 

This run is vastly different than the 12Z run up in Alaska.   The 18Z run took a big step in that direction (towards the ECMWF/EPS) and the 00Z run continued that trend.   

12Z run on top... and 00Z run on the bottom.    Look at the difference over Alaska.

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-3001600 (1).png

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-3001600.png

Weird pattern.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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Any bets on if the ECMWF goes in a completely different direction now that the GFS has come around to the ECMWF solution?  🤔

 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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