Olyman 17 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Long time lurker. If we get a big blast, you can thank me. Heading for Hawaii on Tuesday. I hope we get a blast, but I do hope there is no Kona low! 5 Link to post Share on other sites
Kolk1604 880 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Here we go boys. Starting Monday night 7 1 Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9300 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, Olyman said: Long time lurker. If we get a big blast, you can thank me. Heading for Hawaii on Tuesday. I hope we get a blast, but I do hope there is no Kona low! Well thanks! And welcome. Have a good trip. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
snow_wizard 12228 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 10 it just doesn't end With super low dps if we can get snow cover there could be some wild low temps in wind sheltered areas. 4 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2020-21 stats Total Snowfall = 7.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5 Total Hail = 0.0" Coldest Low = 23 Lows 32 or below = 54 Highs 32 or below = 2 Lows 20 or below = 0 Highs 40 or below = 5 Link to post Share on other sites
Snowdrift 413 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Cold, wind, and 1 Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9300 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 With dewpoints in the negative values, IF we had moisture/snow with wet bulb cooling could you imagine how cold PDX could potentially get? We're talking single digits if we had a strong enough system with lots of moisture and strong east wind. 5 Link to post Share on other sites
jakerepp 1087 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Some snow would be nice for a cold snap. But obviously I would like to avoid a February 2019 situation. I get it. A couple of my co-workers are up there and they couldn't leave for a week. One of them drives a 4Runner... I think the most I had on the ground was a foot or so, which I think is perfect for a 2 week stretch, while our total snowfall was 18-20'' I believe. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9300 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 I'm exhausteddd I need a nap before 00z. 6 1 Link to post Share on other sites
jakerepp 1087 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: I'm exhausteddd I need a nap before 00z. You've earned it! We'll hold down the fort for you. 4 Link to post Share on other sites
GHweatherChris 3650 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 5 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: Here we go boys. Starting Monday night There are some girls on the forum as well. 3 1 1 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9300 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 DRAMATIC improvement with EPS! 6 1 Link to post Share on other sites
MR.SNOWMIZER 7082 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Any Moisture details will have to wait to the 24-36hr window. 6 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to post Share on other sites
nwsnow 2771 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 26 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: On this run... the precip is all to the south later next week but this has the feeling of something that could evolve into a major overrunning snowstorm on future runs Or it could be a February 2014 special for Eugene! Feb 2014 was pretty darn good up in PDX as well. 2 Link to post Share on other sites
paulb/eugene 583 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Euro ensemble control run a bit colder than operational 6 Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9300 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Here's a possible scenario. Ready? Arctic trough digs even further west, we end up with short-over-water trajectory AND that pulls the PV lobe even closer towards Northern Idaho. We end up with a snow storm Day 5 to 5.5. Incredible arctic blast. 5 1 Link to post Share on other sites
TacomaWaWx 4623 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: DRAMATIC improvement with EPS! Let’s see it! 2 Warm Season Stats +80s-0 +85s-0 +90s-0 Monthly Rainfall-0.39” Warm Season Rainfall-0.39” Warmest high temp-66 Link to post Share on other sites
TT-SEA 4239 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 12Z EPS at 120 hours... 3 1 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to post Share on other sites
paulb/eugene 583 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Euro ensemble control run a bit colder than operational 4 Link to post Share on other sites
hawkstwelve 7273 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 EPS following the lead of the operational in phasing the AK energy better with the trough, keeping that vortex up there much weaker. 5 Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com Link to post Share on other sites
TacomaWaWx 4623 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Just now, TT-SEA said: 12Z EPS at 120 hours... Wow 3/4 of the country about to enter the freezer. Pretty impressive stuff. 5 Warm Season Stats +80s-0 +85s-0 +90s-0 Monthly Rainfall-0.39” Warm Season Rainfall-0.39” Warmest high temp-66 Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9300 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, paulb/eugene said: Euro ensemble control run a bit colder than operational Siberian hammer about to drop 3 1 Link to post Share on other sites
TT-SEA 4239 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 12Z EPS at day 6... 2 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to post Share on other sites
hawkstwelve 7273 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: EPS following the lead of the operational in phasing the AK energy better with the trough, keeping that vortex up there much weaker. As a result, 850s are noticeably chillier especially up in BC. 2 Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com Link to post Share on other sites
Snowdrift 413 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 -36c 850s up in Alberta 4 Link to post Share on other sites
JBolin 1110 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: Any Moisture details will have to wait to the 24-36hr window. Don't you have the snowmizer toy? If so, you need to have him make "appearances" as well as doing the snow dance. 2 Link to post Share on other sites
TT-SEA 4239 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 12Z EPS day 7... 2 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to post Share on other sites
Frontal Snowsquall 2622 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 10 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: I'm exhausteddd I need a nap before 00z. Get some rest. Night shift going to be very busy! 2 1 <p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font> Link to post Share on other sites
RentonHillTC 582 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Just now, TT-SEA said: 12Z EPS day 7... Its not a hammer...its a hydraulic press 2 2 Link to post Share on other sites
Front Ranger 7637 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 22 minutes ago, AlTahoe said: Well the Euro sure changed it's tune for my area. Unfortunately with both of our pattern changes this season the GFS took the lead 2 to 3 days before the Euro finally caught on. So I am not buying it until the GFS catches on. God I hope it happens though. How much snow did you end up with in January? 2 Low. Solar. Link to post Share on other sites
Kolk1604 880 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 8 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Siberian hammer about to drop Lol yep way better than arctic hammer! 2 Link to post Share on other sites
Frontal Snowsquall 2622 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 9 minutes ago, nwsnow said: Feb 2014 was pretty darn good up in PDX as well. Yeah, moisture didn't start showing up until a few days before the event and intially it was headed to Southern Oregon but eventually trended north at the last minute. 3 consecutive days of snow for PDX. Thu, Fri and Sat if I remember correctly. 2 <p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font> Link to post Share on other sites
Front Ranger 7637 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 21 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Definitely reminiscent of December 2009 and February 2014. Did have an overrunning event to end 2014 however. Dec 2009 was basically worst case scenario as far as dry blasts go. Almost never happens like that, with hardly any lowland snow anywhere. 2 Low. Solar. Link to post Share on other sites
snow_wizard 12228 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Drastic changes on the EPS. Really something to see the EPS change so much with something so close. This may end up being big league. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2020-21 stats Total Snowfall = 7.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5 Total Hail = 0.0" Coldest Low = 23 Lows 32 or below = 54 Highs 32 or below = 2 Lows 20 or below = 0 Highs 40 or below = 5 Link to post Share on other sites
TT-SEA 4239 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 12Z EPS day 8.5... 2 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to post Share on other sites
MossMan 10747 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 32 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z ECMWF shows highs in the low to mid 30s in Seattle from Wednesday - Saturday. Hopefully sub freezing at my place! 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Kolk1604 880 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 So much going on hard to keep up. EPS better with snow also 5 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Acer 994 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 33 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z ECMWF shows highs in the low to mid 30s in Seattle from Wednesday - Saturday. There goes the >40 max streak 2 1 Link to post Share on other sites
TacomaWaWx 4623 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, MossMan said: Hopefully sub freezing at my place! If this run verifies you’d have a hard time getting out of the 20s for a few days. Even here it showed a couple sub 30 highs. 2 Warm Season Stats +80s-0 +85s-0 +90s-0 Monthly Rainfall-0.39” Warm Season Rainfall-0.39” Warmest high temp-66 Link to post Share on other sites
12345WeatherNerd 229 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Just now, Kolk1604 said: So much going on hard to keep up. EPS better with snow also Best EPS for Wester Wa snowfall I’ve seen recently, wow. 2 Link to post Share on other sites
High Desert Mat? 469 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 43 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: On this run... the precip is all to the south later next week but this has the feeling of something that could evolve into a major overrunning snowstorm on future runs Or it could be a February 2014 special for Eugene! And Redmond!!! Eerily similar to February 2014. 35” in 3 days. It was unreal. 2 Link to post Share on other sites
Front Ranger 7637 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z EPS at 120 hours... I'm a bit skeptical of a major PNW cold wave with such weak support from the Pacific block. I'm sure it's happened before, but has to be pretty rare. 3 1 1 Low. Solar. Link to post Share on other sites
hawkstwelve 7273 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 EPS actually looks kind of similar to the GEM with the ridge re-establishing itself offshore. Nice improvement from previous run. 4 Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com Link to post Share on other sites
TT-SEA 4239 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 12Z EPS... day 10. 2 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to post Share on other sites
MWG 210 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Still foggy and 34 degrees! 1 Link to post Share on other sites
snow_wizard 12228 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 I was hoping for the ECMWF suite of models to be better,, but this is insane. Interesting to note the UKMET picked up on it one run sooner. I think this could verify around -15 on the 850s over SEA. Going to be fun to watch. 4 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2020-21 stats Total Snowfall = 7.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5 Total Hail = 0.0" Coldest Low = 23 Lows 32 or below = 54 Highs 32 or below = 2 Lows 20 or below = 0 Highs 40 or below = 5 Link to post Share on other sites
snow_wizard 12228 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z EPS day 8.5... Maybe a poor man's 1899? 3 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2020-21 stats Total Snowfall = 7.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5 Total Hail = 0.0" Coldest Low = 23 Lows 32 or below = 54 Highs 32 or below = 2 Lows 20 or below = 0 Highs 40 or below = 5 Link to post Share on other sites
TT-SEA 4239 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, Front Ranger said: I'm a bit skeptical of a major PNW cold wave with such weak support from the Pacific block. I'm sure it's happened before, but has to be pretty rare. Yeah... its pretty typical for models to be too aggressive with cold air in the mid range. Even if it has the 500mb pattern correct it will probably moderate some. 1 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to post Share on other sites
JBolin 1110 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Anybody (Rob, Jim, Phil, etc) have any idea what type of pattern elicited the nearly 4" of snow in San Francisco in (I believe) 1886? 2 Link to post Share on other sites
snow_wizard 12228 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: I'm a bit skeptical of a major PNW cold wave with such weak support from the Pacific block. I'm sure it's happened before, but has to be pretty rare. It's all about the -NAO driven sideways trough back digging into us. One thing I have been skeptical about is the ECMWF and GEM wanting to progress the bottom part of the block inland so fast with a Kona low there in combo with the sideways trough over southern Canada. Pretty hard to ignore this kind of model consensus at this time frame. We'll see. 3 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2020-21 stats Total Snowfall = 7.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5 Total Hail = 0.0" Coldest Low = 23 Lows 32 or below = 54 Highs 32 or below = 2 Lows 20 or below = 0 Highs 40 or below = 5 Link to post Share on other sites
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