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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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I just experienced the craziest day of my life. Normal, routine doctor's visit quickly spiraled into a seven hour stay in the ER for a MRI scan to check for malignant tumors or multiple sclerosis. Tha

Downvote this post if you want snow.

Good morning,  As you know, back in late December I decided to end my jovial "ranting" here among you soulless bastard's to focus on more personal matters.  Well despite my better judgement

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1 minute ago, Olyman said:

Long time lurker. If we get a big blast, you can thank me. Heading for Hawaii on Tuesday. I hope we get a blast, but I do hope there is no Kona low!

Well thanks! And welcome. Have a good trip.

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5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 10 it just doesn't end

500h_anom.na.png

With super low dps if we can get snow cover there could be some wild low temps in wind sheltered areas.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 54

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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With dewpoints in the negative values, IF we had moisture/snow with wet bulb cooling could you imagine how cold PDX could potentially get? We're talking single digits if we had a strong enough system with lots of moisture and strong east wind.
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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Some snow would be nice for a cold snap.    But obviously I would like to avoid a February 2019 situation.   

I get it. A couple of my co-workers are up there and they couldn't leave for a week. One of them drives a 4Runner...

I think the most I had on the ground was a foot or so, which I think is perfect for a 2 week stretch, while our total snowfall was 18-20'' I believe.

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26 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

On this run... the precip is all to the south later next week but this has the feeling of something that could evolve into a major overrunning snowstorm on future runs 

Or it could be a February 2014 special for Eugene! 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-precip_12hr_inch-3131200.png

Feb 2014 was pretty darn good up in PDX as well.

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Here's a possible scenario. Ready? Arctic trough digs even further west, we end up with short-over-water trajectory AND that pulls the PV lobe even closer towards Northern Idaho. We end up with a snow storm Day 5 to 5.5. Incredible arctic blast.
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2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

DRAMATIC improvement with EPS!

Let’s see it! 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-66

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS at 120 hours...

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-2958400.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-2958400 (1).png

Wow 3/4 of the country about to enter the freezer. Pretty impressive stuff. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-66

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5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Any Moisture details will have to wait to the 24-36hr window.

Don't you have the snowmizer toy?

If so, you need to have him make "appearances" as well as doing the snow dance.

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10 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:
I'm exhausteddd I need a nap before 00z.

Get some rest. Night shift going to be very busy!

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<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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22 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Well the Euro sure changed it's tune for my area. Unfortunately with both of our pattern changes this season the GFS took the lead 2 to 3 days before the Euro finally caught on. So I am not buying it until the GFS catches on. God I hope it happens though. 

How much snow did you end up with in January?

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Low. Solar.

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9 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

Feb 2014 was pretty darn good up in PDX as well.

Yeah, moisture didn't start showing up until a few days before the event and intially it was headed to Southern Oregon but eventually trended north at the last minute. 3 consecutive days of snow for PDX. Thu, Fri and Sat if I remember correctly. 

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<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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21 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Definitely reminiscent of December 2009 and February 2014. Did have an overrunning event to end 2014 however. 

Dec 2009 was basically worst case scenario as far as dry blasts go. Almost never happens like that, with hardly any lowland snow anywhere.

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Low. Solar.

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Drastic changes on the EPS.  Really something to see the EPS change so much with something so close.  This may end up being big league.  

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 54

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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33 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF shows highs in the low to mid 30s in Seattle from Wednesday - Saturday.

There goes the >40 max streak 😥

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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Hopefully sub freezing at my place! 

If this run verifies you’d have a hard time getting out of the 20s for a few days. Even here it showed a couple sub 30 highs. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-66

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43 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

On this run... the precip is all to the south later next week but this has the feeling of something that could evolve into a major overrunning snowstorm on future runs 

Or it could be a February 2014 special for Eugene! 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-precip_12hr_inch-3131200.png

And Redmond!!! Eerily similar to February 2014. 35” in 3 days. It was unreal. 

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16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS at 120 hours...

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-2958400.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-2958400 (1).png

I'm a bit skeptical of a major PNW cold wave with such weak support from the Pacific block. I'm sure it's happened before, but has to be pretty rare.

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Low. Solar.

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I was hoping for the ECMWF suite of models to be better,, but this is insane.  Interesting to note the UKMET picked up on it one run sooner.  I think this could verify around -15 on the 850s over SEA.  Going to be fun to watch.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 54

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS day 8.5... 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-3260800.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-3174400.png

Maybe a poor man's 1899?

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 54

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

I'm a bit skeptical of a major PNW cold wave with such weak support from the Pacific block. I'm sure it's happened before, but has to be pretty rare.

Yeah... its pretty typical for models to be too aggressive with cold air in the mid range.   Even if it has the 500mb pattern correct it will probably moderate some.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I'm a bit skeptical of a major PNW cold wave with such weak support from the Pacific block. I'm sure it's happened before, but has to be pretty rare.

It's all about the -NAO driven sideways trough back digging into us.  One thing I have been skeptical about is the ECMWF and GEM wanting to progress the bottom part of the block inland so fast with a Kona low there in combo with the sideways trough over southern Canada. Pretty hard to ignore this kind of model consensus at this time frame.  We'll see.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 54

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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