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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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12 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Forgot I had hit single digits in 2019. What a fun month and a half that was! 

52A7CB32-8A28-41F2-B16D-3D30124FD7EE.jpeg

Wow, we didn't really get any clear nights until early March. Our coldest low that February was 18, Clouds and constant precip. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

This whole thing may go down as a fumble on the 5 yard line followed by miraculous interception and touch down on the next play.

That is until climo is like DK Metcalf and caught the interceptor from behind at breakneck speed preventing the miracle from happening. 

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17 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Forgot I had hit single digits in 2019. What a fun month and a half that was! 

52A7CB32-8A28-41F2-B16D-3D30124FD7EE.jpeg

Coldest it got here was 11.9F and we actually only had one subfreezing high in February 2019. Of course I guess that depends on how you count "sub-freezing" because we had 6 highs below 33F.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 6.9"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 

2020-21: 10.5" (2/10: Tr, 2/12: 0.5" , 2/13: 8.5", 2/14: 1.5")

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7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow, we didn't really get any clear nights until early March. Our coldest low that February was 18, Clouds and constant precip. 

I recorded lows of 10.2 on the 6th and 10.0 on the 10th that month.  I had forgotten how great that month was.

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That is terrible. Probably a surprise given my naturally optimistic nature, but I think about things like that all the time.  

Same. I worry about having a brain aneurysm. It can happen to anyone with good health at any time of life. You're just minding your business, and then suddenly a crippling headache, then loss of consciousness, then either death or serious, irreversible brain injury. My family has a history of heart/blood problems and my grandfather died of an aneurysm.

Outside of living healthily there's not much I can do about it, so it's best I just keep on keeping on and think about the snowmaps more than anything else.

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1 minute ago, Acer said:

I just looked at the ensembles.  To say the 18Z was a cold outlier wouldn't be giving it enough credit.

ens_image.php?geoid=136221&var=201&run=18&date=2021-02-01&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

It honestly looks like a hot mess beyond Day 5. Not really an outlier when there's an evenly-distributed 26C spread.

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2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It honestly looks like a hot mess beyond Day 5. Not really an outlier when there's an evenly-distributed 26C spread.

Yeah that is quite a spread and like you say it's pretty evenly scattered but the 18Z Op is at the bottom between the 14th and the 17th it looks like.

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1 minute ago, Acer said:

Yeah that is quite a spread and like you say it's pretty evenly scattered but the 18Z Op is at the bottom between the 14th and the 17th it looks like.

At least there's a constant presence of cold members; much better than the entirety of this winter. You could think of it like an ambient background probability of ~5% that a given day beyond D5 experiences arctic air. The more days with cold ensemble members, the better, because the days and their associated probabilities compound on one another; essentially from a statistical standpoint you roll the die again every day during that stretch.

IMO I think there is a decent shot at some winter weather before the end of the month, or at least a very close brush by with it. February has been a particularly kind month over the last decade and there is a consistent theme for blocking over the Pacific. I'd place it at a little over a 50/50 shot, no higher than 75/25. So it could still flop. We'll find out soon enough.

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10 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Same. I worry about having a brain aneurysm. It can happen to anyone with good health at any time of life. You're just minding your business, and then suddenly a crippling headache, then loss of consciousness, then either death or serious, irreversible brain injury. My family has a history of heart/blood problems and my grandfather died of an aneurysm.

Outside of living healthily there's not much I can do about it, so it's best I just keep on keeping on and think about the snowmaps more than anything else.

My mother was very healthy and then got non-Hodgkin's Lymphoma at 53 and passed away at 55, her mom is turning 97 in a few weeks and still lives by herself. Sometimes it is just random. I worry a lot about my kids. I have done more in my life than I really ever intended to, but having lost a parent at a somewhat young age, it really sucks, I would hope my kids are at a point where their lives are a little more figured out before they have to cope with that. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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My family has a history of Alzheimer’s/dementia. Particularly the men. My grandfather had it real rough, and I fear my father might be showing early signs of it.

Losing my mind is one of my greatest fears, having watched so many in my family suffer through that.

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14 minutes ago, Acer said:

I just looked at the ensembles.  To say the 18Z was a cold outlier wouldn't be giving it enough credit.

ens_image.php?geoid=136221&var=201&run=18&date=2021-02-01&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

As TWL would say, still a lot of magic 8-balls in there. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Any updates on the EURO weeklies?

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Any updates on the EURO weeklies?

-PNA/-NAO well into March, mean is cool/wet in PNW region thru the end of the run.

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A few years ago one of my co workers friends died of a brain aneurysm, completely healthy late 30’s was in the kitchen with his wife talking about dinner, she was at the sink talking to him and in mid sentence he just stops talking and she instantly heard the bang on the floor of him dropping...Ever since then I have been quite worried about that happening as well. 

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14 minutes ago, Phil said:

My family has a history of Alzheimer’s/dementia. Particularly the men. My grandfather had it real rough, and I fear my father might be showing early signs of it.

Losing my mind is one of my greatest fears, having watched so many in my family suffer through that.

My wife’s grandmother died of Alzheimer’s almost two years ago now. Its an absolute nightmare to watch happen. 

I wouldn’t wish it on anyone.

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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

A few years ago one of my co workers friends died of a brain aneurysm, completely healthy late 30’s was in the kitchen with his wife talking about dinner, she was at the sink talking to him and in mid sentence he just stops talking and she instantly heard the bang on the floor of him dropping...Ever since then I have been quite worried about that happening as well. 

You truly aren’t guaranteed tomorrow in this life no matter how healthy you might think you are. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Warm season rainfall-5.26”

+80s-26

+85s-9

+90s-3

+100s-2

Highest temp-106

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3 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

My wife’s grandmother died of Alzheimer’s almost two years ago now. Its an absolute nightmare to watch happen. 

I wouldn’t wish it on anyone.

I’m sorry man. 

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20 minutes ago, Acer said:

I take medication for an aortic aneurysm and have been for 6 years.  That baby pops and you had better be on an operating table within a few minutes or it’s all over.  

So does my mom, she gets it checked every 6 months or so to make sure it hasn’t changed in size. My grandpa died of that back in January of 1997 but it was undiagnosed until he was rushed in, they attempted surgery but so many years of high blood pressure pretty much turned his vessels into goo and they were unable to attach a stent or whatever it was to the rest of the aorta. Seems much more manageable if caught early and monitored. 

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59 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Same. I worry about having a brain aneurysm. It can happen to anyone with good health at any time of life. You're just minding your business, and then suddenly a crippling headache, then loss of consciousness, then either death or serious, irreversible brain injury. My family has a history of heart/blood problems and my grandfather died of an aneurysm.

Outside of living healthily there's not much I can do about it, so it's best I just keep on keeping on and think about the snowmaps more than anything else.

I take a baby aspirin every day and have been doing so for about a decade.   I was not instructed to do this but they talk about aspirin being a miracle drug so I figured it was a good thing.   Aspirin keeps inflammation down and inflammation is what can cause so many bad things over time... like heart attack and stroke.     Not sure the baby aspirin a day will keep me alive but there does not seem to be any downside to it.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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31 minutes ago, Phil said:

-PNA/-NAO well into March, mean is cool/wet in PNW region thru the end of the run.

Think this has been promised on extended weeklies since early December. Never come to fruition. Nina climatology actually favors it now but we'll see.

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One big surprise on he 18z ensemble was 5 really cold members showing up between the 6th and the 10th.  Kind of interesting.  It's also worth noting it was another very cold run for the control.  The operational and control are both dropping below -10 on at least half of the runs.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Multiple 30”+ reports now, with at least 20hrs of snow to go. This could be an all-timer up there. 

Sucks watching it from afar, but those radar loops are mesmerizing.

 

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30 minutes ago, Phil said:

Multiple 30”+ reports now, with at least 20hrs of snow to go. This could be an all-timer up there. 

Sucks watching it from afar, but those radar loops are mesmerizing.

 

Well that certainly makes me feel better about this shitty climo 😒

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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About 0.65" of rain on the day. Temp was 47 at daybreak and has slowly dropped to its current 43. Airmass is gradually cooling, possibility still exists for a couple inches of snow tomorrow night. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just noticed there is a winter weather advisory up for tomorrow night. 5-10" above 2000', 1-4" above 1500'. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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51 minutes ago, MossMan said:

So does my mom, she gets it checked every 6 months or so to make sure it hasn’t changed in size. My grandpa died of that back in January of 1997 but it was undiagnosed until he was rushed in, they attempted surgery but so many years of high blood pressure pretty much turned his vessels into goo and they were unable to attach a stent or whatever it was to the rest of the aorta. Seems much more manageable if caught early and monitored. 

I go for a echocardiogram every year.  Yes, I was fortunate to have a thorough look at my heart after I started having heart rhythm problems, If I hadn't had that done I would have no idea.  I'm not supposed to lift anything over 20 pounds or do anything very strenuous.  I don't really follow the restrictions to the letter but I lam careful about lifting too much.  Since I'm not supposed to shovel snow I expect you and your X300 will be on hand sometime later this month. 🤪

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55 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Currently 46 degrees after a high of 47. Low of 42.

.50” so far on the day, 8.22” for the year. 

You came back and beat me for January rainfall!  Congratulations!

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1 hour ago, MossMan said:

A few years ago one of my co workers friends died of a brain aneurysm, completely healthy late 30’s was in the kitchen with his wife talking about dinner, she was at the sink talking to him and in mid sentence he just stops talking and she instantly heard the bang on the floor of him dropping...Ever since then I have been quite worried about that happening as well. 

My best friends little sister died the same way at 22. She was in the living room playing with her husband and kids on a Saturday night and bam.....dropped dead. She was the sweetest, most loving person I have ever met. The memory of the funeral and sadness has stayed with me since. It didn't teach me to worry about the same happening to me, instead it taught me to cherish every moment. I wish it never happened but I am a better person today having experienced the horror of it all.

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19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just noticed there is a winter weather advisory up for tomorrow night. 5-10" above 2000', 1-4" above 1500'. 

Just think, most of us are within half a mile of having more snow than we can imagine every winter.  

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8 minutes ago, Acer said:

Just think, most of us are within half a mile of having more snow than we can imagine every winter.  

Ruins the magic of it to have to seek it out. I want once to be able to look outside while the drifts pile up, like the entirety of NY/NJ is likely experiencing right now.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

I take a baby aspirin every day and have been doing so for about a decade.   I was not instructed to do this but they talk about aspirin being a miracle drug so I figured it was a good thing.   Aspirin keeps inflammation down and inflammation is what can cause so many bad things over time... like heart attack and stroke.     Not sure the baby aspirin a day will keep me alive but there does not seem to be any downside to it.  

I do as well. Another heart healthy thing to do is down 2 glasses of water in the morning before you do anything.  Keep that blood viscosity in check.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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50 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Well that certainly makes me feel better about this shitty climo 😒

You're young, get out why you can before you grow roots.  Western Oregon and Washington is a living hell for a snow lover. I'm 48 years old and can't wait to get the f.ck out of here.  

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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