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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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Big improvement on the EPS snowfall projections.  Close to 4 inches on the mean for SEA and 6 inches on the control.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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I just experienced the craziest day of my life. Normal, routine doctor's visit quickly spiraled into a seven hour stay in the ER for a MRI scan to check for malignant tumors or multiple sclerosis. Tha

Downvote this post if you want snow.

Good morning,  As you know, back in late December I decided to end my jovial "ranting" here among you soulless bastard's to focus on more personal matters.  Well despite my better judgement

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31 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

That would be amazing to watch, but a lot of work to clear.  I can only imagine the berm on my driveway after such a big snow.  And the berms are always compact and icy, even if it is a relatively dry snow.

Feb 2019 was completely overwhelming here. We had 140" of snow and one big rainstorm right in the middle of it all. 

The plow would berm you in 3-5 times a day. Brutal. 

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18 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

February 1936, March 1960, and December 1983? At least to a 21st century extent, the pattern looks kinda similar and none of those were super -PNA driven.

March 3, 1960 is subtly one of the most incredible winter weather days in U.S. history. Literally the entire northern tier of states was under a snowstorm at the same time. 

Thanks. 1983 came to mind, but seemed like there was still greeter blocking on the Pacific side (-EPO) for that one.

Low. Solar.

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Biggest 24 hour snowfall I’ve seen here at my house was 9” from noon February 8th to about 10am February 9th. Even that was pretty awesome. Then 5” in 2 hours the next night...and 6” the day after that! 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-63

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Bruh...

1613088000-bM0zPbFU7vs.png

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 49 (Most recent: Apr 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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Anybody else here never experienced an Arctic front?

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 49 (Most recent: Apr 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

18z NAM looks a bit further east vs. 12z through Monday AM.

The problem with the NAM is it gets such a cold bias late in the run that subsequent runs have little choice but to pull back.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Anybody else here never experienced an Arctic front?

You could still get one out of this.  To answer your question I've seen quite a few.  Seattle does better than NW OR in that regard if your talking fronts from the north.

The one in Nov 2010 was pretty amazing.  It was about 35 when the snow began an had plunged to 22 during the heart of the storm.  Flash freeze for sure.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You could still get one out of this.  To answer your question I've seen quite a few.  Seattle does better than NW OR in that regard if your talking fronts from the north.

Anywhere. I've been to some other cold-prone spots but had bad luck. Or I wasn't here when one impacted the south valley. Again, just bad luck.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 49 (Most recent: Apr 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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Just now, Snowdrift said:

Move to Spokane. This will be an arctic front with flurries and gusty winds.

I'd love our family to move anywhere that has an actual winter, but unfortunately that will never happen. I'm very grateful for my living situation. The weather is the only bummer for a snow and cold-lover like me. I still have tons of positives in life, especially sports.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 49 (Most recent: Apr 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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8 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Thanks. 1983 came to mind, but seemed like there was still greeter blocking on the Pacific side for that one.

Yeah, there definitely was actually. That was a pretty crazy AK block. Barrow hit 32 on the 23rd! Just led to more of a bleed in from the PV in Central Canada that eventually migrated eastward and spread out longitudinally.

12221983.PNG.5450d6d8ea17607598f8dd493774a8cc.PNG

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ncepreanal/data/1983/12/reanal_1983122400.gif

12241983.PNG.1597efd698bac974c1df5acb34f46d9a.PNG

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The arctic fronts I remember are Dec 1990, Jan 1996, February 1995, January 2004, December 2008.

Some of the more back door blasts are more of a slow bleed. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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6 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Biggest 24 hour snowfall I’ve seen here at my house was 9” from noon February 8th to about 10am February 9th. Even that was pretty awesome. Then 5” in 2 hours the next night...and 6” the day after that! 

That was really crazy how the warm nose stalled in that storm.  I live just across from N Tacoma in Gig Harbor at 370' and we ended up with 17".  Even a mile down the road from me it rained for hrs while we were still getting snow.  About 5 miles North of my place in Olalla there was probably another 5 or 6".  Never changed over in Port Orchard.  

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The arctic fronts I remember are Dec 1990, Jan 1996, February 1995, January 2004, December 2008.

Some of the more back door blasts are more of a slow bleed. 

Dec 1990 and Dec 2008 had vicious winds.

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Arctic fronts in Oklahoma were pretty common. The vast majority had no accumulating snow. 12/17/16 had a tremendous arctic front in NE Oklahoma. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, Snowdrift said:

Dec 1990 and Dec 2008 had vicious winds.

I think December 2008 was the last arctic front with snow in the Willamette valley. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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15 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Feb 2019 was completely overwhelming here. We had 140" of snow and one big rainstorm right in the middle of it all. 

The plow would berm you in 3-5 times a day. Brutal. 

Rain in the middle cut down on the snow, but probably made it pretty bad to move.  We had about a foot a few weeks ago, and it turned to rain before I could get to it due to my job, and my snowblower was not very effective, couldn't get a grip on the driveway, which has a bit of a slope to it.  

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think December 2008 was the last arctic front with snow in the Willamette valley. 

Well... Maybe November 2010, but amounts were mostly under 1” down here. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 hours ago, Requiem said:

Wow, ya'll get your cold, I get my strong easterlies, all is right with this run 🥰

You really love wind. 😂

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1 minute ago, luvssnow_seattle said:

Just moved to Spokane and I can hardly wait!!!

Spokane and CdA get more wind than Colville. Outflow comes down from Sandpoint into CdA and west into Spokane. 

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9 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, there definitely was actually. That was a pretty crazy AK block. Barrow hit 32 on the 23rd! Just led to more of a bleed in from the PV in Central Canada that eventually migrated eastward and spread out longitudinally.

12221983.PNG.5450d6d8ea17607598f8dd493774a8cc.PNG

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ncepreanal/data/1983/12/reanal_1983122400.gif

12241983.PNG.1597efd698bac974c1df5acb34f46d9a.PNG

I am guessing that the low to the SW in the bottom right frame was the one that was supposed to produce a major snowstorm for the PNW for Christmas Eve night and Christmas morning.   Low went too far to the North and it rained.  Brutal, especially because it was late Christmas Eve when it was supposed to be heavy snow.  Just an awful feeling when I heard the pitter patter of rain on the roof that night!

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Arctic fronts in Oklahoma were pretty common. The vast majority had no accumulating snow. 12/17/16 had a tremendous arctic front in NE Oklahoma. 

I experienced one at Ft Sill in December 1996. Their weather is so changeable. It felt like the temperature dropped 30 degrees in a few minutes.

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I really want to go all-in given the favorable trends across all model camps, but given the fickle pattern and really unusual evolution to get cold, I just can't quite do it yet. I think if models show this cold to very cold solution by Saturday 00z I will be fully and completely in. 100% confidence. Until then. Cautiously optimistic! C'MON!!!!
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That 12z ECMWF run was top tier for cold advection out there. Amazing how fragile this progression is..just the tiniest of changes to TPV structure in AK/Yukon 48hrs out could make the difference between a full fledged arctic assault and a complete miss.

The inflection point appears to be D2, sometime on Sunday. If we hold on until 00z runs Sunday, should be good, as volatility likely decreases substantially at that point.

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2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

North Whatcom County can be brutal during a true arctic blast.  Nothing like 70MPH winds with a temp in the teens.  And if there is snow, they get huge snowdrifts.

My grandparents experienced the blizzard of 1950 up there. They were impressed, and they both grew up in North Dakota.

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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think December 2008 was the last arctic front with snow in the Willamette valley. 

I'd say February 2018 for me. Only time I can remember getting dumped on with snow with the front coming down from the North.

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<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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4 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Does CDA get the brutal wind chills?  I have friends that will be in CDA next Tuesday through Wednesday.

At times they do. It depends on a number of factors. Dec 2008 had really strong winds. 2010-11 had two blizzard warnings. CdA sits on the Rathdrum Prairie in the middle of the Purcell Trench. Winds in the past have gusted over 60 mph out of the NNE during arctic outbreaks.

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10 minutes ago, JBolin said:

Whatever happened to that kid from PDX who had a hard-on for wind?

Yo that’s me haha 

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

I'm a bit skeptical of a major PNW cold wave with such weak support from the Pacific block. I'm sure it's happened before, but has to be pretty rare.

It’s also one of the strongest -NAO/Baffin Bay blocks on record. The fact it’s retrograding at such a high amplitude could compensate for the lackadaisical Pacific.

If the block were prograding, I’d agree with you. In this case, it’s retrograding.

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1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

I am guessing that the low to the SW in the bottom right frame was the one that was supposed to produce a major snowstorm for the PNW for Christmas Eve night and Christmas morning.   Low went too far to the North and it rained.  Brutal, especially because it was late Christmas Eve when it was supposed to be heavy snow.  Just an awful feeling when I heard the pitter patter of rain on the roof that night!

The jet undercut it on the 24th into the 25th, yes.

Of course that low actually did produce a significant snowfall for western OR. Widespread 3-6" from Medford north to Salem. White Christmas for Tiger!

What screwed Portland and Seattle with that wasn't the temps so much as the historic mountain wave event that transpired with the high pressure to the east and the Pacific low to the west. That was the event that famously produced 100+mph winds in Enumclaw, with 20 degree temps! By the time the precip began to accumulate through the dry air, it had warmed aloft and produced rain and freezing rain, before changing back to wet snow on the 26th.

Rob also asked earlier what the lowest dewpoints on the westside were and 1983 may be your winner. SEA had a dewpoint of -22 on the 24th. Virga alert! Pretty incredible pattern.

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5 hours ago, JBolin said:

Anybody (Rob, Jim, Phil, etc) have any idea what type of pattern elicited the nearly 4" of snow in San Francisco in (I believe) 1886?

I’ll check to be sure, but iirc that was -NPO/-NAO.

Edit: Nope. -WPO/-PNA.

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3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The jet undercut it on the 24th into the 25th, yes.

Of course that low actually did produce a significant snowfall for western OR. Widespread 3-6" from Medford north to Salem. White Christmas for Tiger!

What screwed Portland and Seattle with that wasn't the temps so much as the historic mountain wave event that transpired with the high pressure to the east and the Pacific low to the west. That was the event that famously produced 100+mph winds in Enumclaw, with 20 degree temps! By the time the precip began to accumulate through the dry air, it had warmed aloft and produced rain and freezing rain, before changing back to wet snow on the 26th.

Rob also asked earlier what the lowest dewpoints on the westside were and 1983 may be your winner. SEA had a dewpoint of -22 on the 24th. Virga alert! Pretty incredible pattern.

Thanks, I didn't know exactly what screwed things up.  Glad though that parts of Oregon got the White Christmas though.

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9 minutes ago, Snowdrift said:

At times they do. It depends on a number of factors. Dec 2008 had really strong winds. 2010-11 had two blizzard warnings. CdA sits on the Rathdrum Prairie in the middle of the Purcell Trench. Winds in the past have gusted over 60 mph out of the NNE during arctic outbreaks.

Thanks. I will watch it closely for my friends.  Spokane NWS should have a good handle on it.

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6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The jet undercut it on the 24th into the 25th, yes.

Of course that low actually did produce a significant snowfall for western OR. Widespread 3-6" from Medford north to Salem. White Christmas for Tiger!

What screwed Portland and Seattle with that wasn't the temps so much as the historic mountain wave event that transpired with the high pressure to the east and the Pacific low to the west. That was the event that famously produced 100+mph winds in Enumclaw, with 20 degree temps! By the time the precip began to accumulate through the dry air, it had warmed aloft and produced rain and freezing rain, before changing back to wet snow on the 26th.

Rob also asked earlier what the lowest dewpoints on the westside were and 1983 may be your winner. SEA had a dewpoint of -22 on the 24th. Virga alert! Pretty incredible pattern.

Those CCGs are a thing of beauty for here.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 49 (Most recent: Apr 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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2 minutes ago, JBolin said:

Seriously?

 

100% serious 😅

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

I'm sure it's possible... unusual pattern. Do you know of any historical examples where a far west-based -NAO worked out like that? Without a significant block on the Pacific side?

January 1969 was -NAO dominant. I think it was more common in the 19th century though.

Things were very different back then in terms of teleconnections and wave train seasonality. Was very common to get large blocks over Hudson Bay/NE Canada suppressing TPVs all the way to SW BC. Very suppressed jet, low heights from W-US/Canada, and out into the Pacific. Doesn’t really happen that way anymore. 

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