February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[TT-SEA 4239]

Total snow per 18Z GFS through 132 hours.  

[GHweatherChris 3650]

Tonights runs are not gonna be good if the  pattern from the last 5 days of changing outcomes continues.

[snow_wizard 12228]

Nice Fraser outflow and then a northerly gradient to bring the low level cold air south.  Nice!

[BLI snowman 6877]

498 thickness into NE WA. Nice.

[einsteinjr 106]

I know this question has been asked before, but is there any documentation on the differences between 6z/18z and the 0z/12z?  My wild assumption is that all runs are the same and the differences between the scheduled runs just come from the starting inputs.

[Timmy 2214]

Way more of a n-s gradient, much warmer 850s in Oregon at hour 140.

[Esquimalt 542]

INCOMING!!! 

[snow_wizard 12228]

The PV and the chances for serious cold are much better on this runs vs the 12z.  Big potential.

[TT-SEA 4239]

And some kind of funky snowstorm about to begin on Thursday as moisture moves straight through the ridge offshore.   Buyer beware. 

 

[Phil 12092]

Pacific jet is a bit stronger this run. Could shorten the duration of the cold. Or it could make for a s**toad of snowfall. Lol

[nwsnow 2771]

[TacomaWaWx 4623]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

And some kind of funky snowstorm about to begin on Thursday as moisture moves straight through the ridge offshore.   Buyer beware. 

 

Yeah kinda seems like a detail that may not be there at all next run considering it wasn’t there before either. 

[TigerWoodsLibido 5758]

Looks like the dickbag for the south valley.

[Phil 12092]

Yeah, that’s some serious upper level cold along/east of the Cascades.

[wxmet 2015]

Western Washington snowstorm on Thursday.

[BLI snowman 6877]

That trough axis scooting another 50 miles to the west would make all the difference this run. Would be a lot of snow.

[Kolk1604 880]

1 minute ago, wxmet said:

Western Washington snowstorm on Thursday.

Yeah and this is at 4 PM

 

[snow_wizard 12228]

I'm betting this is holding back the cold air too much based on how close hat PV goes.  Even so...respectable cold.  Way better than the 12z in a lot of ways.

[snow_wizard 12228]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah kinda seems like a detail that may not be there at all next run considering it wasn’t there before either. 

The theme is very good though.  You seem way too cautious here.  The trends are obvious.

[TacomaWaWx 4623]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I'm betting this is holding back the cold air too much based on how close hat PV goes.  Even so...respectable cold.  Way better than the 12z in a lot of ways.

I think that little snow event on Thursday may not pan out and the cold stays entrenched longer. 

[Requiem 2649]

Portland has the Gorge to keep things chilly but I’d ideally like to see the cold sink a bit further south to give the rest of the valley some fun.

[TacomaWaWx 4623]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The theme is very good though.  You seem way too cautious here.  The trends are obvious.

lol cautions is usually a good thing in these situations. Things are definitely looking really good now though...my confidence is building with every good run we’re seeing. 

[nwsnow 2771]

 

[snow_wizard 12228]

I'm thinking the 18z ensemble will be quite cold.  The models are coming into reasonable agreement today.  Major back digging of cold pushed by the crazy NAO block.

[wxmet 2015]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I think that little snow event on Thursday may not pan out and the cold stays entrenched longer. 

The ECMWF has a snow event next Wednesday with an Arctic front. Will be interesting to see if it trends more amplified like the GFS.

[Prairiedog 598]

On Dec 8, 2013 PDX hit 12.  It warmed up a bit but Feb 7, '14  it got cold again and snowed.  Had about 6".  That's been my last good cold and snow together.

[Kolk1604 880]

If these temps and snow verifies, It's going to cause problems. I see a lot of stranded people or forever to get home! 

[snow_wizard 12228]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I think that little snow event on Thursday may not pan out and the cold stays entrenched longer. 

Yeah....that detail will have to be worked out.  Arctic front snow is the best bet.

[nwsnow 2771]

[BLI snowman 6877]

Sleet storm!

[wxmet 2015]

And another storm on Saturday incase you didn’t get enough snow on Thursday

 

 

[Frontal Snowsquall 2622]

1 minute ago, nwsnow said:

Region wide event but hopefully snow instead of ice.

[Phil 12092]

Ouch, that’s a major ice storm pattern for someone in E-Canada/US. Not sure if anyone has watched those documentaries on the 1998/1999 ice storms in Canada, but verbatim the 18z GFS is close to a worst case scenario.

[AlTahoe 418]

Last GFS run showed no storms for Cali but the Euro did. Looks like the GFS is starting to cave to the Euro  

[snow_wizard 12228]

In general it's simply amazing how far south everything is going to be pushed by that block over the next 10 days.  PV very far south for a long time. We still have a shot at some REAL cold here.

[TacomaWaWx 4623]

I could definitely live with the latest gfs verifying. We will see if we have a trend towards moderation and snowier overrunning solutions or colder drier more entrenched solutions. 

[Kolk1604 880]

Here's 7PM Friday. 48 hours now with temps below 30 

[Frontal Snowsquall 2622]

3 minutes ago, wxmet said:

And another storm on Saturday incase you didn’t get enough snow on Thursday

 

 

That's more like it! Somebody is going to get pounded hard late next week.

[JBolin 1110]

Just now, Phil said:

That’s a major ice storm pattern for someone in E-Canada/US. Not sure if anyone has watched those documentaries on the 1998/1999 ice storms in Canada, but verbatim the 18z GFS is close to a worst case.

Yea, just your average hell-scape of HTL towers collapsing under the immense weight of ice, trees strewn everywhere caked in ice, travel severely impacted and freezing temps with no power. 

No thanks

[jakerepp 1087]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

In general it's simply amazing how far south everything is going to be pushed by that block over the next 10 days.  PV very far south for a long time. We still have a shot at some REAL cold here.

Define 'REAL cold' for me...

Sub 30 highs? Cause right now, it looks like we're in for some 33-37 highs, which I consider pretty darn cold for early/mid February!

[wxmet 2015]

So far snowing for 24 hours by 204hr on the GFS 18z. Are we NYC now??

[nwsnow 2771]

Not too worried a low out near HR180 but yeah too much warm air advection here with that track. Would be some pretty crazy event though. 

[Phil 12092]

3 hours ago, GHweatherChris said:

I have a feeling the 18Z GFS is going to be in rehab today.

Oops?

[Snowdrift 413]

56 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I was in Oregon in December 2008, but the arctic front they had come through NE Oklahoma in Dec 08' was absolutely insane. Bartlesville had a 74/14 day and a 14/8 day the following day. 

That's a cold front

[wxmet 2015]

6 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

Not too worried a low out near HR180 but yeah too much warm air advection here with that track. Would be some pretty crazy event though. 

Isentropic snows are the best snows. Sometimes you have to toe the line.

[Omegaraptor 2440]

Pretty great run but hopefully we can move that Arctic air just a little farther south and drop those 850 temps over Portland to give us snow rather than ice.

[JW8 40]

Looks like the OPER is right in line with the mean through 2/10. 

[Kolk1604 880]

Should I post this? From Wednesday to Saturday 4 PM

[Phil 12092]

It’s almost 60°F and I’m under a Winter Storm Watch.

Ma’ Nature is pissed about something.

[TacomaWaWx 4623]

1 minute ago, wxmet said:

Isentropic snows are the best snows. Sometimes you have toe the line.

Yeah we will see...shorter range is what’s important at this point getting the cold air first. The snow details after the original cold air intrusion being almost a week out will probably change multiple times the next few days. We will see if we go cold and dry or moderate with a big snow to end it.