TT-SEA 4239 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Total snow per 18Z GFS through 132 hours. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to post Share on other sites
GHweatherChris 3650 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Tonights runs are not gonna be good if the pattern from the last 5 days of changing outcomes continues. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
snow_wizard 12228 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Nice Fraser outflow and then a northerly gradient to bring the low level cold air south. Nice! 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2020-21 stats Total Snowfall = 7.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5 Total Hail = 0.0" Coldest Low = 23 Lows 32 or below = 54 Highs 32 or below = 2 Lows 20 or below = 0 Highs 40 or below = 5 Link to post Share on other sites
BLI snowman 6877 Posted February 5 Author Report Share Posted February 5 498 thickness into NE WA. Nice. 3 Link to post Share on other sites
einsteinjr 106 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 I know this question has been asked before, but is there any documentation on the differences between 6z/18z and the 0z/12z? My wild assumption is that all runs are the same and the differences between the scheduled runs just come from the starting inputs. Link to post Share on other sites
Timmy 2214 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Way more of a n-s gradient, much warmer 850s in Oregon at hour 140. 2 Link to post Share on other sites
Esquimalt 542 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 INCOMING!!! Link to post Share on other sites
snow_wizard 12228 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 The PV and the chances for serious cold are much better on this runs vs the 12z. Big potential. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2020-21 stats Total Snowfall = 7.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5 Total Hail = 0.0" Coldest Low = 23 Lows 32 or below = 54 Highs 32 or below = 2 Lows 20 or below = 0 Highs 40 or below = 5 Link to post Share on other sites
TT-SEA 4239 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 And some kind of funky snowstorm about to begin on Thursday as moisture moves straight through the ridge offshore. Buyer beware. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to post Share on other sites
Phil 12092 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Pacific jet is a bit stronger this run. Could shorten the duration of the cold. Or it could make for a s**toad of snowfall. Lol Personal Weather Station: NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=F3819&num=168&banner=NONE Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62/graph/2019-08-23/2019-08-23/daily Link to post Share on other sites
TacomaWaWx 4623 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Just now, TT-SEA said: And some kind of funky snowstorm about to begin on Thursday as moisture moves straight through the ridge offshore. Buyer beware. Yeah kinda seems like a detail that may not be there at all next run considering it wasn’t there before either. Warm Season Stats +80s-0 +85s-0 +90s-0 Monthly Rainfall-0.39” Warm Season Rainfall-0.39” Warmest high temp-66 Link to post Share on other sites
TigerWoodsLibido 5758 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Looks like the dickbag for the south valley. 1 Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats: Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21) Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26) Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021) Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24) Total snowfall: 0.0" Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7" Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @357jerseys4hope 24 Link to post Share on other sites
Phil 12092 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Yeah, that’s some serious upper level cold along/east of the Cascades. 1 Personal Weather Station: NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=F3819&num=168&banner=NONE Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62/graph/2019-08-23/2019-08-23/daily Link to post Share on other sites
Meteorologist wxmet 2015 Posted February 5 Meteorologist Report Share Posted February 5 Western Washington snowstorm on Thursday. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
BLI snowman 6877 Posted February 5 Author Report Share Posted February 5 That trough axis scooting another 50 miles to the west would make all the difference this run. Would be a lot of snow. 2 Link to post Share on other sites
Kolk1604 880 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, wxmet said: Western Washington snowstorm on Thursday. Yeah and this is at 4 PM 1 2 1 Link to post Share on other sites
snow_wizard 12228 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 I'm betting this is holding back the cold air too much based on how close hat PV goes. Even so...respectable cold. Way better than the 12z in a lot of ways. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2020-21 stats Total Snowfall = 7.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5 Total Hail = 0.0" Coldest Low = 23 Lows 32 or below = 54 Highs 32 or below = 2 Lows 20 or below = 0 Highs 40 or below = 5 Link to post Share on other sites
snow_wizard 12228 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Yeah kinda seems like a detail that may not be there at all next run considering it wasn’t there before either. The theme is very good though. You seem way too cautious here. The trends are obvious. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2020-21 stats Total Snowfall = 7.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5 Total Hail = 0.0" Coldest Low = 23 Lows 32 or below = 54 Highs 32 or below = 2 Lows 20 or below = 0 Highs 40 or below = 5 Link to post Share on other sites
TacomaWaWx 4623 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Just now, snow_wizard said: I'm betting this is holding back the cold air too much based on how close hat PV goes. Even so...respectable cold. Way better than the 12z in a lot of ways. I think that little snow event on Thursday may not pan out and the cold stays entrenched longer. Warm Season Stats +80s-0 +85s-0 +90s-0 Monthly Rainfall-0.39” Warm Season Rainfall-0.39” Warmest high temp-66 Link to post Share on other sites
Requiem 2649 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Portland has the Gorge to keep things chilly but I’d ideally like to see the cold sink a bit further south to give the rest of the valley some fun. 1 1 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to post Share on other sites
TacomaWaWx 4623 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Just now, snow_wizard said: The theme is very good though. You seem way too cautious here. The trends are obvious. lol cautions is usually a good thing in these situations. Things are definitely looking really good now though...my confidence is building with every good run we’re seeing. Warm Season Stats +80s-0 +85s-0 +90s-0 Monthly Rainfall-0.39” Warm Season Rainfall-0.39” Warmest high temp-66 Link to post Share on other sites
snow_wizard 12228 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 I'm thinking the 18z ensemble will be quite cold. The models are coming into reasonable agreement today. Major back digging of cold pushed by the crazy NAO block. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2020-21 stats Total Snowfall = 7.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5 Total Hail = 0.0" Coldest Low = 23 Lows 32 or below = 54 Highs 32 or below = 2 Lows 20 or below = 0 Highs 40 or below = 5 Link to post Share on other sites
Meteorologist wxmet 2015 Posted February 5 Meteorologist Report Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said: I think that little snow event on Thursday may not pan out and the cold stays entrenched longer. The ECMWF has a snow event next Wednesday with an Arctic front. Will be interesting to see if it trends more amplified like the GFS. Link to post Share on other sites
Prairiedog 598 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 On Dec 8, 2013 PDX hit 12. It warmed up a bit but Feb 7, '14 it got cold again and snowed. Had about 6". That's been my last good cold and snow together. 7 Link to post Share on other sites
Kolk1604 880 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 If these temps and snow verifies, It's going to cause problems. I see a lot of stranded people or forever to get home! 2 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites
snow_wizard 12228 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: I think that little snow event on Thursday may not pan out and the cold stays entrenched longer. Yeah....that detail will have to be worked out. Arctic front snow is the best bet. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2020-21 stats Total Snowfall = 7.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5 Total Hail = 0.0" Coldest Low = 23 Lows 32 or below = 54 Highs 32 or below = 2 Lows 20 or below = 0 Highs 40 or below = 5 Link to post Share on other sites
BLI snowman 6877 Posted February 5 Author Report Share Posted February 5 Sleet storm! 2 Link to post Share on other sites
Meteorologist wxmet 2015 Posted February 5 Meteorologist Report Share Posted February 5 And another storm on Saturday incase you didn’t get enough snow on Thursday 4 2 Link to post Share on other sites
Frontal Snowsquall 2622 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, nwsnow said: Region wide event but hopefully snow instead of ice. 1 <p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font> Link to post Share on other sites
Phil 12092 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Ouch, that’s a major ice storm pattern for someone in E-Canada/US. Not sure if anyone has watched those documentaries on the 1998/1999 ice storms in Canada, but verbatim the 18z GFS is close to a worst case scenario. 2 Personal Weather Station: NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=F3819&num=168&banner=NONE Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62/graph/2019-08-23/2019-08-23/daily Link to post Share on other sites
AlTahoe 418 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Last GFS run showed no storms for Cali but the Euro did. Looks like the GFS is starting to cave to the Euro 1 Link to post Share on other sites
snow_wizard 12228 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 In general it's simply amazing how far south everything is going to be pushed by that block over the next 10 days. PV very far south for a long time. We still have a shot at some REAL cold here. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2020-21 stats Total Snowfall = 7.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5 Total Hail = 0.0" Coldest Low = 23 Lows 32 or below = 54 Highs 32 or below = 2 Lows 20 or below = 0 Highs 40 or below = 5 Link to post Share on other sites
TacomaWaWx 4623 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 I could definitely live with the latest gfs verifying. We will see if we have a trend towards moderation and snowier overrunning solutions or colder drier more entrenched solutions. 1 Warm Season Stats +80s-0 +85s-0 +90s-0 Monthly Rainfall-0.39” Warm Season Rainfall-0.39” Warmest high temp-66 Link to post Share on other sites
Kolk1604 880 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Here's 7PM Friday. 48 hours now with temps below 30 3 Link to post Share on other sites
Frontal Snowsquall 2622 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 3 minutes ago, wxmet said: And another storm on Saturday incase you didn’t get enough snow on Thursday That's more like it! Somebody is going to get pounded hard late next week. 3 1 <p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font> Link to post Share on other sites
JBolin 1110 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Just now, Phil said: That’s a major ice storm pattern for someone in E-Canada/US. Not sure if anyone has watched those documentaries on the 1998/1999 ice storms in Canada, but verbatim the 18z GFS is close to a worst case. Yea, just your average hell-scape of HTL towers collapsing under the immense weight of ice, trees strewn everywhere caked in ice, travel severely impacted and freezing temps with no power. No thanks 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites
jakerepp 1087 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: In general it's simply amazing how far south everything is going to be pushed by that block over the next 10 days. PV very far south for a long time. We still have a shot at some REAL cold here. Define 'REAL cold' for me... Sub 30 highs? Cause right now, it looks like we're in for some 33-37 highs, which I consider pretty darn cold for early/mid February! 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Meteorologist wxmet 2015 Posted February 5 Meteorologist Report Share Posted February 5 So far snowing for 24 hours by 204hr on the GFS 18z. Are we NYC now?? 2 1 Link to post Share on other sites
nwsnow 2771 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Not too worried a low out near HR180 but yeah too much warm air advection here with that track. Would be some pretty crazy event though. Link to post Share on other sites
Phil 12092 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 3 hours ago, GHweatherChris said: I have a feeling the 18Z GFS is going to be in rehab today. Oops? 2 1 2 1 Personal Weather Station: NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=F3819&num=168&banner=NONE Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62/graph/2019-08-23/2019-08-23/daily Link to post Share on other sites
Snowdrift 413 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 56 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I was in Oregon in December 2008, but the arctic front they had come through NE Oklahoma in Dec 08' was absolutely insane. Bartlesville had a 74/14 day and a 14/8 day the following day. That's a cold front Link to post Share on other sites
Meteorologist wxmet 2015 Posted February 5 Meteorologist Report Share Posted February 5 6 minutes ago, nwsnow said: Not too worried a low out near HR180 but yeah too much warm air advection here with that track. Would be some pretty crazy event though. Isentropic snows are the best snows. Sometimes you have to toe the line. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Omegaraptor 2440 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Pretty great run but hopefully we can move that Arctic air just a little farther south and drop those 850 temps over Portland to give us snow rather than ice. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
JW8 40 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Looks like the OPER is right in line with the mean through 2/10. Link to post Share on other sites
Kolk1604 880 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Should I post this? From Wednesday to Saturday 4 PM 3 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Phil 12092 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 It’s almost 60°F and I’m under a Winter Storm Watch. Ma’ Nature is pissed about something. 2 1 1 Personal Weather Station: NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=F3819&num=168&banner=NONE Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62/graph/2019-08-23/2019-08-23/daily Link to post Share on other sites
TacomaWaWx 4623 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, wxmet said: Isentropic snows are the best snows. Sometimes you have toe the line. Yeah we will see...shorter range is what’s important at this point getting the cold air first. The snow details after the original cold air intrusion being almost a week out will probably change multiple times the next few days. We will see if we go cold and dry or moderate with a big snow to end it. 1 Warm Season Stats +80s-0 +85s-0 +90s-0 Monthly Rainfall-0.39” Warm Season Rainfall-0.39” Warmest high temp-66 Link to post Share on other sites
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