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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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Total snow per 18Z GFS through 132 hours.  

snodpc_acc.us_nw (7).png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I just experienced the craziest day of my life. Normal, routine doctor's visit quickly spiraled into a seven hour stay in the ER for a MRI scan to check for malignant tumors or multiple sclerosis. Tha

Downvote this post if you want snow.

Good morning,  As you know, back in late December I decided to end my jovial "ranting" here among you soulless bastard's to focus on more personal matters.  Well despite my better judgement

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Nice Fraser outflow and then a northerly gradient to bring the low level cold air south.  Nice!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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I know this question has been asked before, but is there any documentation on the differences between 6z/18z and the 0z/12z?  My wild assumption is that all runs are the same and the differences between the scheduled runs just come from the starting inputs.

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The PV and the chances for serious cold are much better on this runs vs the 12z.  Big potential.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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And some kind of funky snowstorm about to begin on Thursday as moisture moves straight through the ridge offshore.   Buyer beware. 

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Pacific jet is a bit stronger this run. Could shorten the duration of the cold. Or it could make for a s**toad of snowfall. Lol

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

And some kind of funky snowstorm about to begin on Thursday as moisture moves straight through the ridge offshore.   Buyer beware. 

 

Yeah kinda seems like a detail that may not be there at all next run considering it wasn’t there before either. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-63

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Looks like the dickbag for the south valley.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 49 (Most recent: Apr 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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I'm betting this is holding back the cold air too much based on how close hat PV goes.  Even so...respectable cold.  Way better than the 12z in a lot of ways.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah kinda seems like a detail that may not be there at all next run considering it wasn’t there before either. 

The theme is very good though.  You seem way too cautious here.  The trends are obvious.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

I'm betting this is holding back the cold air too much based on how close hat PV goes.  Even so...respectable cold.  Way better than the 12z in a lot of ways.

I think that little snow event on Thursday may not pan out and the cold stays entrenched longer. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-63

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Portland has the Gorge to keep things chilly but I’d ideally like to see the cold sink a bit further south to give the rest of the valley some fun.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

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Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

The theme is very good though.  You seem way too cautious here.  The trends are obvious.

lol cautions is usually a good thing in these situations. Things are definitely looking really good now though...my confidence is building with every good run we’re seeing. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-63

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I'm thinking the 18z ensemble will be quite cold.  The models are coming into reasonable agreement today.  Major back digging of cold pushed by the crazy NAO block.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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  • Meteorologist
1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I think that little snow event on Thursday may not pan out and the cold stays entrenched longer. 

The ECMWF has a snow event next Wednesday with an Arctic front. Will be interesting to see if it trends more amplified like the GFS.

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On Dec 8, 2013 PDX hit 12.  It warmed up a bit but Feb 7, '14  it got cold again and snowed.  Had about 6".  That's been my last good cold and snow together.

IMG_5401.jpeg

IMG_6625.jpeg

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I think that little snow event on Thursday may not pan out and the cold stays entrenched longer. 

Yeah....that detail will have to be worked out.  Arctic front snow is the best bet.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 minute ago, nwsnow said:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_31.png

Region wide event but hopefully snow instead of ice. 🥶

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<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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Ouch, that’s a major ice storm pattern for someone in E-Canada/US. Not sure if anyone has watched those documentaries on the 1998/1999 ice storms in Canada, but verbatim the 18z GFS is close to a worst case scenario.

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In general it's simply amazing how far south everything is going to be pushed by that block over the next 10 days.  PV very far south for a long time. We still have a shot at some REAL cold here.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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I could definitely live with the latest gfs verifying. We will see if we have a trend towards moderation and snowier overrunning solutions or colder drier more entrenched solutions. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-63

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3 minutes ago, wxmet said:

And another storm on Saturday incase you didn’t get enough snow on Thursday

 

 

DB498CAB-405B-40B8-A990-4346B3D9A027.png

That's more like it! Somebody is going to get pounded hard late next week. ☃️

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<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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Just now, Phil said:

That’s a major ice storm pattern for someone in E-Canada/US. Not sure if anyone has watched those documentaries on the 1998/1999 ice storms in Canada, but verbatim the 18z GFS is close to a worst case.

Yea, just your average hell-scape of HTL towers collapsing under the immense weight of ice, trees strewn everywhere caked in ice, travel severely impacted and freezing temps with no power. 

No thanks

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

In general it's simply amazing how far south everything is going to be pushed by that block over the next 10 days.  PV very far south for a long time. We still have a shot at some REAL cold here.

Define 'REAL cold' for me...

Sub 30 highs? Cause right now, it looks like we're in for some 33-37 highs, which I consider pretty darn cold for early/mid February!

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56 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I was in Oregon in December 2008, but the arctic front they had come through NE Oklahoma in Dec 08' was absolutely insane. Bartlesville had a 74/14 day and a 14/8 day the following day. 

That's a cold front

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  • Meteorologist
6 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

Not too worried a low out near HR180 but yeah too much warm air advection here with that track. Would be some pretty crazy event though. 

Isentropic snows are the best snows. Sometimes you have to toe the line.

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1 minute ago, wxmet said:

Isentropic snows are the best snows. Sometimes you have toe the line.

Yeah we will see...shorter range is what’s important at this point getting the cold air first. The snow details after the original cold air intrusion being almost a week out will probably change multiple times the next few days. We will see if we go cold and dry or moderate with a big snow to end it. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-63

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