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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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3 minutes ago, wxmet said:

Isentropic snows are the best snows. Sometimes you have toe the line.

True, just feels like a bit too close for comfort sometimes. Regardless, I think any low vaguely to the west should unleash the gorge to enough of an extent to keep things here interesting.

22F in PDX with the low to the NW.

sfct.us_nw.png

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_33.png

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I just experienced the craziest day of my life. Normal, routine doctor's visit quickly spiraled into a seven hour stay in the ER for a MRI scan to check for malignant tumors or multiple sclerosis. Tha

Downvote this post if you want snow.

Good morning,  As you know, back in late December I decided to end my jovial "ranting" here among you soulless bastard's to focus on more personal matters.  Well despite my better judgement

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4 minutes ago, wxmet said:

Isentropic snows are the best snows. Sometimes you have toe the line.

Yep, sometimes you got to do a little dancing with the devil. Put on your dancin' shoes boy and girls.

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1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Should I post this? From Wednesday to Saturday 4 PM

sn10_acc.us_state_wa (2).png

Definitely not. Wait until the snowstorm finishes on the model before posting 😂

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 6.9"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 

2020-21: 10.5" (2/10: Tr, 2/12: 0.5" , 2/13: 8.5", 2/14: 1.5")

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1 minute ago, AlTahoe said:

Denver set their record 2 day temp drop in Dec 2008 as well. 76F temp drop from 58F to -18F. Wow 

1 12/14/2008 76 58 -18

 

Sheesh...front range craziness

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That would be an insane snowstorm for the South Sound. Olympia gets 36"!

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 6.9"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 

2020-21: 10.5" (2/10: Tr, 2/12: 0.5" , 2/13: 8.5", 2/14: 1.5")

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3 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

lol wasn't expecting that. 

If it ever stops...

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 6.9"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 

2020-21: 10.5" (2/10: Tr, 2/12: 0.5" , 2/13: 8.5", 2/14: 1.5")

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Just now, Skagit Weather said:

That would be an insane snowstorm for the South Sound. Olympia gets 36"!

With temps in the teens and 20s. Looks like we finally make it to freezing sometime on Sunday

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1 minute ago, paulb/eugene said:

I look at it this way...12km resolution model may overestimate amount of cold air getting into Columbia Basin but at same time underestimate flow through the gorge and thus may be colder in PDX down to SLE/EUG

This statement is not untrue, just ask Rob

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Just down, down, down on the latest 850 graph.  Mean down to 11.2 so far.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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3 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said:

I look at it this way...12km resolution model may overestimate amount of cold air getting into Columbia Basin but at same time underestimate flow through the gorge and thus may be colder in PDX down to SLE/EUG

Need a CCG to get cold enough here. Doesn’t look to be in the cards...yet. That might change.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 49 (Most recent: Apr 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Looks like 850s bottom out at -11.2 on the operational and -14.6 on the control on the 18z.  Works for me!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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The EURO and now GFS are both showing a couple systems coming onshore later next week. The EURO takes them into Southern Oregon and Northern California. While the GFS takes them further North and Oregon and Washington get in on the action. Going to be fun watching this all play out.

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<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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Unfortunately hour two hundred and whatever is a mess.

 

#timposting 

 

 

4A3F082F-0144-4314-9018-4EC72E41E26A.png

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like 850s bottom out at -11.2 on the operational and -14.6 on the control on the 18z.  Works for me!

Any chance you recall where SEA bottomed out in Feb 19?

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Just now, Timmy said:

Never

Highly doubt this run verifies...as the details will probably change with every run the next few days...but for sake of the situation the snow ratios may be higher than 10-1 given the temperatures most of the snow falls at. So kuchera actually would make sense in this situation. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-63

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1 minute ago, Requiem said:

Unfortunately hour two hundred and whatever is a mess.

 

#timposting 

 

 

4A3F082F-0144-4314-9018-4EC72E41E26A.png

Actually would be a pretty good pattern for preserving our snowcover and low level cold there Tim! Light, not too warmish offshore flow with minimal mixing. Probably a 41/31 day at PDX with 6" of sleety snowcover 🥰

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3 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Unfortunately hour two hundred and whatever is a mess.

 

#timposting 

 

 

4A3F082F-0144-4314-9018-4EC72E41E26A.png

He will remind us all that no matter what this snow WILL all melt eventually. So we shouldn’t even enjoy it. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-63

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

He will remind us all that no matter what this snow WILL all melt eventually. So we shouldn’t even enjoy it. 

Not if we make huge piles of it and push it to the corner of our driveways

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4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Actually would be a pretty good pattern for preserving our snowcover and low level cold there Tim! Light, not too warmish offshore flow with minimal mixing. Probably a 41/31 day at PDX with 6" of sleety snowcover 🥰

Cue 850 map with very warm temps or something 

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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1 minute ago, JBolin said:

Not if we make huge piles of it and push it to the corner of our driveways

I had some snow piles last until late March after February 2019! 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-63

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Nws SEA getting slightly more onboard. “High temps in the 30s to near 40” and “Teens in whatcom county”! 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-63

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My fruit flies got wind of the possibilities.  They are preparing for what might be coming.  Some are carrying signs, "The end is near".  It's a solemn crowd.  They've had a good run this winter.  They know they've lasted much longer than most winters.  Long live Drosophila melanogaster. 

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2 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, there definitely was actually. That was a pretty crazy AK block. Barrow hit 32 on the 23rd! Just led to more of a bleed in from the PV in Central Canada that eventually migrated eastward and spread out longitudinally.

12221983.PNG.5450d6d8ea17607598f8dd493774a8cc.PNG

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ncepreanal/data/1983/12/reanal_1983122400.gif

12241983.PNG.1597efd698bac974c1df5acb34f46d9a.PNG

Yeah, pretty significant differences there to the current/upcoming pattern.

But this one does look like it could be legendary for parts of the country.

Low. Solar.

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So this thing is starting to look like 2019 after all. Models all over the place and pessimism abounding, and then things take a major turn within a week. 

Just hope we don't jinx it...

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