Gradient Keeper Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 This is about the worst run-to-run model consistency I can recall. Just horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 52 minutes ago, JBolin said: Good morning, As you know, back in late December I decided to end my jovial "ranting" here among you soulless bastard's to focus on more personal matters. Well despite my better judgement I have chosen to share some major life news with you all, my gf has accepted an amazing offer from her employer that requires relocation. As such the offer comes with all expenses paid relocation overseas. As of August 3rd of this year, her and I will be living full time in Tampere, Finland, not only will this be a massive change but also a welcome change as she is originally from Finland and still has family there as well as in Sweden and Norway. I'm still a bit shell-shocked about the whole thing but then I realized, I'll get to see the Aurora Borealis, I'll get snow and not have to worry about the models waffling, I'll see so many things that many of us want or hope to see (in a lifetime) and how lucky we'll both be to experience that. The immersion into a culture I'm not familiar with will be a hard task to endure but the "rewards" will far outweigh any hiccups or missteps I may have. So for the time being, I may continue to lurk among you and may periodically post. Take it easy you goons. Way to go brotha! Nice to hear from u again. 2 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Day 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 hour ago, TT-SEA said: We will soon see what the 12Z GFS says. Contrary to popular belief... I don't control the models or the weather. Only because I stole your weather manipulation device. Prepare for a cold summer! Muahahaha. 2 1 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Phil said: Only because I stole your weather manipulation device. Prepare for a cold summer! Muahahaha. I expect nothing less! **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 The 6z will verify. Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 12Z GEM is looking much more back-doorish than its 00Z run. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulb/eugene Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 12z GEFS 500mb height mean 70m higher at SEA on day 4. Atrocious 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 This winter has been crazy. We had one storm on Nov 8th and our second storm on Jan 27th. It looks like nothing again till maybe the end of Feb or early March. We not even seeing clouds, just endless days of blue sky's and above normal temps. Unless we get a Miracle March or big April there is a very real chance that 2019-2021 will be one of the three driest two year period's in California since 1975-1977, and 2013-2015. Maybe we will see another great Pacific climate shift after this winter like in 1975-1977? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Canada is on another level 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, Timmy said: Canada is on another level Not even the coldest frame! That's near top tier level stuff 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Is there a market or something where we can place our orders? I would like 2" of snow following by a high in the low to mid 30s. Anything after that is bonus. 3 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 So....the GEM blinks on this run! One of the big problems I've had with the recent GEM and ECMWF runs progressing the pattern so quickly is there is really nothing to drive. We have a new Kona low forming at the time the bottom the block was being forecast to just magically move inland. That sideways trough across southern Canada is another thing to stop that progression. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Good lord. And it gets really cold well before this. 1 1 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 I have to admit, even though I will not be getting much snow over here in Spokane, I can not even remember if I have ever seen or experienced 850's that cold. I love my move to Spokane for that reason. No more worries about getting snow as I know it will snow here pretty much every winter. This has been about the most snowless winter they have had in a while here, and it has been fantastic to me. Heck, it snowed like 5 inches on Christmas day! I do hope everyone on the westside can get some severe cold and maybe stir up some moisture to boot. Watching and hoping!! 5 My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 WOW UKMET ALERT !!!! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 That is one cold GEM run. Brrr. 3 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 5, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 GEM keeps the cold party going right on through the end, with some Willamette Valley snow as a clipper drops down at Day 10 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 5, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Kinda fun that it feels like literally anything is still on the table. Actually reduces the stress quite a bit. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Good to see the CMC and UKMET bring in some really cold air as we await the Euro. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: WOW UKMET ALERT !!!! Back to back cold runs for that model now. Why people were giving up last night with such a volatile situation is beyond me. 1 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Kinda fun that it feels like literally anything is still on the table. Actually reduces the stress quite a bit. I have no more energy to give towards being excited or upset. Whatever happens, happens, at this point. 4 1 Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Back to back cold runs for that model now. Why people were giving up last night with such a volatile situation is beyond me. Mainly because these volatile situations do not normally pan out very well... Let's hope this one brings the good in a epic way. Let's see if the EURO jumps onto the arctic outbreak bandwagon! 3 1 My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Back to back cold runs for that model now. Why people were giving up last night with such a volatile situation is beyond me. UKMET gets cold MUCH faster too 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 5, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, jakerepp said: I have no more energy to give towards being excited or upset. Whatever happens, happens, at this point. Exactly. I've reached a perfect state of modeling Zen at this point. Impossible to feel invested in anything. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Kinda fun that it feels like literally anything is still on the table. Actually reduces the stress quite a bit. I agree. I'm having fun. A great outcome would be totally awesome too! 1 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Back to back cold runs for that model now. Why people were giving up last night with such a volatile situation is beyond me. Don’t be disappointed if it doesn’t go the way you want though. Still a toss up. 1 Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 For those who haven't seen the GEM you should look. After a week of cold weather the run ends with a big fat 150 ridge potentially ready to deliver more cold. In the bigger picture this has a chance to be an epic nearly nationwide cold wave that harks back to the good old days. 4 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Exactly. I've reached a perfect state of modeling Zen at this point. Impossible to feel invested in anything. NOT ME!!! No ZEN!!! I’VE HAD LOTS OF CAFFEINE THIS MORNING! THE GFS IS OUT TO LUNCH...GO UK AND GEM! Up to .93” on the day. First time seeing water across the roadway at this spot. 5 1 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 EC with a worse solution regionally ML -200 EC with a better solution regionally ML +180 Place your bets... Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 21 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: WOW UKMET ALERT !!!! I’m out and about rn so can somebody post the UKMET pls? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Don’t be disappointed if it doesn’t go the way you want though. Still a toss up. I think I have finally gone beyond getting so insanely invested in this stuff. The fun model runs is literally half of the enjoyment for me...well...maybe 45%. I know I will move to a more enjoyable climate some day, and in the meantime I'll take what I can get. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, MossMan said: NOT ME!!! No ZEN!!! I’VE HAD LOTS OF CAFFEINE THIS MORNING! THE GFS IS OUT TO LUNCH...GO UK AND GEM! Up to .93” on the day. First time seeing water across the roadway at this spot. The GFS is actually pretty cold. The 6z was insane. Amazingly I've had very little rain the last few days. Obviously not the case up your way. My big goal right now is to stay below 50 today and keep my quite long streak of sub 50 highs going. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, snow_wizard said: The GFS is actually pretty cold. The 6z was insane. Amazingly I've very little rain the last few days. Obviously not the case up your way. My big goal right now is to stay below 50 today and keep my quite long streak of sub 50 highs going. Y'all are probly gonna get chilly or downright cold up there. Down this way seems a far more dubious prospect. 1 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 5, 2021 Popular Post Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Morning hike. 12 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said: Y'all are probly gonna get chilly or downright cold up there. Down this way seems a far more dubious prospect. Still probably the coldest weather since October. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 The 12z GFS meteograms spit out a 34 / 23 day for Seattle, and those are a bit warm biased (based on face value model output) from what I've been able to tell. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 12Z GEFS through day 10... 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Morning hike. A cave underneath a waterfall. Pretty D**n cool! 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 8 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: I’m out and about rn so can somebody post the UKMET pls? Pretty cold! Not nearly as crazy as the GEM though! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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