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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Wish we had one down here for Lane & Douglas county too. Feels like a completely different climate zone now.

000 
TTAA00 KEUG 300512

EUOR-EUGENE SPRINGFIELD AND VICINITY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUGENE OR
1015 PM PST FRI NOV 29 1985

.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES. HIGHS
30 TO 35. WINDS NORTH TO 15 MPH.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS ABOUT 30.
.SUNDAY...80 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. WARMER. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.

$$

HIGH TODAY..26   MORNING LOW..20   LAST PRECIPITATION FELL THURSDAY.

NOVEMBER 30TH ON RECORD...............
RECORD HIGH....65 IN 1939 NORMAL....49 LAST YEAR....48
RECORD LOW.....17 IN 1952 NORMAL....36 LAST YEAR....34
GREATEST RAINFALL THIS DATE 2.85 INCH IN 1975.
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I just experienced the craziest day of my life. Normal, routine doctor's visit quickly spiraled into a seven hour stay in the ER for a MRI scan to check for malignant tumors or multiple sclerosis. Tha

Downvote this post if you want snow.

Good morning,  As you know, back in late December I decided to end my jovial "ranting" here among you soulless bastard's to focus on more personal matters.  Well despite my better judgement

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Just now, paulb/eugene said:

000 
TTAA00 KEUG 300512

EUOR-EUGENE SPRINGFIELD AND VICINITY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUGENE OR
1015 PM PST FRI NOV 29 1985

.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES. HIGHS
30 TO 35. WINDS NORTH TO 15 MPH.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS ABOUT 30.
.SUNDAY...80 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. WARMER. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.

$$

HIGH TODAY..26   MORNING LOW..20   LAST PRECIPITATION FELL THURSDAY.

NOVEMBER 30TH ON RECORD...............
RECORD HIGH....65 IN 1939 NORMAL....49 LAST YEAR....48
RECORD LOW.....17 IN 1952 NORMAL....36 LAST YEAR....34
GREATEST RAINFALL THIS DATE 2.85 INCH IN 1975.
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What about forecast discussions? That's what I would love to see. Like what KEZI and KVAL focus on.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 49 (Most recent: Apr 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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A little earlier when I started my truck and Pandora started playing this automatically...It’s coming folks...It’s coming!! 
Matt is suspiciously MIA...He’s got a microscope on every teleconnection as we speak! 

E4E6C70A-7C8D-4F6A-8A80-866857C7B791.jpeg

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This is PDX afd from Xmas 1983.  Pretty succinct I should say

000 
WOUS00 KPDX 241600
WILL FOLLOW SPECMO WITH WRM FNT AND SFC LOW MVG NWD GRADU. OVRRNG
MSTR COVERG STATE TDY AND PREV FCST LK GD EXCPT WILL COVER CASCDS COL
GORGE AND PDX AREA WITH BLIZZARD WRNG AND ISSUE WINTER STORM WRNG
REST OF STATE EXCPT S CST. SNOW N AND SNW OR SNW CHG TO FRZG RAIN
SOUTH TDY. NEW LFM ALSO SUGGESTS SNOW CHG TO RAIN WRN ORE AS S WNDS
TAKE OVR. NO DCR IN SFC WNDS TDY.
AST 577 PDX 777 EUG 898 MFR +98 PDT 477 LMT +98 PECK
OR..WARNINGS...WS ZNS..01..02..03..04..05..08..09..10..11..12
               HI WND ZN..07..N PTN 06..EXTRM NRN PTN 01
               GLW CLATSOP SPIT TO PT ST GEORGE
               BLZD ZN..06..07..N PTN 04
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13 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Wish we had one down here for Lane & Douglas county too. Feels like a completely different climate zone now.

Medford occasionally mentions you??  Although they have a stiff one for N. California most of the time from what I've seen.

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17 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

@Kolk1604 We are going to need the ensembles asap when they are done pls

Temps are out yet. Not bad or next week and it will change. No surprise it's less though the 18z op would cripple the region. 

download (15).png

download (16).png

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18z ECMWF looks more or less the same as 12z thru 90hr. Too bad we don’t get a full run of the model with 18z.

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

In fact, a pretty good run to run delta for lower heights over BC and higher heights over AK.

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_dprog-2828800.png

That should significantly slow down arrival of arctic air in Oregon but could reap benefits later if trough can dig south a bit more.  

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Good grief!  the 18z GFS shows 9 consecutive highs of 35 or below for SEA. Undoubtedly snow plays into that.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Good grief!  The 18z GFS shows 9 consecutive highs of 35 or below for SEA. Undoubtedly snow plays into that.

 

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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6 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said:

That should significantly slow down arrival of arctic air in Oregon but could reap benefits later if trough can dig south a bit more.  

Amazing the 18z shows it digging better than the 12z.  This could be huge if we hit the just right balance.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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8 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Yessir.

One of the better local accounts. Nice to see someone get excited about snow like how some get excited about wind or other get anti-excited about anything not climo on WAWX Twitter.

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22 minutes ago, wxmet said:

18z ECMWF looks more or less the same as 12z thru 90hr. Too bad we don’t get a full run of the model with 18z.

18z actually an improvement over 12z. Lol. Squeezes even more of the TPV out of Alaska/Yukon. Amazing how different it looks versus 00z last night.

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24 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

In fact, a pretty good run to run delta for lower heights over BC and higher heights over AK.

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_dprog-2828800.png

I think that’s the 06z run.

Edit: Nevermind, just misread the header.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

18z actually an improvement over 12z. Lol. Squeezes even more of the TPV out of Alaska/Yukon. Amazing how different it looks versus 00z last night.

I am nervous about the 00z tonight.  If it is anything close to 18z then the confidence is going way up for me.

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It was above freezing and snowless today. Has anyone looked at the CFS for May? Snow and cold has killed millions and anyone cheering for it is a bad person. Your life is but a blink of the eye in the cosmic scheme of things and in the end the EPS will paint the earth blood red as the all surface life burns off as destined by our main sequence star. Snow love is dumb and futile. Has anyone started planting spring flowers yet?

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I screwed up big time...I told my wife. However we might be okay since she is NOT onboard...Her exact words were “you have said this 3 times now over the last few weeks, I am not falling for this again, it’s not happening” 

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3 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

I am nervous about the 00z tonight.  If it is anything close to 18z then the confidence is going way up for me.

I think the inflection point is sometime this weekend. Probably either 12z Sunday morning or 00z in the evening, IMO.

Make it thru Sunday evening and I think confidence increases quadratically.

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Just now, Phil said:

I think the inflection point is sometime this weekend. Either 12z Saturday morning or 00z in the evening.

I agree. If we can hold through the weekend then we’re set.

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Don't worry fellas.....I got this.

As long as I post this image every day until the event we will get our old-school arctic blast!!

You can count on me.

 

rug pull.png

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It makes it more fun when you read people excitedly posting, who just last night, let us all know that they were "done", and "taking a break", or "walking away for a while"... sure you are😁

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2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I screwed up big time...I told my wife. However we might be okay since she is NOT onboard...Her exact words were “you have said this 3 times now over the last few weeks, I am not falling for this again, it’s not happening” 

Noooooooo. You have to take it back. Call it a false alarm.

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2 minutes ago, wxmet said:

I agree. If we can hold through the weekend then we’re set.

Caught me before the edit. I meant to write Sunday.

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Too many busted snow maps the last two years have me very nervous, fingers crossed the models hold steady on this bad boy. Someone go blow up the Rockies just in case

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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Yet another SuperBowl Sunday with imminent snow/cold being a real possibility! 

I was just thinking that!   Nachos....then snow and cold.  I would call that a good week :) 

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Just now, paulb/eugene said:

image.gif.bfbd693a0a3475a66fdff1cdeb1dc152.gifSorry I’ve been holding back Aeroflot flight data from being incorporated into your Американское Модель.  Your 00z run will have some surprises I’m afraid

image.jpeg

I see the plane took you to the other side of the world !!!

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6 minutes ago, Phil said:

I think the inflection point is sometime this weekend. Either 12z Sunday morning or 00z in the evening.

Yeah... it becomes pretty obvious by that point.    The next focus will become undercutting and overrunning systems sneaking through the ridge.    That seems like its a pretty fragile situation too! 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... it becomes pretty obvious by that point.    The next focus will become undercutting and overrunning systems sneaking through the ridge.    That seems like its a pretty fragile situation too! 

An undercutting low about Coos Bay that sits and stalls for 48 hours sounds good to me.  

I am sure you want that same low at the OR/WA border.

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Anybody got a good putter?

A43A22DC-06CB-4958-A0E1-6104B7055C22.jpeg

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 49 (Most recent: Apr 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Bought several of these from a retired met.   Let me know if you're interested.  I can work out doable low interest financing with you as well.  For a little more I can get you a two-seater for your significant other so she knows for sure what you're doing at midnight, 1am, 2am, 3am, 4am and all through the day.  Reassure her that your mortgage will be paid each month.  There is a new model coming out that will include your own secret connection directly to the NWS and top of the line North Korea weather services.

model riding chair.png

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