DJ Droppin 9299 Posted February 6 Report Share Posted February 6 Boom ! 2 1 Link to post Share on other sites
BLI snowman 6756 Posted February 6 Author Report Share Posted February 6 February 12 delivers again! 2 1 Link to post Share on other sites
TT-SEA 3620 Posted February 6 Report Share Posted February 6 Unfortunately for places south of Portland... that is mostly rain on Thursday afternoon. 1 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to post Share on other sites
hawkstwelve 7241 Posted February 6 Report Share Posted February 6 Some cold Fraser outflow as that system approaches. 1 1 Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com Link to post Share on other sites
snow_wizard 11637 Posted February 6 Report Share Posted February 6 Wow! This has serious potential to be great. I guess -NAO can be good for us! 4 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2020-21 stats Total Snowfall = 7.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5 Total Hail = 0.0" Coldest Low = 23 Lows 32 or below = 35 Highs 32 or below = 2 Lows 20 or below = 0 Highs 40 or below = 5 Link to post Share on other sites
TT-SEA 3620 Posted February 6 Report Share Posted February 6 Ohhhh but plenty of snow on Thursday night... 2 1 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to post Share on other sites
Snowdrift 409 Posted February 6 Report Share Posted February 6 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Boom ! So much for the big blast. Link to post Share on other sites
SilverFallsAndrew 14731 Posted February 6 Report Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: Unfortunately for places south of Portland... that is mostly rain on Thursday afternoon. 1 1 Snowfall Precip 2020-21: 9.8" 2020-21: 40.47" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Link to post Share on other sites
Skagit Weather 648 Posted February 6 Report Share Posted February 6 Just so I can disappointed when it doesn't happen this time, what's the coldest 850mb temps we've had west of the Cascades recently? Like last ten years or so. 1 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 6.9" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 2020-21: 10.5" (2/10: Tr, 2/12: 0.5" , 2/13: 8.5", 2/14: 1.5") Link to post Share on other sites
Frontal Snowsquall 2620 Posted February 6 Report Share Posted February 6 3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Boom ! 5 <p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font> Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9299 Posted February 6 Report Share Posted February 6 Day 7 Holy COW mega snow pattern 2 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Meteorologist wxmet 2013 Posted February 6 Meteorologist Report Share Posted February 6 Great trend with the late week system. I don't think the north shifts are done. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
SilverFallsAndrew 14731 Posted February 6 Report Share Posted February 6 4 1 Snowfall Precip 2020-21: 9.8" 2020-21: 40.47" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Link to post Share on other sites
Requiem 2647 Posted February 6 Report Share Posted February 6 Strangely enough I prefer last run— but next run will be different! Still nice that the EURO delivers cold air and the offshore ahem flow "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to post Share on other sites
snow_wizard 11637 Posted February 6 Report Share Posted February 6 I like how northerly the surface gradients are on this run. That means Seattle will get it's cold air from the north instead of it having to go over the Cascades. 4 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2020-21 stats Total Snowfall = 7.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5 Total Hail = 0.0" Coldest Low = 23 Lows 32 or below = 35 Highs 32 or below = 2 Lows 20 or below = 0 Highs 40 or below = 5 Link to post Share on other sites
SilverFallsAndrew 14731 Posted February 6 Report Share Posted February 6 I like the GEM better. 1 1 2 Snowfall Precip 2020-21: 9.8" 2020-21: 40.47" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Link to post Share on other sites
TT-SEA 3620 Posted February 6 Report Share Posted February 6 One word of caution (that maybe Matt might offer)... the blocking is weak and the undercutting has been shifting north with each run. Any further north and this might end up being a rainy pattern instead. 2 1 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9299 Posted February 6 Report Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, wxmet said: Great trend with the late week system. I don't think the north shifts are done. No night shift for me. I haven't slept yet from ... whenever that was..... 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites
MossMan 10549 Posted February 6 Report Share Posted February 6 I like the run that gives my house the most snow. 1 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Phil 11712 Posted February 6 Report Share Posted February 6 9 minutes ago, Requiem said: Where’s my offshore flow Is that really the first thing on your mind? 1 Personal Weather Station: NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=F3819&num=168&banner=NONE Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62/graph/2019-08-23/2019-08-23/daily Link to post Share on other sites
Snowdrift 409 Posted February 6 Report Share Posted February 6 Yuck! I don't want the Pacific involved. That storm will bomb out and move north. Meanwhile, warm Pacific air will flood the NW. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Meteorologist wxmet 2013 Posted February 6 Meteorologist Report Share Posted February 6 Just now, DJ Droppin said: No night shift for me. I haven't slept yet from ... whenever that was..... We need you for the GFS 06z 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Snowdrift 409 Posted February 6 Report Share Posted February 6 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I like the GEM better. You and me both. 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites
SilverFallsAndrew 14731 Posted February 6 Report Share Posted February 6 I'd prefer things don't get undercut so quickly. Let the cold marinate. 8 Snowfall Precip 2020-21: 9.8" 2020-21: 40.47" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Link to post Share on other sites
TT-SEA 3620 Posted February 6 Report Share Posted February 6 Warm air much farther north one week from today... the result of rapid undercutting. I am guessing 12 degrees in Santa Barbara might not happen. 2 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to post Share on other sites
hawkstwelve 7241 Posted February 6 Report Share Posted February 6 Much more of a N/S gradient by Friday PM. 1 Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com Link to post Share on other sites
SilverFallsAndrew 14731 Posted February 6 Report Share Posted February 6 This is actually an extremely discouraging run. At least we still have the GEM and ICON. 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 Snowfall Precip 2020-21: 9.8" 2020-21: 40.47" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Link to post Share on other sites
Snowdrift 409 Posted February 6 Report Share Posted February 6 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: One word of caution (that maybe Matt might offer)... the blocking is weak and the undercutting has been shifting north with each run. Any further north and this might end up being a rainy pattern instead. Great analysis! Link to post Share on other sites
Meteorologist wxmet 2013 Posted February 6 Meteorologist Report Share Posted February 6 2 Link to post Share on other sites
Omegaraptor 2370 Posted February 6 Report Share Posted February 6 By hour 180 the 850hpa temps in the Willamette Valley are above average and it changes over to ZR. Hour 192, changeover to rain is complete with a dramatic warmup. Snow will get washed away fast. Hard to call this an improvement. Quick hitter and it's gone. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Requiem 2647 Posted February 6 Report Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, Phil said: Is that really the first thing on your mind? Honestly I’d love to get that cold air in before— at the very least this is admittedly a very cold run. "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to post Share on other sites
Deweydog 14073 Posted February 6 Report Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: This is actually an extremely discouraging run. At least we still have the GEM and ICON. Someone gets a nice warm tongue. 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to post Share on other sites
Frontal Snowsquall 2620 Posted February 6 Report Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, wxmet said: Round 2! Would be a nasty ice storm down here. 1 <p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font> Link to post Share on other sites
hawkstwelve 7241 Posted February 6 Report Share Posted February 6 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: This is actually an extremely discouraging run. At least we still have the GEM and ICON. I'll gladly take improvements in the 3-5 day range over improvements in the 6-8 day range. 4 Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9299 Posted February 6 Report Share Posted February 6 Well we know that'll change by 12z... I'm exhausted and heading off now. I will be here for 12z. 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites
bainbridgekid 3853 Posted February 6 Report Share Posted February 6 3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: One word of caution (that maybe Matt might offer)... the blocking is weak and the undercutting has been shifting north with each run. Any further north and this might end up being a rainy pattern instead. Definitely hard to overstate how tenuous this setup is. Thread the needle and we get an epic pattern with a lot of snow and legit cold, but it'd still be very easy to see nothing noteworthy at all. 4 2 Everett Snowfall 2018-19: 24.75"2019-20: 10.5" 1/10: 0.5"1/12: 5.5"1/13: 1"1/14: 1.5"1/15: 2" Link to post Share on other sites
snow_wizard 11637 Posted February 6 Report Share Posted February 6 Epic potential depending on the details. Going to be fun! 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2020-21 stats Total Snowfall = 7.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5 Total Hail = 0.0" Coldest Low = 23 Lows 32 or below = 35 Highs 32 or below = 2 Lows 20 or below = 0 Highs 40 or below = 5 Link to post Share on other sites
Meteorologist wxmet 2013 Posted February 6 Meteorologist Report Share Posted February 6 2 1 Link to post Share on other sites
12345WeatherNerd 229 Posted February 6 Report Share Posted February 6 Looks good for western Washington so far. OR NOT 1 Link to post Share on other sites
SilverFallsAndrew 14731 Posted February 6 Report Share Posted February 6 Encouraging trends tonight. Hopefully the ICON and GEM are leading the way. Be blessed. 4 Snowfall Precip 2020-21: 9.8" 2020-21: 40.47" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Link to post Share on other sites
GHweatherChris 3482 Posted February 6 Report Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: Looks good for western Washington so far. Honestly, that's all that matters to me!! 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Snowdrift 409 Posted February 6 Report Share Posted February 6 Just now, bainbridgekid said: Definitely hard to overstate how tenuous this setup is. Thread the needle and we get an epic pattern with a lot of snow and legit cold, but it'd still be very easy to see nothing noteworthy at all. Yep, dancing with the devil is dangerous. Link to post Share on other sites
hawkstwelve 7241 Posted February 6 Report Share Posted February 6 Snow from PDX to our Canada friends next Saturday. 3 2 Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com Link to post Share on other sites
Requiem 2647 Posted February 6 Report Share Posted February 6 At the very least Portland has the gorge to at least cool things down a bit. Details are of course gonna change, but nice we saw some improvement in that 3-5 day range. "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to post Share on other sites
Meteorologist wxmet 2013 Posted February 6 Meteorologist Report Share Posted February 6 If you want a big snow you're gonna have to play with some undercutting. I'd rather this than just dry and cold. That's boring. 7 2 Link to post Share on other sites
hawkstwelve 7241 Posted February 6 Report Share Posted February 6 Total snow from Friday AM-Sunday AM... 1 2 Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com Link to post Share on other sites
TT-SEA 3620 Posted February 6 Report Share Posted February 6 3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Snow from PDX to our Canada friends next Saturday. And a potential windstorm through the Sound by that afternoon with a roaring south wind and temps in the mid 40s on the same run. Would be a crazy day. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to post Share on other sites
Popular Post Meatyorologist 1998 Posted February 6 Popular Post Report Share Posted February 6 I just experienced the craziest day of my life. Normal, routine doctor's visit quickly spiraled into a seven hour stay in the ER for a MRI scan to check for malignant tumors or multiple sclerosis. Thankfully nothing was detected and my eye problem was resolved with a steroid prescription. Also the models look fantastic. And I'm sore from all the catheters and laying in one position for a quarter of a day. I need sleep. 24 1 Link to post Share on other sites
hawkstwelve 7241 Posted February 6 Report Share Posted February 6 Just now, TT-SEA said: And a potential windstorm through the Sound by that afternoon with a roaring south wind and temps in the mid 40s on the same run. Thanks Tim!! Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com Link to post Share on other sites
snow_wizard 11637 Posted February 6 Report Share Posted February 6 I think a GFS / ECMWF mix would be really good. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2020-21 stats Total Snowfall = 7.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5 Total Hail = 0.0" Coldest Low = 23 Lows 32 or below = 35 Highs 32 or below = 2 Lows 20 or below = 0 Highs 40 or below = 5 Link to post Share on other sites
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