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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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I just experienced the craziest day of my life. Normal, routine doctor's visit quickly spiraled into a seven hour stay in the ER for a MRI scan to check for malignant tumors or multiple sclerosis. Tha

Downvote this post if you want snow.

Good morning,  As you know, back in late December I decided to end my jovial "ranting" here among you soulless bastard's to focus on more personal matters.  Well despite my better judgement

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Unfortunately for places south of Portland... that is mostly rain on Thursday afternoon.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-precip_6hr_inch-3109600.png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-3088000 (1).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Wow!  This has serious potential to be great.  I guess -NAO can be good for us!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 54

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Ohhhh but plenty of snow on Thursday night...

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_12hr-3131200.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Unfortunately for places south of Portland... that is mostly rain on Thursday afternoon.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-precip_6hr_inch-3109600.png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-3088000 (1).png

May be an image of map, sky and text that says '2 m AGL Temperature F156 Valid: 2021-02-12 12z 2021 Dente fe Weathe Forecasts ECMWF) this.service based roducts ofthe ECMWF Init: 2021-02-06 00z ECMWF Hi-Res www.pivotal www. weather.com -60 50 40 30 20 10 10 20 30 40 50 60 pivet wedthèr edthèr 70 80 90 100 110 120'

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just so I can disappointed when it doesn't happen this time, what's the coldest 850mb temps we've had west of the Cascades recently? Like last ten years or so.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 6.9"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 

2020-21: 10.5" (2/10: Tr, 2/12: 0.5" , 2/13: 8.5", 2/14: 1.5")

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3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Boom !

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_nw.png

PFlt.gif

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<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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May be an image of map

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Strangely enough I prefer last run— but next run will be different! Still nice that the EURO delivers cold air and the offshore ahem flow 

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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I like how northerly the surface gradients are on this run.  That means Seattle will get it's cold air from the north instead of it having to go over the Cascades.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 54

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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I like the GEM better. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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One word of caution (that maybe Matt might offer)... the blocking is weak and the undercutting has been shifting north with each run.    Any further north and this might end up being a rainy pattern instead.  

 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-3131200 (2).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, wxmet said:

Great trend with the late week system. I don't think the north shifts are done.

No night shift for me. I haven't slept yet from ... whenever that was.....

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Just now, DJ Droppin said:

No night shift for me. I haven't slept yet from ... whenever that was.....

We need you for the GFS 06z

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I'd prefer things don't get undercut so quickly. Let the cold marinate. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Warm air much farther north one week from today... the result of rapid undercutting.

I am guessing 12 degrees in Santa Barbara might not happen.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-3174400.png

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This is actually an extremely discouraging run. At least we still have the GEM and ICON. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

One word of caution (that maybe Matt might offer)... the blocking is weak and the undercutting has been shifting north with each run.    Any further north and this might end up being a rainy pattern instead.  

 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-3131200 (2).png

Great analysis!

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By hour 180 the 850hpa temps in the Willamette Valley are above average and it changes over to ZR. Hour 192, changeover to rain is complete with a dramatic warmup. Snow will get washed away fast.

Hard to call this an improvement. Quick hitter and it's gone.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Is that really the first thing on your mind? :lol:

Honestly I’d love to get that cold air in before— at the very least this is admittedly a very cold run.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This is actually an extremely discouraging run. At least we still have the GEM and ICON. 

Someone gets a nice warm tongue.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, wxmet said:

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_nw.png

Round 2! Would be a nasty ice storm down here.

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<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

One word of caution (that maybe Matt might offer)... the blocking is weak and the undercutting has been shifting north with each run.    Any further north and this might end up being a rainy pattern instead.  

 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-3131200 (2).png

Definitely hard to overstate how tenuous this setup is. Thread the needle and we get an epic pattern with a lot of snow and legit cold, but it'd still be very easy to see nothing noteworthy at all.

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Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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Epic potential depending on the details.  Going to be fun!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 54

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Encouraging trends tonight. Hopefully the ICON and GEM are leading the way. Be blessed.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, bainbridgekid said:

Definitely hard to overstate how tenuous this setup is. Thread the needle and we get an epic pattern with a lot of snow and legit cold, but it'd still be very easy to see nothing noteworthy at all.

Yep, dancing with the devil is dangerous.

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At the very least Portland has the gorge to at least cool things down a bit. Details are of course gonna change, but nice we saw some improvement in that 3-5 day range.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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If you want a big snow you're gonna have to play with some undercutting. I'd rather this than just dry and cold. That's boring.

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3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Snow from PDX to our Canada friends next Saturday.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr-3260800.png

And a potential windstorm through the Sound by that afternoon with a roaring south wind and temps in the mid 40s on the same run.     Would be a crazy day.

 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I think a GFS / ECMWF mix would be really good.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 54

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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