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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This is actually an extremely discouraging run. At least we still have the GEM and ICON. 

It’s over before it even began. Pretty sad stuff. 

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I just experienced the craziest day of my life. Normal, routine doctor's visit quickly spiraled into a seven hour stay in the ER for a MRI scan to check for malignant tumors or multiple sclerosis. Tha

Downvote this post if you want snow.

Good morning,  As you know, back in late December I decided to end my jovial "ranting" here among you soulless bastard's to focus on more personal matters.  Well despite my better judgement

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11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

One word of caution (that maybe Matt might offer)... the blocking is weak and the undercutting has been shifting north with each run.    Any further north and this might end up being a rainy pattern instead.  

 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-3131200 (2).png

Seattle and North would be very possible.  

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

I just experienced the craziest day of my life. Normal, routine doctor's visit quickly spiraled into a seven hour stay in the ER for a MRI scan to check for malignant tumors or multiple sclerosis. Thankfully nothing was detected and my eye problem was resolved with a steroid prescription. Also the models look fantastic. And I'm sore from all the catheters and laying in one position for a quarter of a day. I need sleep.

Wtf man that sucks. Wishing you the best.

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

I just experienced the craziest day of my life. Normal, routine doctor's visit quickly spiraled into a seven hour stay in the ER for a MRI scan to check for malignant tumors or multiple sclerosis. Thankfully nothing was detected and my eye problem was resolved with a steroid prescription. Also the models look fantastic. And I'm sore from all the catheters and laying in one position for a quarter of a day. I need sleep.

That sucks, but glad you are home and got to see some goodies before sleepy time!!

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

I just experienced the craziest day of my life. Normal, routine doctor's visit quickly spiraled into a seven hour stay in the ER for a MRI scan to check for malignant tumors or multiple sclerosis. Thankfully nothing was detected and my eye problem was resolved with a steroid prescription. Also the models look fantastic. And I'm sore from all the catheters and laying in one position for a quarter of a day. I need sleep.

Man, scary stuff. Get some much needed rest.

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

I just experienced the craziest day of my life. Normal, routine doctor's visit quickly spiraled into a seven hour stay in the ER for a MRI scan to check for malignant tumors or multiple sclerosis. Thankfully nothing was detected and my eye problem was resolved with a steroid prescription. Also the models look fantastic. And I'm sore from all the catheters and laying in one position for a quarter of a day. I need sleep.

 

Wow... that sounds horrible.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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These model changes are making me dizzy.  Never seen anything like it.  Something great is highly possible.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Thanks Tim!!

Some people like windstorms too.   Randy does!   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, wxmet said:

sn10_acc.us_nw.png

I'll take it!

<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

He's just discussing the models.... 👿

Yes... I am.

As modeled that would be a crazy day.   Heavy snow... then strong winds... and heavy rain.    Of course its all speculative and the next run will look totally different as we have seen lately.    

 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, Phil said:

Wtf man that sucks. Wishing you the best.

 

Just now, GHweatherChris said:

That sucks, but glad you are home and got to see some goodies before sleepy time!!

Thanks y'all, I'm perfectly okay... all my vitals are good and nothing weird was found in my brain. Just a little shaken up and tired, that's all. Definitely the scariest day of my life and closest brush with something serious I've ever had.

Also I'm absolutely elated with the sudden shift on the models. Obviously exact snowfall positioning/potential over-undercutting won't be resolved 100+ hours out, but there are some seriously good solutions showing up.

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It’ll be different next run. Good that the cold is still there at least, let’s see if ensembles improve.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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11 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

By hour 180 the 850hpa temps in the Willamette Valley are above average and it changes over to ZR. Hour 192, changeover to rain is complete with a dramatic warmup. Snow will get washed away fast.

Hard to call this an improvement. Quick hitter and it's gone.

Do you know that this regions biggest snow falls include dramatic warm ups and cool downs in a short period? 

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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2 minutes ago, Snowdrift said:

The Pacific will win. Never bet against that huge ocean to our west.

Motion for @iFred to lock down the forums to preclude the fall out from future model runs and the effective cancellation of winter. Who are the yeas and nays?

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6 minutes ago, wxmet said:

If you want a big snow you're gonna have to play with some undercutting. I'd rather this than just dry and cold. That's boring.

Yeah, you want to be in that Winter battle zone.

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<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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7 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I just experienced the craziest day of my life. Normal, routine doctor's visit quickly spiraled into a seven hour stay in the ER for a MRI scan to check for malignant tumors or multiple sclerosis. Thankfully nothing was detected and my eye problem was resolved with a steroid prescription. Also the models look fantastic. And I'm sore from all the catheters and laying in one position for a quarter of a day. I need sleep.

Glad all is well! 🙏

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<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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Just now, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Yeah, you want to be in that Winter battle zone.

That "winter battle zone" is exactly what dropped 4 feet of snow here just two years ago next week.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Only this forum could put a negative spin on tonight's models.  Totally unreal.  Keep in mind a blend, which is most likely, would be fantastic.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yes... I am.

As modeled that would be a crazy day.   Heavy snow... then strong winds... and heavy rain.    Of course its all speculative and the next run will look totally different as we have seen lately.    

 

Kind of like 12/29/96! Heavy snow in the morning to rain and wind by the afternoon! 

57604F7C-50D2-4829-8CF4-FD20DAD05341.jpeg

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Just now, paulb/eugene said:

image.gif.47738a7ece1e9b7bff6760ab2f1b7035.gifThis is what I like to call the James Bond pattern.  Really high stakes with frigid airmass interior WA/BC and undercutting moist Pacific flow from the west.  There will be a few winners and lots of losers.  

We don't even know that the undercutting will happen yet.  Maybe lots of winners and only a few losers is possible too.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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2 minutes ago, SalemDuck said:

The chicken littling on this site never ceases to amaze me

It would have happened in Jan 1950 too.  Drives me nuts.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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10 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Do you know that this regions biggest snow falls include dramatic warm ups and cool downs in a short period? 

That is true. Just don't want to see the snow gone too quickly.

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It would have happened in Jan 1950 too.  Drives me nuts.

We should start censoring content.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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I’m very happy with tonight’s models.  All I need is a nice arctic frontal passage and a little snow for two or three days.  Considering how this winter has gone that will be enough for me

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Undercutting is obviously happening just 12 hours later on the 00Z EPS... day 6.5

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-3131200 (3).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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35 minutes ago, wxmet said:

Great trend with the late week system. I don't think the north shifts are done.

Ah yes, we are now at that point where the northern and southern posters can turn on each other as they try to will the low into their ideal landfall locations. 

I'm glad we're even in the position to be talking about these details in this winter. 

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5 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

There's still the EPS tonight...

And then the GFS 06z and then the 12z...

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49 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It was hard to visit the abandoned course...9 back breaking (the root of all of my back and neck issues) years but was always so rewarding to have the course as nice as could be. 2005 and 2019 same view standing on 7 green looking back at the fairway. 

C32FCAEC-8739-4145-AECB-421F2BD048FF.jpeg

27866662-8860-4F54-AE3D-CD096B49ABFD.jpeg

I played there but don't remember too much of it....it was for a scramble tournament, and a friend drove.  After helping to host tournaments for 9 years, it was the first time I was at a tournament were I had no responsibilities.  While its probably the most sh**faced I have gotten at a tournament, I do remember I enjoyed the course and actually played well for all but 2 or 3 holes.  I got a little *too* sh**faced at one point, but we were luckily by the clubhouse so I was able to snag some food.  Good times.

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Very encouraged by what we’ve been seeing today on the models. Best not to focus on the details after the initial cold blast at this point as those details will change drastically run to run. What does matter is in the short term there’s lots less volatility regarding the first shot of cold air arriving. Models really seem to be locking in on that...odds are rapidly increasing for a decent blast. The details afterwards will work themselves out...but getting the cold air here in the first place is the key to getting snow in the first place. We will see how the models handle this...wether we moderate more quickly with a big overrunning event or an extended cold snap. Either option sounds pretty good. Either way looks like it’s about to get cold...IF it verifies this winter could go from dud to great in a hurry. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-63

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2 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I played there but don't remember too much of it....it was for a scramble tournament, and a friend drove.  After helping to host tournaments for 9 years, it was the first time I was at a tournament were I had no responsibilities.  While its probably the most sh**faced I have gotten at a tournament, I do remember I enjoyed the course and actually played well for all but 2 or 3 holes.  I got a little *too* sh**faced at one point, but we were luckily by the clubhouse so I was able to snag some food.  Good times.

What year was that? 

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