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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

BLI snowman

By BLI snowman
in West of the Rockies

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Posted by Bryant,

Let's see these 00z models shift north
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Skagit Weather Veteran

Skagit Weather

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

A more realistic 00Z GFS snowfall map (high resolution). The WB versions are usually way overstated for the GFS for some reason.    This is through Wednesday evening. 

snodpc_acc.us_nw (8).png

In some places probably, but not really for here or places within a few miles of the water. Because it shows accumulated snowfall, it refuses to show any accumulation on the ocean. That means no matter how snowy it actually will be, I'll still be in the white on this map.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Massive conflicted reports tonight!! And Tim’s snow map sucks, I like the other one better. 

Its not my snow map... other people have used it and its actually much more realistic for the GFS.    We know the GFS snow maps on WB are a joke.   They have a lower resolution.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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bainbridgekid Veteran

bainbridgekid

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

A more realistic 00Z GFS snowfall map (high resolution). The WB versions are usually way overstated for the GFS for some reason.    This is through Wednesday evening. 

snodpc_acc.us_nw (8).png

You often post this map (positive depth change) and it is not the right one to post because it accounts for melting.

This is what the 00z actually shows falling:

 

sn10_acc.us_nw (14).png

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

You often post this map (positive depth change) and it is not the right one to post because it accounts for melting.

This is what the 00z actually shows falling:

 

sn10_acc.us_nw (14).png

Good to know... I need to reset the link.   Although I would not think there would be much melting in this case.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Truly massive differences over the Pacific by day 6, compared to 18z. Actually looks better for sustaining cold in PNW.

Yeah... the troughs keep coming in from the west and just merging with the trough inland.

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-3228400.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted

Exciting stuff!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
Just now, wxmet said:

That low is in a good position if it ends up trending north in future runs.

Yeah... don't want it over WA now.   Then it would end up in BC.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted

I am pleased to announce the ICON is on board. 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_60.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
Just now, BLI snowman said:

No one posted the ICON!? 

It's safe to say it is now ON BOARD

00ZICON20621.thumb.png.db3ea7bfd1821b72b6fe63168340a7d8.png

 

00ZICONSNOW.thumb.png.a3f93fc63b1c8eeb8b7a0d5668a0367b.png

Ha!   Andrew beat you by one second.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted

The ICON is very cold next week. That first low goes into S. Oregon and produces a major snow event from about Roseburg-Eugene. 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_48.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted

GFS finally throws some light snow up into W. WA. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted

Oh guys. GEM looks MUCH colder. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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