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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 6.9"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 

2020-21: 10.5" (2/10: Tr, 2/12: 0.5" , 2/13: 8.5", 2/14: 1.5")

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I just experienced the craziest day of my life. Normal, routine doctor's visit quickly spiraled into a seven hour stay in the ER for a MRI scan to check for malignant tumors or multiple sclerosis. Tha

Downvote this post if you want snow.

Good morning,  As you know, back in late December I decided to end my jovial "ranting" here among you soulless bastard's to focus on more personal matters.  Well despite my better judgement

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8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think Rob could onto something.  Crazy cold air in play with evaporative cooling to help out.

The Euro is clearly already depicting a ridiculous amount of low level cold compared to what would be expected based on the mid and upper level conditions. Temps around 20 with precip is hard to come by around here. It’s happened three times this century.

Now if the model was depicting -20c with thicknesses in the low 500’s, I could see letting your imagination running a little more wild.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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7 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I’m just always skeptical when the models want to push a big blob of very cold air over us with undercutting moisture, when there really isn’t much of a 500mb mechanism to push it/hold it south. Not much of a coherent offshore blocking signal on these runs.

Verbatim the cold derives from the fact the TPV itself (IE: the cold air machine) is dislodged into SW Canada by a *retrograding* -NAO. The retrograde is the key. Pacific blocking is mediocre, sure, but even mediocre upstream blocking might be sufficient here, given the forcing is quasi-inverted..it isn’t coming from the Pacific early on.

How the Pacific evolves after the retrogression is much more important (for duration of the cold).

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Just now, MossMan said:

The plow is still waiting and hoping! 

F60C5573-7945-4051-BF1B-20B6BCFC61AD.jpeg

I recant my previous "in your face" comment. 

You know what, cut the kiddie pool up and put a piece of it on your daughters tractor as a makeshift plow, you can never have too many superstitions. 

Right?

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Verbatim the cold derives from the fact the TPV itself (IE: the cold air machine) is dislodged into SW Canada by a *retrograding* -NAO. Pacific blocking is mediocre, sure, but that might be sufficient given the forcing isn’t actually coming from the Pacific during the early stages.

Sure hope so!! 🥶 ❄️ ⛄️ 

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

The Euro is clearly already depicting a ridiculous amount of low level cold compared to what would be expected based on the mid and upper level conditions.  Temps around 20 with precip is hard to come by around here. It’s happened three times this century.

Now if the model was depicting -20c with thicknesses in the low 500’s, I could see letting your imagination running a little more wild.

A day such as 12/20/08 or 2/6/14 would be reasonable if this solution were to verify... 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 10

500h_anom.na.png

Cold, cold, and more cold!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 37

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

The Euro is clearly already depicting a ridiculous amount of low level cold compared to what would be expected based on the mid and upper level conditions.  Temps around 20 with precip is hard to come by around here. It’s happened three times this century.

Now if the model was depicting -20c with thicknesses in the low 500’s, I could see letting your imagination running a little more wild.

You're definitely right, but didn't Portland have afternoon snow falling with temps in the teens 7 years ago today?

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Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

The plow is still waiting and hoping! 

F60C5573-7945-4051-BF1B-20B6BCFC61AD.jpeg

You need to put a plow on the little one!  How cute would that be?

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 37

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Sure hope so!! 🥶 ❄️ ⛄️ 

You and me both. Really pulling for you Oregon guys after the disaster that was last winter.

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Just now, Phil said:

You and me both. Really pulling for you Oregon guys after the disaster that was last winter.

I’m pulling for Moss Man 🥺

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Just now, Kolk1604 said:

 

sfct.us_state_wa (3).png

That would be the coldest temps here in Tacoma since November 2010. 

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-15

Monthly rainfall-0.47”

Cold season rainfall-32.56”

Snowfall-15.5”

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24 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Warm nose is gonna get me Saturday morning. This looks a lot like February 2014 btw. 

Yep, was just going to say that.  I'm just north of you at 310ft near Estacada.  Classic warm nose.  I've still got the one from 2018 sitting over me. 

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BTW...the next low goes well south of hear and leaves a cold / dry day here with snow on the ground.  Afternoon temps still only mid 30s on Monday.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 37

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

You're definitely right, but didn't Portland have snow falling in the teens 7 years ago today?

I think they bottomed out at 19 or 20, which would be in line with the Euro which depicts a slightly warmer mid and upper level air mass overall.  This 12-14 degree stuff is pretty silly to consider for almost a week later.

Point is, it’s hard enough to do in mid winter, let alone by mid February.  2014 in itself was unprecedented.  

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Pepto from Tacoma to Salem in this run!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 37

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Here was some fun research... Record Min Max and Mins at PDX and the Downtown station February 11-14th

 

PDX

Record Min Max          Record Lows

11th: 38 (1981)             24 (1948)

12th: 35 (1990)           24  (1948)

13th: 31 (1995)            23 (1990)

14th: 34 (1990)            16 (1995)

 

Downtown station

Record Min Max              Record Low

11th: 25 (1884)                   12 (1884)

12th: 29 (1884)                    7 (1884)

13th: 31 (1884)                   12 (1884)

14th: 25 (1900)                   10 (1884)

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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12Z EPS... day 5.   This is actually a bit east of the 00Z run.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-3044800 (2).png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-3044800 (4).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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LOL

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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All of the lows on the ECMWF map on Tuesday morning (next week) are from 9 to 17.  That is the NW view.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 37

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS... day 5.   This is actually a bit east of the 00Z run.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-3044800 (2).png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-3044800 (4).png

In this case a bit east might be better.  It sure was on the op run.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 37

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS... day 5.   This is actually a bit east of the 00Z run.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-3044800 (2).png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-3044800 (4).png

Someone is going to get buried in ZR with that pattern. Just screams low level cold advection across the CONUS.

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Clear undercutting signal on Friday afternoon per the 12Z EPS...

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-3174400 (3).png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-3174400 (1).png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

In this case a bit east might be better.  It sure was on the op run.

East could be good at this point since it could mean greater southward penetration of arctic air/less undercutting initially.

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18 minutes ago, Phil said:

Verbatim the cold derives from the fact the TPV itself (IE: the cold air machine) is dislodged into SW Canada by a *retrograding* -NAO. The retrograde is the key. Pacific blocking is mediocre, sure, but even mediocre upstream blocking might be sufficient here, given the forcing is quasi-inverted..it isn’t coming from the Pacific early on.

How the Pacific evolves after the retrogression is much more important (for duration of the cold).

Is the pattern now starting to evolve the way you originally expected?

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

EPS... day 7

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-3217600 (2).png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-3217600 (2).png

What a monster blast we are looking at across the US. Gonna freeze the out of this COVID-19.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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I like how the models aren't trending in any one bad direction.  That's a good thing in my book.  The door is wide open for a great outcome.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 37

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 hour ago, ..... said:

It's not warning trends man.  It's ******* reality.  The way the models show the cold building in and dropping down over Montana and then spreading WEST are insane.  RARELY does a pattern like that verify.  What gets us cold is a nice Omega block out in the Pacific shooting north and a SE ridge to steer things over the west coast.  We don't have that.  The driver is the Greenland Block.  Just watch it on the loops.  Reality is what reality is.

No amount of Jim sky screaming and telling everyone something historic is coming makes it any more likely to happen.  Oh, and my daffodils don't want cold and snow.

So what you’re saying is you were never onboard and anyone who was is a damn fool.

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Only the GFS was a dud. EURO, GEM, ICON were terrific. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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In case anyone missed it. GEM had 850mb temps -20C or below from about Eugene - north. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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The Euro spits out a low of 13 for SEA next Tuesday.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 37

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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The EPS is not that cold at the 850mb level next weekend... but neither was the ECMWF and it did not matter.    It looks pretty similar to me... cold enough air in place and a pattern that would bring copious moisture.

And cue the Jaws music for Phil!

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-3260800.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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In case anyone was wondering. The latest it has been 15 or lower at PDX (For a low) was 2-6-1989. The downtown station which has data from before 1938 is a much different story. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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The EPS control is exactly like the operational.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 37

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

The EPS is not that cold next weekend per the EPS... but neither was the ECMWF and it did not matter.    It looks pretty similar to me... cold enough air in place and a pattern that would bring copious moisture.

And cue the Jaws music for Phil!

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-3260800.png

This has the potential to be one of the greatest blasts of the 21st Century nationally. Have we even had a coast to coast blast this Century?!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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