February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[Rubus Leucodermis]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

No BAM for WA.   

Will trend north.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM Day 6.5 850s. Canucks want to play too

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oh guys. GEM looks MUCH colder. 

Some epic backdoor action there!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I am pleased to announce the ICON is on board. 

Some lucky soul(s) are going to get clobbered next week!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEM has the 492 Thickness line into E. Oregon/WA by hour 156. Totally insane. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Some epic backdoor action there!

Never a bad thing!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Uhhh

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Uhhh

LORD HAVE MERCY!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well the ICON and GEM are much colder than the GFS. 

[Winterdog]

But it's just the GEM!   And the ICON isn't worth mentioning

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 9'er

[Christensen87]

[Phil]

 

1 minute ago, Acer said:

But it's just the GEM!   And the ICON isn't worth mentioning

Don’t know much about the ICON. GEM might be erroneous with the SW US cutoff later in the run but can’t discount anything at this point.

[Omegaraptor]

Goddamn, GEM is a full on mountain wave Arctic blast. Not only that, but it goes all the way down to... Baja.

 

These are 4PM temps, by the way.

[SouthHillFrosty]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Uhhh

If this verifies, I’ll jump into the sound off a pier at Ruston 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The angle of the blast from the cmc reminds me of the old gfs when it forgot the cascades were there.

[Blizzard777]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

If this verifies, I’ll jump into the sound off a pier at Ruston 

You’ve run out of houses?

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

Goddamn, GEM is a full on mountain wave Arctic blast. Not only that, but it goes all the way down to... Baja.

 

These are 4PM temps, by the way.

I love those grid temps... exactly where the stations are located!  

 

[Deweydog]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[GHweatherChris]

I hear a critter out by the garbage can, uh oh...

[bainbridgekid]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Uhhh

December 2013.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Going to be a long week! 

[JW8]

Mean is colder than 18z and OPER moderates quicker than the mean after bottoming out.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM Day 1-6 500mb a thing of beauty

[Frontal Snowsquall]

FWIW the 00z UKMET at days 5 and 6. Have to wait for it to load on pivotal to see the 850mb temperatures. 

[JW8]

1 minute ago, JW8 said:

Mean is colder than 18z and OPER moderates quicker than the mean after bottoming out.

I lied...mean is not quite as cold as 18Z.

[Kolk1604]

Too bad there isn't a local view on pivotal... 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The GEM is completely off the rails. I love it. 

[Winterdog]

I'm happy with the GFS 0Z, it's cold pretty much throughout the run with some snowfall.  Seattle still has a high in the 20's and a bunch in the 30's.  I'm keeping my cup on for the EURO though.

[wxmet]

UKMET 00z has no snow from SEA to PDX but it does get cold. Let's hope the Euro has a mind of its own.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, Acer said:

I'm happy with the GFS 0Z, it's cold pretty much throughout the run with some snowfall.  Seattle still has a high in the 20's and a bunch in the 30's.  I'm keeping my cup on for the EURO though.

FYI, the GFS waaay overdid the cold air advection last year.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Just now, wxmet said:

UKMET 00z has no snow from SEA to PDX but it does get cold. Let's hope the Euro has a mind of its own.

00z UKMET 850mb temperatures day 5 and 6. Not as good as the GFS and GEM but still decent. Onto the 00z King EURO!

 

 

[paulb/eugene]

Iconic

[Winterdog]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

FYI, the GFS waaay overdid the cold air advection last year.

You just broke my heart.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

FYI, the GFS waaay overdid the cold air advection last year.

Yeah... GFS temp output has always been garbage.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This is the definition of coast to coast cold!

[GHweatherChris]

I keep thinking about back in the day and listening to NOAA radio leading up to a "historicish" blast coming and then the dissapointment of the one broadcast that said that they overestimated the data and all the cold air is heading east, within just hours of said event to begin.

I have that feeling again.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... GFS temp output has always been garbage.   

You don't think PDX will see a high of 22 next week?!

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

00z GEFS is fairly noticeably east with the trough through D6, unfortunately.

Hoping the 00z Euro continues the improvements from the 18z run.

Not good.