February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You don't think PDX will see a high of 22 next week?!

Doubt they get that warm.  

[MossMan]

Raining again!! 
Up to .95” on the day. 

[MWG]

13 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

December 2013.

My first experience with very cold weather that year lol. 

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This is the definition of coast to coast cold!

 

12 in Santa Barbara! 

[bainbridgekid]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This is the definition of coast to coast cold!

That is sub zero temps across literally 2/3 of the entire country at the same time. 

[GeorgeWx]

19 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

FWIW the 00z UKMET at days 5 and 6. Have to wait for it to load on pivotal to see the 850mb temperatures. 

slides east

[snow_wizard]

Are you people ready to get cold?  It sure looks likely now.  The GEM was pretty epic and kind of support my idea the GFS might be holding back too much given the extreme nature of the back digging that's going to be happening.  Another thing to bear in mind is the low level cold may be quite impressive compared to what 850s might suggest in this situation. 

[The Swamp]

None of the cold is going to make it here.  The pattern modeled just doesn't account for the large mountains.  This is all going to push east.

Money Back Guarantee 

[Omegaraptor]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Are you people ready to get cold?  It sure looks likely now.  The GEM was pretty epic and kind of support my idea the GFS might be holding back too much given the extreme nature of the back digging that's going to be happening.  Another thing to bear in mind is the low level cold may be quite impressive compared to what 850s might suggest in this situation. 

Just hoping we can get colder 850hpa temps west of the Cascades so when the actual moisture comes, we get snow and not ice.

Let's see what the Euro says.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

12 in Santa Barbara! 

Very common. 

[Omegaraptor]

6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

12 in Santa Barbara! 

If that verifies, gonna be pretty damaging to palms and citrus trees down there.

[paulb/eugene]

Seriously ...could start another forest fire

[GeorgeWx]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Are you people ready to get cold?  It sure looks likely now.  The GEM was pretty epic and kind of support my idea the GFS might be holding back too much given the extreme nature of the back digging that's going to be happening.  Another thing to bear in mind is the low level cold may be quite impressive compared to what 850s might suggest in this situation. 

You must not have seen the Ukmet 

[snow_wizard]

Wonder what the extracted data will be from the GEM.  It would have to show highs around 20 given the looks of it.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, ..... said:

None of the cold is going to make it here.  The pattern modeled just doesn't account for the large mountains.  This is all going to push east.

Money Back Guarantee 

Oh brother.  The mountains are factored in.  Are you aware 850s dropped to around -20 with cold straight from the east in Feb 2006?  It just takes a strong persistent push and the cold air can make it.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Oh brother.  The mountains are factored in.  Are you aware 850s dropped to around -20 with cold straight from the east in Feb 2006?  It just takes a strong persistent push and the cold air can make it.

I will bet you any reasonable amount of money you choose that it will not hit 12˚F in Santa Barbara this month.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, GeorgeWx said:

Only the Ukmet sees how massive the Rockies are. The GEM sees no mountains

People way under estimate how cold air can clear the mountains given the right pattern.  The 500mb configuration being progged speaks for itself.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I will bet you any reasonable amount of money you choose that it will not hit 12˚F in Santa Barbara this month.

That would be pretty insane.  The cold air will likely be held pretty far north in the far west.

[Timmy Supercell]

Had 1.6" fall on the 3rd. This next 5-6 days look dry so it won't snow until mid month.

Just came off three consecutive below normal snow months which doesn't look good for the overall winter, maybe February changes things.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Oh brother.  The mountains are factored in.  Are you aware 850s dropped to around -20 with cold straight from the east in Feb 2006?  It just takes a strong persistent push and the cold air can make it.

What was the coldest high in Seattle during that event?

Starting on 2/15... Snoqualmie Falls had 40, 41, 45, 35, 43, 45, 42

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEM was bone dry. ICON was cold and had moisture. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Euro is a bit weak for Oregon mountains snowfall but shows more up in Washington.

My next somewhat decent snowfall is about a week from now on pivotalweather.

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

What was the coldest high in Seattle during that event?

Starting on 2/15... Snoqualmie Falls had 40, 41, 45, 35, 43, 45, 42

SEA's coldest afternoon was 37. PDX benefitted a little more from the gorge and managed a 31F afternoon high with full sunshine, which was pretty impressive. That was a pure easterly event, almost no Fraser River outflow at all.

[Deweydog]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Oh brother.  The mountains are factored in.  Are you aware 850s dropped to around -20 with cold straight from the east in Feb 2006?  It just takes a strong persistent push and the cold air can make it.

That 2006 blast doesn’t get much love due to its mundanity, but it was a beast.

Important to note it had much more formidable Pacific blocking.

#teleconnectionsANDblacklivesmatter

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

SEA's coldest afternoon was 37. PDX benefitted a little more from the gorge and managed a 31F afternoon high with full sunshine, which was pretty impressive. That was a pure easterly event, almost no Fraser River outflow at all.

Interestingly... I remember being in Bellingham looking at homes with my parents during that event and the wind was roaring from the NE up there under crystal clear skies.

[MossMan]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

What was the coldest high in Seattle during that event?

Starting on 2/15... Snoqualmie Falls had 40, 41, 45, 35, 43, 45, 42

That’s what I have had for highs over the last week! 
Except for the 35. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

That’s what I have had for highs over the last week! 

That was in the Snoqualmie Valley with what I have now learned was 850mb temps of -20C in the middle of February! 

[MossMan]

Matt is still not onboard. 

[BLI snowman]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Interestingly... I remember being in Bellingham looking at homes with my parents during that event and the wind was roaring from the NE up there under crystal clear skies.

It was more of a downslope component there with that. BLI hit 37 on the 17th as PDX stayed below freezing. The CAA was all focused through the easterlies.

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

That was in the Snoqualmie Valley with what I have now learned was 850mb temps of -20C in the middle of February! 

I think he meant November 2006. That was fun 

[TT-SEA]

Anyone staying up for the ECMWF??

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, MossMan said:

Matt is still not onboard. 

He wasn't in 2019 either.  I remember every one of those frightening posts. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

I think he meant November 2006. That was fun 

No... Jim was specifically referring to February 2006.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Anyone staying up for the ECMWF??

Nah I think we should all get our rest and pick up again on Monday. 

[bainbridgekid]

Little bit of CZ/arctic front snow Monday morning on the WRF.

 

[snow drift]

14 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

That 2006 blast doesn’t get much love due to its mundanity, but it was a beast.

Important to note it had much more formidable Pacific blocking.

#teleconnectionsANDblacklivesmatter

Nasty winds..There were 60 mph gusts nearby in Post Falls, Idaho.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

Little bit of CZ/arctic front snow Monday morning on the WRF.

 

Push that north 10 miles...Or I need to buy my old house back. 

[Requiem]

Shades of 2006, maybe blocking isn’t as good though but the cold is certainly there.

[MossMan]

I do not remember anything from February 2006. 

[snow drift]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

Shades of 2006, maybe blocking isn’t as good though but the cold is certainly there.

I enjoyed the Feb 06 event. I'll take it.