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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


BLI snowman

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

December isn’t all that far away if you really think about it...

2008 redux! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

December isn’t all that far away if you really think about it...

So true... February seemed like an eternity away when the 1988-89 analogs were flying around last fall but here we are! 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Major dumpage again. Pretty soon I am going to be complaining about this nonstop rain like it was early February 2018 all over again. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 minute ago, wxmet said:

I suppose if it doesn't show a stalled out snow storm over the PNW with crashing 500mb heights then it's a dud run.

If you want people to fire up the cheering section for a run that essentially showed climo at the tail end of a terrible winter, then have it....

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This could qualify as the highest model uncertainty of the past 10 years at least.  With the 0z runs tonight there were significant changes even before day 5.  The biggy is the low in the vicinity of Hawaii cuts off more fully which sets the stage for the possibility of a cold pattern emerging within a week.  This is supported by a number of ensemble members.

I for one cant wait to see how this all plays out!  I wonder when the models the models will finally settle down an arrive at some kind of consensus.  Right now the run to run consistency is amazingly poor.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

If you want people to fire up the cheering section for a run that essentially showed climo at the tail end of a terrible winter, then have it....

Climo is refreshing in a torch fest winter. Bread crumbs are a banquet to a starving man.

 

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Just now, Snowdrift said:

We can put 1988-89 as an analog to rest.

It actually wasn’t/isn’t terrible if your reference is the large scale/NH picture. The details were very different, however.

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19 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

There's always the possibility for a change in the models. Analyzing that run in a straightforward or objective context would reveal that it was largely mild and poor for snow chances in the region. A "dud run". It need not be controversial to point that out.

And the CMC looks nothing like the GFS.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Not bad!

Unfortunately it’s not 9-10 days out.

I agree... that pattern shown at day 1 looks like it has tons of potential.    No chance it verifies though. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Holy crap!  Talk about a bad hair day on the 0z ensemble!  Those members are all over the place.  A lot of cold ones for sure.  Incredibly complicated pattern coming up.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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IMO it would be ridiculous to throw in the towel at this point, but that's just me.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The day 4 surface pressure configuration over the GOA on this run is worlds better than last night's day 5 on the ECMWF.  Amazing to see that kind of change at such close range.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 6 Yep. Just like the GFS

500h_anom.na.png

 

 

Such a strange pattern... and totally different than previous runs and yet the 00Z GFS and ECMWF runs actually agree almost perfectly at that time.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

0.56” of rain today, 47/43°F. I missed the rain, it has a sort of quiet dignity to it..

Wow... I totally was totally off.   It looks like the watershed station has an issue with the rain gauge under-reporting now.    I see now that there was .66 in North Bend.     Today was definitely wetter than previous days but it seemed like it was very light rain during the day.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yup it’s about to get chilly in a lot of places starting in 4-5 days. That’s an effective pattern for mobile polar high production. 

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