February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[Jbolin]

6 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

WRF-GFS has quite a bit of precipitation around tomorrow evening from about Everett to Mount Vernon, but it shows temps just a touch too warm for anything to accumulate except maybe in the higher hills and heavier showers around that area.

Appetizer 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

2 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

YUP THATS SINGLE DIGITS

I would have thought the GEM would warm up a little bit but it's gotten colder. Wild crazy frigid anomalies!

[Phil]

Where’s Flatiron to tell us this is all impossible because it’s NAO driven?  

[TacomaWaWx]

I’m not sure that single digits across the board will verify...but it definitely feels like it’s about to get pretty chilly next week. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEM is pretty nuts. GFS took a step forward for sure. 

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

You it’s legit when someone says “I hope the models pull back”. #TooColdToSnow

But it does happen... when its cold and all the moisture stays away.   Some examples include... February 2006, December 2013, February 2014.    

[Jbolin]

8 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Lol. The GEM is showing some day after tomorrow type . 

GEM was one of the leading suites in Feb'19 wasn't it?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS is still WAY warmer than the GEM and ICON. 

[snow drift]

Dry, cold, and sunny weather is coming.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

But it does happen... when its cold and all the moisture stays away.   Some examples include... February 2006, December 2013, February 2014.    

Oh I know what you mean. Nothing sucks more than wasted cold..basically the story of my existence here.

[Perturbed Member]

Meh, nothing to see. Just your usual -22c 850mb temp over PDX.

[Jbolin]

4 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

I would have thought the GEM would warm up a little bit but it's gotten colder. Wild crazy frigid anomalies!

Look at all that "spillage" out the gorge and Fraser valley

[Skagit Weather]

Yeah, like I said last night. Give everyone an inch or two of snow with the arctic front and then let it get cold.

[Omegaraptor]

Plot twist: GEM verifies, leaving the GooFuS and Dethroned King Euro in the dust. Not before a couple of trends colder of course. Bye bye California citrus industry and palm trees.

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, Skagit Weather said:

Yeah, like I said last night. Give everyone an inch or two of snow with the arctic front and then let it get cold.

I’d be so happy with just that. 

[snow drift]

Where is the Wizard?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Good lord. GEM has a system come down from the north bringing snow and re-enforcing the cold air!

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

But it does happen... when its cold and all the moisture stays away.   Some examples include... February 2006, December 2013, February 2014.    

You gonna take the boat out next week? Looks like perfect lake weather to me.

[MossMan]

8 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Just a high of 23 in Seattle on Friday. No biggie. 

Reminds me of January 1996

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Trends are good! GFS will continue to improve.

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, Snowdrift said:

Where is the Wizard?

He will be here shortly. He’s probably freaking out currently and needs to compose himself before he gets on. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phil said:

You gonna take the boat out next week? Looks like perfect lake weather to me.

No... its winterized.  

[Jbolin]

Just now, MossMan said:

Reminds me of January 1996

That's umm, what his ^%@$@^& name?

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Yeah, like I said last night. Give everyone an inch or two of snow with the arctic front and then let it get cold.

An inch would probably sublimate away quickly, so better make it 2". I find 2" to be about the aesthetic cutoff for a really appealing snowfall, with the trees and plants nicely coated and enough ground covering to withstand the incoming -50F dewpoints.

[GHweatherChris]

This is not gonna end up good, nothing awesome is even close to the believable range.

[Christensen87]

 

[Phil]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

No... its winterized.  

Then..un-winterize it?

[snow drift]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

He will be here shortly. He’s probably freaking out currently and needs to compose himself before he gets on. 

A cold shower and a cigarette

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

If We actually get an arctic front there should be plenty of moisture in the atmosphere to squeeze out, models won't see that till it's on us.

[Phil]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

If We actually get an arctic front there should be plenty of moisture in the atmosphere to squeeze out, models won't see that till it's on us.

That’s a nice benefit you guys have. If it gets real cold it’s almost certainly going to snow.

Ain’t the case here.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

He will be here shortly. He’s probably freaking out currently and needs to compose himself before he gets on. 

The GFS looks like a February 2006 scenario... 850mb temp of -20C with an east wind and dry air.   Coldest high was 37 in Seattle.    Randy said he does not even remember it.    

Of course the ECMWF showed tons of snow so that is where I would put my money now.    

[smerfylicious]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

If We actually get an arctic front there should be plenty of moisture in the atmosphere to squeeze out, models won't see that till it's on us.

Enough for 2 inches? Perhaps. 

Would be nice to have a low form in the Aleutians and ride down the coast dumping snowy goodness while not totally ruining the arctic temps.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Amazing the GFS is the warm one and it’s still decent. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

An inch would probably sublimate away quickly, so better make it 2". I find 2" to be about the aesthetic cutoff for a really appealing snowfall, with the trees and plants nicely coated and enough ground covering to withstand the incoming -50F dewpoints.

You are right that an inch of snow would probably disappear in the wind and sun regardless of the temp.   2-3 inches would be much better.

[snow drift]

3 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

This is not gonna end up good, nothing awesome is even close to the believable range.

We're all having a weenie moment

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

The GFS looks like a February 2006 scenario... 850mb temp of -20C with an east wind and dry air.   Coldest high was 37 in Seattle.    Randy said he does not even remember it.    

Of course the ECMWF showed tons of snow so that is where I would put my money now.    

We will see what happens. 

[bainbridgekid]

CZ snow continues well into Monday on the WRF. It'll never be able to pick up on the exact location and strength of CZ's, but I've learned not to discount it when it shows a solid band of 3+ inches like this.

 

[snow drift]

1 minute ago, smerfylicious said:

Enough for 2 inches? Perhaps. 

Would be nice to have a low form in the Aleutians and ride down the coast dumping snowy goodness while not totally ruining the arctic temps.

A la January 12th 1950

[RentonHill]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

If We actually get an arctic front there should be plenty of moisture in the atmosphere to squeeze out, models won't see that till it's on us.

Was curious about the mechanics of these. If we see the front a-coming - is there a way to measure how much current moisture would translate into precip?

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

CZ snow continues well into Monday on the WRF. It'll never be able to pick up on the exact location and strength of CZ's, but I've learned not to discount it when it shows a solid band of 3+ inches like this.

 

Keep in mind the ECMWF is still not showing much snow through Wednesday morning... but does on Wednesday.    The ECMWF has temps in the 40s with a SW wind on Monday and Tuesday.   I am not expecting much if any snow until Wednesday.