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The -50F has been confirmed. It was at a lodge on Snowbank Lake- an entry point to the great Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness.

Lincoln got down to -31 this morning, the second coldest ever recorded there! -30 degrees was common in South Central Nebraska. My weather station had -25 for the min this morning. 

We didn't get the extreme cold lows, but Cedar Rapids officially spent 108 consecutive hours below zero, ending midday today.  That's the most since 1996.

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hard PASS

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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The historically warm GL's and lack of ice cover is about to deliver the real deal snow blitz for the GL's over the next 10 days.  Your patience in the snow belts will be rewarded Bigly.

1.png

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anybody know what the highlighted means? Never heard of it before.

The weather theme for Friday into this weekend and at least early
next week will be the bitterly cold air as the upper level pattern
carves out a trough over much of the northern states. The coldest
shot will come Sunday morning with thickness down to 490dm over
northern Iowa and 850mb temperatures to around -30C. Wind chill
headlines will be needed as early as Saturday evening and likely
through Monday morning for some portions of the state, though it
looks likely there will be a period where most if not all of our
central Iowa counties may need a headline for the bitterly cold wind
chills. The cold air looks to relent to some degree next week, but
is not far away and it would only take another shortwave trough
dropping to bring another shot of bitterly cold air. For Sunday into
Monday, the 12z ECMWF extreme forecast index and the shift of tails
is starting to show a signal, which gives an idea of the magnitude
of this arctic air within climatology.

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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If you actually goto the link- some -70F Wind Chills showing up S.Manitoba. Can't remember the last time I saw that.  -75F or soo is -100F on the old Chart pre 2001 for us old geezers. I experience -100F WC one time on Lake Mille Lacs in C.MN in the winter of 95-96' -- 100lb propane tanks in shed of fish house froze solid. WAS an EXPERIENCE I will not forget.

sfctapp.us_nc.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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7 hours ago, Tom said:

The historically warm GL's and lack of ice cover is about to deliver the real deal snow blitz for the GL's over the next 10 days.  Your patience in the snow belts will be rewarded Bigly.

1.png

Looks to be too much of a WNW instead of a NW for here but that can always change last minute.

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Probably won't get out of the double digits below zero here on Sunday.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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5 minutes ago, St Paul Storm said:

12z Ukie has a low of -47F just to the NW of Des Moines on Monday morning.  Strangely that temp is almost identical in Celsius! Rare air!

The only temp at which both are equal is........-40!!!

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Actually a rare good write-up from FGF.

Quote

Wednesday night - Thursday:

- Synoptics:

A broad upper trough passes through the region Wed PM-Thu AM
bringing with it a potent cold front on the head of a large polar
air mass. In the mid levels, there will likely be two or more short
wave impulses that focus ascent: one passing through the
Dakotas/Minnesota/southern Canada, and the other ejecting out of the
Central Plains into the western Great Lakes. The northern wave will
influence the CWA more than the southern.

- Accumulating snow potential:

The forecast currently reflects a scenario where the northern wave
remains on the weaker side and/or strengthens deeper within MB/ON.
This results in comparatively lesser amounts overall with light
QPF amounts under 0.2 inches for most locations within the CWA,
which can be translated to under 3 inches of snow. This scenario
is favored within the eyes of the ENS/EC/CMCE.

However there are complicating factors that greatly lessen
confidence in the snowfall forecast. Firstly, there is still a
chance one or more northern waves interact closer to the area
while become stronger, increasing snowfall potential via a more
defined synoptically induced snow band. This is a scenario
currently favored by GEFS/GFS/NAM.

Additionally, most guidance also appears to mingle some transient,
but notable fgen nestled in with the mid level trough passage
just behind the cold front Wednesday overnight into early
Thursday. So this continues the chance for brief (under 6 hours),
locally enhanced snowfall leading to higher amounts greater than 3
inches. Due to the transient nature of fgen, this could result in
one or more narrow bands of higher snowfall amounts draped across
the region. Location of these bands will be unknown until just
before the time of their development, thus confidence in snow
amounts remains low (less than 30%).

Overall, impacts from snowfall could range from very little to
locally impactful through heavy snowfall rates reducing visibility
and accumulating snowfall deteriorating travel conditions.

- Blowing snow potential:

In the absence of a strongly deepening mid level trough and
attendant sfc low near the area, winds don`t look overly strong.
This lessens the chance for widespread significant impacts from
blsn. Still, sustained winds between 25-35 mph and falling temps
into the single digits look to be enough to interact with the
somewhat modified snowpack and potentially new snow to get some
areas of blowing snow, mainly during the day Thursday. This most
likely scenario still brings visibility periodically under a half
mile in the typical locations like the open country within the Red
River Valley. So while travel may not be impossible, it still is
expected to be impacted Thursday.

- Icing potential:

A well advertised dry "warm" sector ahead of the trough brings the
chance for initial precip type to be a wintry mix of brief freezing
rain and/or sleet before switching to snow. Additionally, there may
be a period of freezing drizzle Wednesday afternoon/evening,
dependent on any leading impulses ahead of the trough to interact
with sufficiently deep saturation within the lowest layer. Both
scenarios will likley be brief and result in very light QPF amounts
under 0.1 inches. Thus impacts to travel from a light glaze to
perhaps locally one tenth of an inch should be low.

Friday - Monday:

Ensemble guidance and analogs all agree on a below average
temperature pattern starting Friday and lasting through next week.
Cold advection starts Thursday night and reaches its peak Saturday
night/Sunday.  Temperatures will remain below zero from Friday night
through Monday, with lows at night widespread -20s with daytime
highs single digits and teens below zero.  Main center of high is
well northwest of the area in Alberta and therefore there will be
enough of a gradient to give NW winds in the 10 to 20 mph range
Saturday through Sunday.  This wind may prevent extreme cold
temperatures from occuring at night, but the wind will give
hazardous wind chills in the -20s to -40s over the weekend.  Dry
weather is anticipated.  Sky cover a bit tougher to forecast with
center of high well northwest of our area, we may be prone to cloud
cover, especially MN.

 

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Lows in the -20s combined with wind gusts well into the 20s will make for an interesting experience. It's super rare to get that combo. Could see wind chills colder than January 2019 with that wind speed.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Wind chills into the -50s in my area on Euro Monday morning.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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This morning's Euro has backed off the extreme cold plunging south into Iowa early in the week, in favor of a slightly flatter pattern  producing long-duration very cold.  It doesn't bring the coldest air down until day 10.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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25 minutes ago, brianc400 said:

image.thumb.png.8add097ddc9a4ecd8a8d5045f0cf23ad.png

No way this plays out, but wouldn't that be something?

The above is likely WAY over done -- but just for the record the coldest IA had ever been is -47F in Elkader,IA on FEB 3rd 1996. Just to see a model go near there is nuts in itself.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said:

Day 10 EURO wind chills--- hmmm... sfctapp.us_mw.png

Would take a significant amount of blocking to make wind chills 15 degrees colder in Iowa than the Dakotas and Northwoods.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Not so fast. -- Deeper snow pack, and wind. Doesn't take much when ND.NW.MN has little to offer this year. I;ve seen wind chills -45F in NW IA when they were 0F in NW MN. It does happen. ODD, but this is year is odd. NW IOWA is a D**n cold space when the wind blows with Nanook - much like ND.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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19 hours ago, jaster220 said:

hard PASS

To be clear I meant on the extreme cold

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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There is certainly a trend to not dig the extreme cold as far south.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Does NWS take into account LES when they forecast below normal precip for a good majority of the cold snap?

 

814prcp.new.gif

 

Just curious because weather app (which i never really look at) went from showing snowflakes to just cloudy for mby

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Temps alone don't look super impressive, but could go a week without hitting 15 here which is pretty significant. GFS has a HIGH of 1 at KLNK for Monday. Probably overdone, but I wouldn't be surprised to have 3-4 days of highs in the single digits within this stretch. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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2 hours ago, whatitdo said:

Does NWS take into account LES when they forecast below normal precip for a good majority of the cold snap?

 

814prcp.new.gif

 

Just curious because weather app (which i never really look at) went from showing snowflakes to just cloudy for mby

Good to see the drought areas west of me in the green zone at least.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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This morning's Euro at day 10.  This should be quite a stretch of winter coming up.

850th.conus.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Let's goooooo

Quote

May be an image of map, sky and text that says '107 Forecast Hours with Temperature Below Zero Friday Night (2/5) through Wednesday Afternoon (2/10)- 120 Possible Hours 101 95 Alexandria 110 Little Falls 102 89 Morris 102 Mora 98 St. Cloud 97 83 of 77 mo Number 71 Madison 53 Willmar 96 Rice Lake 93 Osceola 87 Ladysmith 83 Hutchinson 92 65 Redwood Falls 78 59 Eau Claire 79 Red Wing 74、 53 Mankato 84 Faribault 88 35 LTRA 90 Fairmont 82 90 AlbertLea 82'

 

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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3 hours ago, whatitdo said:

Does NWS take into account LES when they forecast below normal precip for a good majority of the cold snap?

 

814prcp.new.gif

 

Just curious because weather app (which i never really look at) went from showing snowflakes to just cloudy for mby

Weather apps are trash.  The iphone one has 40% chance of snow for me Friday.  LES in cold weather the lake is basically producing it itself.  It's so dry.  10 degrees it could be 30-1 ratio or higher so 6 inches of LES could be .1 qpf.  

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After dipping below zero Friday night, it is very possible that I may not get back above zero until next Friday. The earliest I could get back above zero is Wednesday.

Winter is kicking the door down. Just wish it was with a bit more snow on the ground. At least I'm not in Valley City, where the ground is literally brown.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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It stays frigid for several days once the "Arctic Air" arrives. As a matter a fact, by the end of next week, there will be an reinforcement of arctic air coming down. Lows in mby going below zero for the first time this Winter season.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Euro has warmed fairly significantly. I may soar into the single digits below zero on Sunday!

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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The Euro pounces on IA with widespread -20Fs and wind chills in -40f to -45F next Saturday. Bring it!!

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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12z Euro paints an impressive stretch of cold temps with Friday being the nail in the coffin. -8/-18?! 

1612440000-KRKEtiybqIM.png

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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I'm baffled by the absolute love/desire for way below zero temps and even lower windchills. What's neat about having -20 temps and -50 below zero windchills that cause so many problems (dead cars, frozen pipes, insane heating bills, hypothermia and death) and that you can't really enjoy being out in anyway?

To each their own, but it's always been a head scratcher for me when I see people getting stoked for..... really cold weather. Where nothing is going on action wise, except it's really cold outside....

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19 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

I'm baffled by the absolute love/desire for way below zero temps and even lower windchills. What's neat about having -20 temps and -50 below zero windchills that cause so many problems (dead cars, frozen pipes, insane heating bills, hypothermia and death) and that you can't really enjoy being out in anyway?

To each their own, but it's always been a head scratcher for me when I see people getting stoked for..... really cold weather. Where nothing is going on action wise, except it's really cold outside....

It’s a rare weather anomaly to have the Polar Vortex dislodged so far south into the mid latitudes.  Some folks don’t mind the cold (like me and many others on here). Just to experience something of that magnitude is a memory one will never forget.  Same goes for Heat...why do some people like 115F+ heat?  I had to deal with that type of Heat last summer for days on end in Arizona.  

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

It’s a rare weather anomaly to have the Polar Vortex dislodged so far south into the mid latitudes.  Some folks don’t mind the cold (like me and many others on here). Just to experience something of that magnitude is a memory one will never forget.  Same goes for Heat...why do some people like 115F+ heat?  I had to deal with that type of Heat last summer for days on end in Arizona.  

104° in 2012 is the highest temperature I’ve recorded here since 1996, but of course it’s probably much more of a humid heat than in Phoenix and therefore just as bad! The argument I usually make is I could easily survive sitting out under a shade tree for awhile at 100°+, but doing the same with heavy outerwear in below 0°f would freeze me to death before long, especially if windy. In pioneer times I sure would not have wanted to live in Iowa in winter! Back then they sometimes struggled to survive. Bitter cold can also be very unhandy for a livestock farmer depending on the setup.

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‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 39.3”

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2 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

I'm baffled by the absolute love/desire for way below zero temps and even lower windchills. What's neat about having -20 temps and -50 below zero windchills that cause so many problems (dead cars, frozen pipes, insane heating bills, hypothermia and death) and that you can't really enjoy being out in anyway?

To each their own, but it's always been a head scratcher for me when I see people getting stoked for..... really cold weather. Where nothing is going on action wise, except it's really cold outside....

Grew up in Minny. Ice Fishing, winter camping ALL of it.Nothing was ever to cold, just not correct gear.  I've slept outside in -40F - made snow forts in the Boundary Waters on 4 night winter trips in middle of FEB. I guess its' in my blood. But the biggest reason I love extreme cold is I heat my home with 2 wood burners and have been heating with wood every place I have lived outside college etc.... It's challenge when it's -20F out not to flip a switch and get heat but rather do it the olde fashioned way. Something in my blood, I guess, my wife thinks I'am odd but shes the first to gather around a stoked wood stove coming in from the cold. And btw-  extreme Heat kills more and does way more damage than  extreme cold. And yeah- I got make run to the wood shed-

PXL_20210204_212125471.jpg

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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7 minutes ago, Sparky said:

104° in 2012 is the highest temperature I’ve recorded here since 1996, but of course it’s probably much more of a humid heat than in Phoenix and therefore just as bad! The argument I usually make is I could easily survive sitting out under a shade tree for awhile at 100°+, but doing the same with heavy outerwear in below 0°f would freeze me to death before long, especially if windy. In pioneer times I sure would not have wanted to live in Iowa in winter! Back then they sometimes struggled to survive. Bitter cold can also be very unhandy for a livestock farmer depending on the setup.

I'd trade 115F dry heat vs 104F heat with high humidity any day of the week.  I agree with you that bitter cold can be more dangerous than heat if your NOT prepared.  NOAA says heat kills more people than cold does.  Regarding this upcoming cold spell, the duration of it is concerning and may cause more implications.  In recent PV visits, it came and went in 2 days top, but this coming cold spell could last almost a week long caused by all the blocking we have ongoing.  It'll be cold, no doubt about it, but at the same time, it's going to be a memorable experience.

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5 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Grew up in Minny. Ice Fishing, winter camping ALL of it.Nothing was ever to cold, just not correct gear.  I've slept outside in -40F - made snow forts in the Boundary Waters on 4 night winter trips in middle of FEB. I guess its' in my blood. But the biggest reason I love extreme cold is I heat my home with 2 wood burners and have been heating with wood every place I have lived outside college etc.... It's challenge when it's -20F out not to flip a switch and get heat but rather do it the olde fashioned way. Something in my blood, I guess, my wife thinks I'am odd but shes the first to gather around a stoked wood stove coming in from the cold.

PXL_20210204_212125471.jpg

Even with part of your face exposed? Breathing bitter cold air almost freezes my nostrils, or it feels funny! Lol

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‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 39.3”

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^^ face in bag. But you need fresh air at times and it's trick finding that fine line.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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6 minutes ago, Sparky said:

Even with part of your face exposed? Breathing bitter cold air almost freezes my nostrils, or it feels funny! Lol

Usually right around the zero mark my nose hairs start freezing and it's not painful but just uncomfortable enough to notice lol. Only thing I don't like about temps like that. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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OAX seems impressed with the cold coming. 

 

Temperatures throughout this forecast might be the bigger story
than snow. Today marks the beginning of a long stretch of cold
air. By Saturday 850mb temperatures crash into the teens below
zero. There is no end in sight, and in fact it only gets worse.
Longer-range guidance shows 850mb temperatures falling,
potentially, to 25 to 30 below zero by next Friday and Saturday
with an impressive surface high pressure area of 1051 mb. Looking
back at past weather balloon data for our office shows we`ve
never recorded an 850mb temperature of -30C or colder in February.
Even if we don`t see that dramatic of cold air, it`ll still be
well-below normal through the middle part of month and will
likely continue thereafter. For what it is worth, -30C at 850mb
would translate to daytime highs below zero, or colder.
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