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Arctic cold/LES


whatitdo

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hard PASS

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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  • Tom pinned this topic

anybody know what the highlighted means? Never heard of it before.

The weather theme for Friday into this weekend and at least early
next week will be the bitterly cold air as the upper level pattern
carves out a trough over much of the northern states. The coldest
shot will come Sunday morning with thickness down to 490dm over
northern Iowa and 850mb temperatures to around -30C. Wind chill
headlines will be needed as early as Saturday evening and likely
through Monday morning for some portions of the state, though it
looks likely there will be a period where most if not all of our
central Iowa counties may need a headline for the bitterly cold wind
chills. The cold air looks to relent to some degree next week, but
is not far away and it would only take another shortwave trough
dropping to bring another shot of bitterly cold air. For Sunday into
Monday, the 12z ECMWF extreme forecast index and the shift of tails
is starting to show a signal, which gives an idea of the magnitude
of this arctic air within climatology.

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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If you actually goto the link- some -70F Wind Chills showing up S.Manitoba. Can't remember the last time I saw that.  -75F or soo is -100F on the old Chart pre 2001 for us old geezers. I experience -100F WC one time on Lake Mille Lacs in C.MN in the winter of 95-96' -- 100lb propane tanks in shed of fish house froze solid. WAS an EXPERIENCE I will not forget.

sfctapp.us_nc.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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7 hours ago, Tom said:

The historically warm GL's and lack of ice cover is about to deliver the real deal snow blitz for the GL's over the next 10 days.  Your patience in the snow belts will be rewarded Bigly.

1.png

Looks to be too much of a WNW instead of a NW for here but that can always change last minute.

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Actually a rare good write-up from FGF.

Quote

Wednesday night - Thursday:

- Synoptics:

A broad upper trough passes through the region Wed PM-Thu AM
bringing with it a potent cold front on the head of a large polar
air mass. In the mid levels, there will likely be two or more short
wave impulses that focus ascent: one passing through the
Dakotas/Minnesota/southern Canada, and the other ejecting out of the
Central Plains into the western Great Lakes. The northern wave will
influence the CWA more than the southern.

- Accumulating snow potential:

The forecast currently reflects a scenario where the northern wave
remains on the weaker side and/or strengthens deeper within MB/ON.
This results in comparatively lesser amounts overall with light
QPF amounts under 0.2 inches for most locations within the CWA,
which can be translated to under 3 inches of snow. This scenario
is favored within the eyes of the ENS/EC/CMCE.

However there are complicating factors that greatly lessen
confidence in the snowfall forecast. Firstly, there is still a
chance one or more northern waves interact closer to the area
while become stronger, increasing snowfall potential via a more
defined synoptically induced snow band. This is a scenario
currently favored by GEFS/GFS/NAM.

Additionally, most guidance also appears to mingle some transient,
but notable fgen nestled in with the mid level trough passage
just behind the cold front Wednesday overnight into early
Thursday. So this continues the chance for brief (under 6 hours),
locally enhanced snowfall leading to higher amounts greater than 3
inches. Due to the transient nature of fgen, this could result in
one or more narrow bands of higher snowfall amounts draped across
the region. Location of these bands will be unknown until just
before the time of their development, thus confidence in snow
amounts remains low (less than 30%).

Overall, impacts from snowfall could range from very little to
locally impactful through heavy snowfall rates reducing visibility
and accumulating snowfall deteriorating travel conditions.

- Blowing snow potential:

In the absence of a strongly deepening mid level trough and
attendant sfc low near the area, winds don`t look overly strong.
This lessens the chance for widespread significant impacts from
blsn. Still, sustained winds between 25-35 mph and falling temps
into the single digits look to be enough to interact with the
somewhat modified snowpack and potentially new snow to get some
areas of blowing snow, mainly during the day Thursday. This most
likely scenario still brings visibility periodically under a half
mile in the typical locations like the open country within the Red
River Valley. So while travel may not be impossible, it still is
expected to be impacted Thursday.

- Icing potential:

A well advertised dry "warm" sector ahead of the trough brings the
chance for initial precip type to be a wintry mix of brief freezing
rain and/or sleet before switching to snow. Additionally, there may
be a period of freezing drizzle Wednesday afternoon/evening,
dependent on any leading impulses ahead of the trough to interact
with sufficiently deep saturation within the lowest layer. Both
scenarios will likley be brief and result in very light QPF amounts
under 0.1 inches. Thus impacts to travel from a light glaze to
perhaps locally one tenth of an inch should be low.

Friday - Monday:

Ensemble guidance and analogs all agree on a below average
temperature pattern starting Friday and lasting through next week.
Cold advection starts Thursday night and reaches its peak Saturday
night/Sunday.  Temperatures will remain below zero from Friday night
through Monday, with lows at night widespread -20s with daytime
highs single digits and teens below zero.  Main center of high is
well northwest of the area in Alberta and therefore there will be
enough of a gradient to give NW winds in the 10 to 20 mph range
Saturday through Sunday.  This wind may prevent extreme cold
temperatures from occuring at night, but the wind will give
hazardous wind chills in the -20s to -40s over the weekend.  Dry
weather is anticipated.  Sky cover a bit tougher to forecast with
center of high well northwest of our area, we may be prone to cloud
cover, especially MN.

 

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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This morning's Euro has backed off the extreme cold plunging south into Iowa early in the week, in favor of a slightly flatter pattern  producing long-duration very cold.  It doesn't bring the coldest air down until day 10.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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25 minutes ago, brianc400 said:

image.thumb.png.8add097ddc9a4ecd8a8d5045f0cf23ad.png

No way this plays out, but wouldn't that be something?

The above is likely WAY over done -- but just for the record the coldest IA had ever been is -47F in Elkader,IA on FEB 3rd 1996. Just to see a model go near there is nuts in itself.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Not so fast. -- Deeper snow pack, and wind. Doesn't take much when ND.NW.MN has little to offer this year. I;ve seen wind chills -45F in NW IA when they were 0F in NW MN. It does happen. ODD, but this is year is odd. NW IOWA is a D**n cold space when the wind blows with Nanook - much like ND.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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19 hours ago, jaster220 said:

hard PASS

To be clear I meant on the extreme cold

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Temps alone don't look super impressive, but could go a week without hitting 15 here which is pretty significant. GFS has a HIGH of 1 at KLNK for Monday. Probably overdone, but I wouldn't be surprised to have 3-4 days of highs in the single digits within this stretch. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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2 hours ago, whatitdo said:

Does NWS take into account LES when they forecast below normal precip for a good majority of the cold snap?

 

814prcp.new.gif

 

Just curious because weather app (which i never really look at) went from showing snowflakes to just cloudy for mby

Good to see the drought areas west of me in the green zone at least.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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3 hours ago, whatitdo said:

Does NWS take into account LES when they forecast below normal precip for a good majority of the cold snap?

 

814prcp.new.gif

 

Just curious because weather app (which i never really look at) went from showing snowflakes to just cloudy for mby

Weather apps are trash.  The iphone one has 40% chance of snow for me Friday.  LES in cold weather the lake is basically producing it itself.  It's so dry.  10 degrees it could be 30-1 ratio or higher so 6 inches of LES could be .1 qpf.  

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After dipping below zero Friday night, it is very possible that I may not get back above zero until next Friday. The earliest I could get back above zero is Wednesday.

Winter is kicking the door down. Just wish it was with a bit more snow on the ground. At least I'm not in Valley City, where the ground is literally brown.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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It stays frigid for several days once the "Arctic Air" arrives. As a matter a fact, by the end of next week, there will be an reinforcement of arctic air coming down. Lows in mby going below zero for the first time this Winter season.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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