whatitdo Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 yikes. though the brunt of the cold misses michigan this run, im assuming thats still a great signal for LES @Stacsh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jarod Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Hopefully we end up with a mostly west wind with enough moisture to make the snow really add up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 40 minutes ago, Jarod said: Hopefully we end up with a mostly west wind with enough moisture to make the snow really add up. Depends on another system. Thinking WNW after starting from WSW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Praying for a 340-345 degree wind up here. Start stacking some flakes for a change!!! -47 windchill Sunday night sounds fun too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 hard PASS Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 The historically warm GL's and lack of ice cover is about to deliver the real deal snow blitz for the GL's over the next 10 days. Your patience in the snow belts will be rewarded Bigly. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 GFS from HR 90 to 240 doesn’t get above zero in most of WI/MN That includes high temps 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 anybody know what the highlighted means? Never heard of it before. The weather theme for Friday into this weekend and at least early next week will be the bitterly cold air as the upper level pattern carves out a trough over much of the northern states. The coldest shot will come Sunday morning with thickness down to 490dm over northern Iowa and 850mb temperatures to around -30C. Wind chill headlines will be needed as early as Saturday evening and likely through Monday morning for some portions of the state, though it looks likely there will be a period where most if not all of our central Iowa counties may need a headline for the bitterly cold wind chills. The cold air looks to relent to some degree next week, but is not far away and it would only take another shortwave trough dropping to bring another shot of bitterly cold air. For Sunday into Monday, the 12z ECMWF extreme forecast index and the shift of tails is starting to show a signal, which gives an idea of the magnitude of this arctic air within climatology. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 12z GFS is even colder for Monday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 If you actually goto the link- some -70F Wind Chills showing up S.Manitoba. Can't remember the last time I saw that. -75F or soo is -100F on the old Chart pre 2001 for us old geezers. I experience -100F WC one time on Lake Mille Lacs in C.MN in the winter of 95-96' -- 100lb propane tanks in shed of fish house froze solid. WAS an EXPERIENCE I will not forget. 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 7 hours ago, Tom said: The historically warm GL's and lack of ice cover is about to deliver the real deal snow blitz for the GL's over the next 10 days. Your patience in the snow belts will be rewarded Bigly. Looks to be too much of a WNW instead of a NW for here but that can always change last minute. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Probably won't get out of the double digits below zero here on Sunday. 2 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 12z Ukie has a low of -47F just to the NW of Des Moines on Monday morning. Strangely that temp is almost identical in Celsius! Rare air! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 5 minutes ago, St Paul Storm said: 12z Ukie has a low of -47F just to the NW of Des Moines on Monday morning. Strangely that temp is almost identical in Celsius! Rare air! The only temp at which both are equal is........-40!!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Actually a rare good write-up from FGF. Quote Wednesday night - Thursday: - Synoptics: A broad upper trough passes through the region Wed PM-Thu AM bringing with it a potent cold front on the head of a large polar air mass. In the mid levels, there will likely be two or more short wave impulses that focus ascent: one passing through the Dakotas/Minnesota/southern Canada, and the other ejecting out of the Central Plains into the western Great Lakes. The northern wave will influence the CWA more than the southern. - Accumulating snow potential: The forecast currently reflects a scenario where the northern wave remains on the weaker side and/or strengthens deeper within MB/ON. This results in comparatively lesser amounts overall with light QPF amounts under 0.2 inches for most locations within the CWA, which can be translated to under 3 inches of snow. This scenario is favored within the eyes of the ENS/EC/CMCE. However there are complicating factors that greatly lessen confidence in the snowfall forecast. Firstly, there is still a chance one or more northern waves interact closer to the area while become stronger, increasing snowfall potential via a more defined synoptically induced snow band. This is a scenario currently favored by GEFS/GFS/NAM. Additionally, most guidance also appears to mingle some transient, but notable fgen nestled in with the mid level trough passage just behind the cold front Wednesday overnight into early Thursday. So this continues the chance for brief (under 6 hours), locally enhanced snowfall leading to higher amounts greater than 3 inches. Due to the transient nature of fgen, this could result in one or more narrow bands of higher snowfall amounts draped across the region. Location of these bands will be unknown until just before the time of their development, thus confidence in snow amounts remains low (less than 30%). Overall, impacts from snowfall could range from very little to locally impactful through heavy snowfall rates reducing visibility and accumulating snowfall deteriorating travel conditions. - Blowing snow potential: In the absence of a strongly deepening mid level trough and attendant sfc low near the area, winds don`t look overly strong. This lessens the chance for widespread significant impacts from blsn. Still, sustained winds between 25-35 mph and falling temps into the single digits look to be enough to interact with the somewhat modified snowpack and potentially new snow to get some areas of blowing snow, mainly during the day Thursday. This most likely scenario still brings visibility periodically under a half mile in the typical locations like the open country within the Red River Valley. So while travel may not be impossible, it still is expected to be impacted Thursday. - Icing potential: A well advertised dry "warm" sector ahead of the trough brings the chance for initial precip type to be a wintry mix of brief freezing rain and/or sleet before switching to snow. Additionally, there may be a period of freezing drizzle Wednesday afternoon/evening, dependent on any leading impulses ahead of the trough to interact with sufficiently deep saturation within the lowest layer. Both scenarios will likley be brief and result in very light QPF amounts under 0.1 inches. Thus impacts to travel from a light glaze to perhaps locally one tenth of an inch should be low. Friday - Monday: Ensemble guidance and analogs all agree on a below average temperature pattern starting Friday and lasting through next week. Cold advection starts Thursday night and reaches its peak Saturday night/Sunday. Temperatures will remain below zero from Friday night through Monday, with lows at night widespread -20s with daytime highs single digits and teens below zero. Main center of high is well northwest of the area in Alberta and therefore there will be enough of a gradient to give NW winds in the 10 to 20 mph range Saturday through Sunday. This wind may prevent extreme cold temperatures from occuring at night, but the wind will give hazardous wind chills in the -20s to -40s over the weekend. Dry weather is anticipated. Sky cover a bit tougher to forecast with center of high well northwest of our area, we may be prone to cloud cover, especially MN. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Lows in the -20s combined with wind gusts well into the 20s will make for an interesting experience. It's super rare to get that combo. Could see wind chills colder than January 2019 with that wind speed. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianc400 Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 No way this plays out, but wouldn't that be something? 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Might not see 0 for a bit after Sat night! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Wind chills into the -50s in my area on Euro Monday morning. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 This morning's Euro has backed off the extreme cold plunging south into Iowa early in the week, in favor of a slightly flatter pattern producing long-duration very cold. It doesn't bring the coldest air down until day 10. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 25 minutes ago, brianc400 said: No way this plays out, but wouldn't that be something? The above is likely WAY over done -- but just for the record the coldest IA had ever been is -47F in Elkader,IA on FEB 3rd 1996. Just to see a model go near there is nuts in itself. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Day 10 EURO wind chills--- hmmm... 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said: Day 10 EURO wind chills--- hmmm... Would take a significant amount of blocking to make wind chills 15 degrees colder in Iowa than the Dakotas and Northwoods. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Not so fast. -- Deeper snow pack, and wind. Doesn't take much when ND.NW.MN has little to offer this year. I;ve seen wind chills -45F in NW IA when they were 0F in NW MN. It does happen. ODD, but this is year is odd. NW IOWA is a D**n cold space when the wind blows with Nanook - much like ND. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 19 hours ago, jaster220 said: hard PASS To be clear I meant on the extreme cold Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 There is certainly a trend to not dig the extreme cold as far south. 4 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 17 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: There is certainly a trend to not dig the extreme cold as far south. Yes please. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 GR NWS is less bullish on LES today. Small flake size and no real boosters coming in. Hopefully the EURO pans out for Sunday and we get a boost. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatitdo Posted February 3, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Does NWS take into account LES when they forecast below normal precip for a good majority of the cold snap? Just curious because weather app (which i never really look at) went from showing snowflakes to just cloudy for mby 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Temps alone don't look super impressive, but could go a week without hitting 15 here which is pretty significant. GFS has a HIGH of 1 at KLNK for Monday. Probably overdone, but I wouldn't be surprised to have 3-4 days of highs in the single digits within this stretch. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 2 hours ago, whatitdo said: Does NWS take into account LES when they forecast below normal precip for a good majority of the cold snap? Just curious because weather app (which i never really look at) went from showing snowflakes to just cloudy for mby Good to see the drought areas west of me in the green zone at least. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 This morning's Euro at day 10. This should be quite a stretch of winter coming up. 4 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Let's goooooo Quote 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 3 hours ago, whatitdo said: Does NWS take into account LES when they forecast below normal precip for a good majority of the cold snap? Just curious because weather app (which i never really look at) went from showing snowflakes to just cloudy for mby Weather apps are trash. The iphone one has 40% chance of snow for me Friday. LES in cold weather the lake is basically producing it itself. It's so dry. 10 degrees it could be 30-1 ratio or higher so 6 inches of LES could be .1 qpf. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 GR NWS says up to 2 feet of snow in some locations by this time next week. That would double our totals for the year! About time West Michigan. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 After dipping below zero Friday night, it is very possible that I may not get back above zero until next Friday. The earliest I could get back above zero is Wednesday. Winter is kicking the door down. Just wish it was with a bit more snow on the ground. At least I'm not in Valley City, where the ground is literally brown. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 It stays frigid for several days once the "Arctic Air" arrives. As a matter a fact, by the end of next week, there will be an reinforcement of arctic air coming down. Lows in mby going below zero for the first time this Winter season. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Euro has warmed fairly significantly. I may soar into the single digits below zero on Sunday! 4 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 The Euro pounces on IA with widespread -20Fs and wind chills in -40f to -45F next Saturday. Bring it!! 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 12z Euro paints an impressive stretch of cold temps with Friday being the nail in the coffin. -8/-18?! 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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